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December 15, 2016
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December 12, 1969
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Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0151 S e*-1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret 50: 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1 Approved For Release 20030m~/T1RCIRDP79T00975A015100110001-1 No. 0297/69 12 December 1969 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENTS South Vietnam: Security forces at Tan Son Nhut have been put on alert as a result of coup rumors. (Page 1) Japan: Economic issues are playing an important part in the election campaign. (Page 3) Indonesia: The Consortium has accepted Indonesia's request for a high level of new aid. (Page 4) Israel: The new coalition indicates the tough for- eign policy and military stance will be maintained. (Page 5) Yugoslavia-Bulgaria: Talks at the foreign minister level have been temporarily broken off. (Page 6) Brazil: Charges of brutality toward prisoners could seriously embarrass the government. (Page 7) Ecuador: The President has replaced two cabinet min- isters and is under pressure to remove another. (Page 8) Canada: Trudeau's popularity has declined consider- ably. (Page 9) Libya: Relations with US (Page 10) Korea: Hijacking (Page 10) Japan-Philippines: Export credits (Page 11) European Communities - Spain: Negotiations (Page 11) Chile: Military plotting (Page 12) Approved For Release 20031 &{3R(h DP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003 MA Rb RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 South Vietnam: South Vietnamese Air Force units at the Tan Son Nhut headquarters complex have been put on alert and the National Police guard force there has been doubled as a result of new coup ru- mors in Saigon. There is no evidence of any actual coup plotting in the initial reporting from Saigon, however, and the top leadership there does not seem unusually nervous. Nevertheless, even these limited precau- tionary measures might undercut government efforts to develop an image of stability, confidence, and constitutionality. Regime opponents almost certainly will seek to exploit this evidence of regime nerv- ousness, and considerable behind-the-scenes political maneuvering is likely to ensue. The coup rumors, the government's precautions, and any actual plotting that may have occurred come at a time of generally heightened political activity in Saigon. These all seem to be related to attempts to take advantage of the bitter reaction against the government's tax and price hike in late October. The reaction has been particularly strong among gov- ernment and military officials. For most of the past year, key military leaders apparently have recognized that the overthrow of the constitutional government would entail a serious risk of losing US support for the war effort. The recent flurry of coup rumors, however, suggests that some military officers again think that a coup might be a practical possibility. Those opposition ele- ments who fear Vietnamization is a prelude to a deal with the Communists, rather than a way to continue the fight in the absence of progress on negotia- tions, may also be persuaded to think in terms of a coup. (continued) 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1 Approved For Release 200 3706 W Cl -RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003/9j7(jR(R4-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 The government's failure to keep opposition elements convinced of its stability is partly caused by President Thieu's growing suspiciousness and his consequent tendency to isolate himself from all but a close group of advisers. Thieu's handling of the austerity tax and his public position on the My Lai affair both point to an insensitivity to the polit- ical situation. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0IR:BJh-' bP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 200,'/ JA-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Japan: Economic issues are playing an important part in the current election campaign. Opposition party candidates for the general elections on 27 December are largely ignoring inter- national issues like Okinawa and focusing on bread- and-butter matters such as continuing inflation and growing rice surpluses. The ruling conservative party candidates are also playing up local issues, but at the same time are benefiting from popular reaction to the Okinawan reversion settlement. Popular concern centers particularly on higher than usual increases in consumer prices in recent months. Inflation is having a particular impact on the rural population, which traditionally has been a primary source of electoral support for the ruling conservatives. Rural voters are especially concerned over the government's decision this year not to in- crease the prices paid to rice producers. The Sato administration, however, is reluctant to take any more drastic measures, such as cutting subsidy payments to reduce the growing rice surplus, just before the elections. Eventually, however, the government will have to find some politically palatable formula for reducing the rice surplus be- cause the problem is going to get worse over the next few years. