CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015200030001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 16, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
16 December 1969
State Department review completed
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No. 0300/69
16 December 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Thailand: Bangkok's troubled relations with the US
are being further strained. (Page 1)
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Japan - Communist China: The Sato government has re-
sponded swiftly to the US-Chinese talks. (Page 4)
East Germany - West Germany: Ulbricht has cautiously
hinted that Pankow is willing to negotiate. (Page 5)
Nordic Economic Union: The Nordic prime ministers
have persuaded the Finns not to withdraw. (Page 6)
Spain - Eastern Europe - USSR: Madrid is continuing
its effort to improve relations. (Page 7)
USSR - Central African Republic: Moscow has an op-
portunity to expand economic relations. (Page 8)
Burundi: A cabinet reshuffle may ease tensions.
(Page 9)
Panama: Opposition to the. ouster of: T:orri.jbs is
developing. (Page 10)
Netherlands Antilles: A new coalition government
has been formed. Page 1.1)
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Warsaw Pact: Defense ministers (Page 1
Czechoslovakia: Dubcek banished (Page 1.3)
USSR-Canada: Wheat deal (Page 1.3)
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Thailand: Bangkok's troubled relations with
the US are being further strained.
The Thai are deeply concerned over what they
view as US interference with a deal for the sale of
20,000 tons of Thai rice to Saigon. Some cabinet
officials view South Vietnamese withdrawal from the
rice negotiations--with the assertion that it was
at US "orders"--and the substitution of a US rice
delivery to Saigon as clear evidence of US chicanery.
Foreign Minister Thanat has led the attack, implying
to the US ambassador that the American action was
deliberately cutthroat and labeling as specious the
ambassador's explanations to the contrary.
Bangkok is reacting strongly to each new sign
that appears to be a downgrading of Thai interests
by Washington. Thai leaders are apprehensive over
what they believe to be a weakening in the US com-
mitment to Thailand's security, and they are dis-
mayed over criticism in the US of Thailand's role
in the Vietnam war.
Bangkok is apparently prepared to pursue the
rice issue forcefully in an effort to regain an ap-
pearance of equality in its partnership with the US.
t
o
Although the Thai have been careful in the past
mute their differences with the US, both Thanat and
Prime Minister Thanom have made the issue a central
theme in recent press conferences. Thanom also
said that his government plans to put the contro-
versy on the top of its list of things to discuss
during Vice President Agnew's coming visit to Bang-
kok. Thanat has already warned the US ambassador
that a formal protest may be made if Washington is
not "responsive" to his strong verbal protest.
The Thai, however, are aware of the limited
leverage that they can apply to the US. While
pressing hard for greater US recognition, for in-
stance in the rice trade, they are unlikely to
carry the current dispute beyond the limits of pro-
test.
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Japan - Communist China: The Sato administra-
tion for domestic political reasons has responded
swiftly to the announcement of new US - Communist
China contacts in Warsaw.
Prime Minister Sato reportedly has called for
official talks between Tokyo and Peking to begin
"the earlier the better," at a location convenient
to the Chinese. Sato made the statement while cam-
paigning for the general elections scheduled for
27 December. Another high official on Saturday said
that the government was considering talks at the
ambassadorial level.
The Sato administration's quick response to
the news from Warsaw will take considerable steam
out of the opposition parties' use of the China is-
sue to attack the government. In the past the op-
position parties have criticized the government's
handling of ties with Peking and have tried to
capitalize on popular sentiment in Japan for im-
proving relations with mainland China. Furthermore,
important elements within the ruling party support
closer ties with Peking.
Despite its campaign oratory and mindful of
Japan's economic and security interests in Taiwan,
the Sato administration will move cautiously in any
effort to broaden its ties with Peking.
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Sato, however, does not want to be left behind
by any US initiative toward China, particularly
with the elections coming up next week and elections
in 1970 for leadership of the government party.
The Japanese press is already urging the government
not to "miss the bus" if it proves possible to en-
gage in meaningful diplomatic dialogue with Peking.
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East Germany - West Germany: Party leader Ul-
bricht has cautiously hinted that Pankow is willing
to negotiate with Bonn.
Speaking at the central committee plenum on 13
December, Ulbricht indirectly acknowledged Chancellor
Brandt's offer to begin negotiations without discrim-
ination, and remarked that such negotiations can be
started. Ulbricht apparently did not insist on pre-
conditions for talks and seemed to be inviting an
approach from Bonn.
Available excerpts from Ulbricht's long speech
indicate that he did not demand that Bonn extend de
jure recognition to East Germany. At one point,
however, he stated that normalization of relations
"means" recognition of East Germany as an equal,
sovereign state. He also said that Pankow considers
it necessary for the two Germanies to reach an agree-
ment that is valid under international law and is
based on Bonn's "political recognition" of East Ger-
many. Although ambiguous, these statements suggest
that Pankow now may be willing to accept de facto
recognition. Brandt has acknowledged the existence
of two German states but maintains that relations
between the two Germanies have a special quality and
that Bonn cannot give full de jure recognition.
Like other East German spokesmen, Ulbricht com-
mented that Brandt's government program contained
some positive aspects. He said that Pankow consid-
ers Bonn's signing of the nuclear nonproliferation
treaty an element of "renewal." He also claimed,
however, that Brandt's foreign policy program was
full of contradictions, and denounced Bonn's attempt
to prevent other countries from recognizing East
Germany. Ulbricht insisted several times that Bonn
must recognize East Germany's borders, renounce all
authority over nuclear, biological, and chemical
weapons, and renounce the Munich agreement of 1938
as invalid from its beginning.
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Nordic Economic Union: The Nordic prime minis-
ters have persuaded the Finns not to withdraw from
negotiations on the proposed Nordic Economic Union
(NORDEC).
Prior to the meeting of the four Nordic prime
ministers late last week, Finnish Prime Minister
Koivisto had advised the governments of Denmark,
Norway, and Sweden that lack of unity within his
government prevented Finnish participation in NORDEC
negotiations until after the parliamentary elections
in March. Copenhagen and Oslo responded by calling
for adherence to the original schedule, which aimed
for presentation of the NORDEC treaty at the Febru-
ary meeting of the Nordic Council.
Faced with the possibility that these differ-
ences might seriously damage the project, the four
Nordic prime ministers agreed to loosen their nego-
tiating timetable. They insisted, however, that
these negotiations continue without interruption.
The prime ministers' decision not only rescues
the Finns from the embarrassment arising out of
their pre-election political infighting, but also
shores up the Norwegian and Danish governments' po-
sitions against their Social Democratic opponents.
The latter have strongly backed the NORDEC idea and
have persistently charged their governments with a
desire to dump the project and try for entry into
the European Communities instead. The postponement
of the deadline also gives the four governments an-
other chance to back away from the confrontation
building up over Swedish insistence that a common
external tariff be introduced from the outset.
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Spain - Eastern Europe - USSR: Madrid expects
to establish diplomatic relations with Hungary with-
in the next few weeks and with Czechoslovakia shortly
thereafter as part of its continuing effort to im-
prove relations with Eastern Europe.
Formal relations may be set up by exchanging
commercial and consular delegations staffed by per-
sonnel with diplomatic status. This arrangement
would be similar to that which Spain established
with Romania in 1967 and with Poland last July.
Eastern Europe and the USSR constitute only a
small part of Spain's total trade, but this trade
has been growing steadily since the early 1960s.
It rose from $28.1 million in 1961 to $151.6 mil-
lion last year. Spain is interested in encouraging
a further increase as part of its plan to improve
exports. In addition it wants to guard against the
possibility of a failure in the negotiations between
Spain and the European Communities for a preferen-
tial trade agreement.
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USSR - Central African Republic: The USSR,
rebuffed in the mid-1960s, now is being offered an
opportunity to expand its economic relations in the
Central African Republic (CAR).
A delegation of 12 CAR officials, including
several ministers of economic departments, left
yesterday for the USSR. The group reportedly will
negotiate a commercial agreement and discuss the
purchase of passenger-cargo aircraft such as the
Soviet AN-24 transport. A trade pact, drawn up in
December 1966 but never signed, has been in abeyance
since then.
The Soviets have maintained a limited economic
presence in the CAR. Only about 25 Soviet teachers
and medical personnel are in the country. Aeroflot,
the Soviet airline, however, began service to Bangui
in mid-November.