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3 Approved For Release 200 Wk -. A--RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/Q J P 1RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Indonesia: A harmonious Consortium meeting in The Hague accepted Indonesia's request for a high level of new aid, but there is likely to be disagree- ment over terms for settling Indonesia's debt at the meeting in Paris today. The Intergovernment Group on Indonesia closed its two and one-half-day meeting in almost complete agreement concerning Indonesia's request for $600 million in aid for a 15-month period ending April 1971. The amount requested is being supported by the International Monetary Fund and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and roughly matches pledges for $500 million during the current year, not all of which was utilized. Food aid re- quirement is estimated at $140 million and nonfood aid at $460 million. Although the meeting was not a pledge session, several delegations indicated their intentions to increase their assistance for the coming year. The Japanese and French delegations, which in the past have usually expressed serious reservations as to the total aid request and other aspects of the Indonesian situation, joined other donors in approv- ing the request as well as Indonesia's over-all performance. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 20031 f l1 ft.RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 20031, .R(CR'V -RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 Israel: The composition of Mrs. Meir's new coalition government indicates Israel's already tough foreign policy and military stance will be maintained. tic issues and in foreign policy. Thus it seems certain that Israel will remain uncompromising in The broad coalition which Mrs. Meir has finally hammered out in over a month of party negotiations gives cabinet representation to parties accounting for more than 100 of the 120 members of the Knesset. Those remaining outside--some 18 or so--are a mixed bag of Communists, mavericks, rightist rebels, and four members of former prime minister David Ben- Gurion's party. The most striking change in the composition of the 24-member cabinet is the stronger presence of the rightist Gahal Party, which wrested six posts from Mrs. Meir; it previously had two. Gahal fol- lows a militant hard line toward the Arabs and advo- cates increased Israeli settlement of the Arab lands and a "don't give an inch" policy regarding the re- turn of the occupied Arab territories. Mrs. Meir's Alignment holds 14 of the posts, including the key ministries of defense, foreign affairs, and finance. Gahal, however, appears to have obtained considerable leverage on policy through its ability to break up the national unity coalition. Mrs. Meir could easily have formed a smaller coalition majority without either the religious parties or Gahal, but she preferred to establish the broader coalition to keep interparty differences within the family and to project the image of na- tional unity. In so doing, Mrs. Meir apparently decided to sacrifice some flexibility both on domes- its attitude toward a peace settlement. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/g p 1RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 200:/jl:E4-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Yugoslavia-Bulgaria: Talks in Belgrade at the foreign minister level reportedly were broken off temporarily on Tuesday. Bulgaria's Ivan Bashev proposed a joint decla- ration in which Sofia would renounce its territorial claims on Yugoslav Macedonia if Belgrade would admit that Macedonians living in Yugoslavia are ethnically Bulgarian. The Yugoslavs rejected the offer out of hand, seeing it as undermining their own position that the Macedonians constitute a separate nation- ality. They also regard it as confirmation that Sofia, despite statements to the contrary, has no intention of dropping irredentism. The Bulgarians possibly made the offer to dis- credit Belgrade's charge that Sofia is to blame for continuing polemics, knowing that it would be re- jected. Belgrade also will probably fail to per- suade Bashev that the Bulgarian press should stop claiming that its troops played a major role in liberating Yugoslavia during World War II. These claims infuriate the Yugoslavs, who consider them- selves responsible for expelling the Nazis. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 20041018fljgA-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003/ bk -1 PTRDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 25X1 Brazil: Charges of brutality toward prisoners could seriously iously embarrass the government. The accusations, made by the news media and some members of the Catholic hierarchy, are an out- growth of an all-out campaign to repress terrorism in several urban areas, especially Sao Paulo. Mili- tary and civilian security officials have arrested many suspected terrorists, their relatives, and other persons who might have information on terrorist ac- tivities. Those detained have included students, opposition politicians, and clergymen. Some prison- ers have been tortured to extract information, and at least one person has died as a result of beatings. Several others have been severely injured. .The justice minister has said that the govern- ment has no evidence of torture, but will severely punish anyone found responsible for such acts. Of- ficials of the new Medici administration apparently believe that a public investigation may be necessary to clear the government's name, but this could cause serious difficulties in the security forces. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/i WW. RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/O;DP79T00975A015100110001-1 Ecuador: President Velasco has replaced two cabinet ministers and is being pressured by striking teachers to remove the minister of education. The new finance minister, Luis Gomez, apparently was chosen for his ability rather than allegiance to Velasco. The previous minister had failed to secure foreign loans to improve Ecuador's serious fiscal situation. In a surprise move, Velasco also replaced the secretary general of administration, reportedly because he had lost the President's confidence. The country's teachers are entering the fourth week of their strike to bring about the dismissal of the minister of education. Because teachers tradi- tionally enjoy considerable public support in Ecua- dor, Velasco has treated this challenge with unusual discretion. On 1 December he announced that the gov- ernment was dipping into the 1970 budget for funds to give teachers some of the back pay owed them. The President's support for his minister of education, however, has not weakened publicly. More cabinet changes may be in the offing. Sources close to the government say that the minis- ters have been talking about submitting their joint resignations in order to leave the President free to appoint a new cabinet in 1970. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/WL3R&AT0,DP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003/ RCLWkDP79TOO975AO1 Canada: Prime Minister Trudeau's popularity has declined considerably, according to the latest Gallup poll. The colorful leader's standing suffered partic- ularly among English-speaking Canadians who are dis- satisfied with his seeming preoccupation with Quebec and neglect, of the problems of other provinces. He is also less popular among young Canadians than older people. The Gallup poll findings differ to some extent from those of a poll conducted recently by Executive, a magazine directed at businessmen. By a margin of four to one, Executive readers indicated that they would vote to re-elect. Trudeau and his Liberal Party confreres. It should be noted, however, that this poll was taken before the presentation of the gov- ernment's proposals to raise taxes on small busi- nesses and middle income earners. Trudeau has been hurt by his off-the-cuff re- marks such as the suggestion to Western farmers to "sell your own wheat." Also causing problems have been the government's lack of major progress in housing, poverty, and regional development, and its ineffectiveness in dealing with aid to Biafran ref- ugees. Although the Prime Minister's image has been tarnished, it has not been destroyed, however. If an election were held tomorrow, he probably would win. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/Q WI RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/ f,RFj4 -RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Libya: The military junta may attempt to im- plicate the US in the coup plotting that led to the recent arrest of two cabinet members. Speaking over Libyan television, junta leader Qaddafi noted that the plot coincided with the beginning of negotiations on US withdrawal from Wheelus Air Base. He alleged that the plotters had "income or support from the bases." Qaddafi also alluded to former minister of defense Hawwaz's recent dealings with two US firms that have been having problems with the Libyan Gov- ernment. Qaddafi's speech suggests that the Libyans will probably take an extremely uncompromising stance in next week's negotiations. Korea: Pyongyang has not commented as yet on yesterday's hijacking of a South Korean commercial airliner to North Korea. The circumstances are still under investigation by South Korean author- ities. The Seoul government so far has responded in low key to the incident and has indicated to US officials that it will seek the release of the pas- sengers, crew, and plane through the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Korean Military Armistice Commission. In an earlier hijacking case in 1958, this procedure resulted in the release within a month of the crew and those passengers choosing to return to South Korea. The plane was not returned. (continued) Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 200 Q6Llk:U-RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Approved For Release 200 TH `' -RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Japan-Philippines: Tokyo has suspended ex- tending export credits to the Philippines. According to Japanese Ministry of Finance officials, future extensions will depend largely on what the Filipinos do to remedy their deteriorating foreign exchange situation. Tokyo probably believes that the Philip- pines could become, like Indonesia, unable to meet debt repayments. Japan and most other major creditors would like Manila to accept International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidance in remedying the situation. So far Philip- pine government leaders have balked at any such sug- gestion because they think the terms would be oner- ous and grate on nationalistic sentiments. The growing pressure from creditors to rectify the coun- try's foreign exchange difficulties, however, seems to be softening the Filipino attitude about accepting IMF guidance. European Communities - Spain: Negotiations last week on a preferential trading arrangement between the European Communities (EC) and Spain ended with one major and several minor points unresolved. It had earlier been hoped that the arrangement could be concluded at this meetin . T ese negotiations, Which Spain hopes will lead to its ultimate association or membership in the EC, are not expected to resume again until late January or early February. (continued) 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 200SI06 1 -RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1 Approved For Release 2003 /A&4 Va RDP79T00975A015100110001-1 Chile: The nature and extent of military plot- ting against the Frei government has been further obscured by the confusing language of an army com- munique of 10 December. It listed some alleged conspirators, but said that none had been detained. Neither the role of General Roberto Viaux nor the activities and relationships of several disaffected officer groups have been clarified. Opposition political factions are clamoring for the government to release more information on the alleged plotting, and these demands are likely to be echoed by the in- creasingly confused public. 12 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1 SECRET Secret Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1 Secret Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15100110001-1