President Bokassa is trying to find new sources
of foreign aid for the country, which is having se-
vere financial difficulties. He probably feels that
there is little hope in obtaining increased assist-
ance from France, the principal aid donor.
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Burundi: President Micombero's cabinet re-
shuffle has eased pressures that have been mounting
over the past two months.
Foreign Minister Ntawurishira was ousted in
order to facilitate Micombero's efforts to mend
fences with Belgium, Burundi's major source of aid.
The Belgians were irritated by Ntawurishira's per-
sistent accusations that their embassy had aided
coup plotters last September. Hopefully, Brussels
will be satisfied by his dismissal.
The modified cabinet gives slightly improved
stature to two important Tutsi extremists, which
may please some who have become disenchanted with
Micombero's policy of tribal reconciliation. On
the other hand, by again granting cabinet posts to
several members of the majority Hutu tribe, Micom-
bero has indicated he will continue this policy.
His gesture may even presage greater leniency toward
the-handful of Hutus who face a possible death sen-
tence for allegedly masterminding the coup planning
last September.
The cabinet changes were probably timed to
coincide with Micombero's trip to Rwanda this Thurs-
day for a conference with the presidents of Rwanda
and Congo (Kinshasa). His efforts to end the
Burundi-Belgian impasse may facilitate his role in
discussions of regional economic planning, and his
gesture toward the Hutus should impress the Hutu-
led regime of Rwanda. Finally, Micombero's attempt
reclude
ht
p
to mollify Burundi's extremists mig
their plotting against him while he is out of the
country.
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C Panama: Opposition to the ouster of General
Torrijos is developing.
There are indications that the Chiriqui, Veraguas,
and Tocumen National Guard garrisons will not join
Colonels Silvera and Sanjur, who yesterday removed
Torrijos from his post as Guard commandant.
Torrijos, who was in Mexico when the dissident
officers moved against him, last night was in El
Salvador conferring with the Panamanian ambassador.
He may try to go to Panama's second largest city,
David, where the majority of his support now exists.
Silvera and Sanjur apparently hope to isolate these
forces before Torrijos arrives.
Thus far Silvera and Sanjur have been able to
gain the support of the majority of the National
Guard. If Torrijos and his supporters seriously
contest this seizure of power, however, the cleav-
ages within the Guard may widen and ld degenerate
into armed clashes.
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Netherlands Antilles: A government finally has
been formed after three months of political wran-
gling.
The new government will replace the interim ad-
ministration that has governed since the destructive
riots last May. It is headed by Minister-President
Petronia, who has been trying to form a government
since the elections on 5 September in which no party
received a majority. The new coalition is composed
of the Democratic Party (DP), its traditional ally
the Aruba Patriotic Party (PPA), and the Workers
Front.
The Workers Front, a leftist party formed after
the riots last May, has been awarded two ministerial
posts for cooperating in the formation of the new
government. The DP and the PPA--both relatively
moderate--will receive three cabinet seats each.
The inclusion of the Workers Front in the new gov-
ernment should reduce the chances of a recurrence
of the May disorders. These were caused in large
part. by dis.conte.nt :iri,_t1 e lab.=..movement .over -th.e
high rate of unemployment and the lack of adequate
government social welfare programs.
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Warsaw Pact: The Committee of Defense Minis-
ters will hold its first meeting this month in Mos-
cow. The "state of the Pact armies and measures
for strengthening the defense capacity of the mem-
ber states" will be examined, according to a Buda-
pest radiobroadcast. The committee, which was es-
tablished at the Pact summit meeting in Budapest in
March 1969, is charged with reviewing the Pact's
military requirements and drawing up proposals for
increasing the effectiveness of the joint armed
forces. Another newly established Pact body, the
Military Council, met in Moscow last week, probably
to discuss implementing changes in the Pact's com-
mand structure agreed to at the Budapest meeting.
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Czechoslovakia: The virtual banishment of
Alexander Du ce to Turkey as Prague's ambassador
is significant for what it suggests concerning party
chief Husak's intentions toward the 1968 reformers
and the 1969 dissidents. Like Dubcek, liberals
ousted from power probably will be kept outside the
mainstream of political life, and those who are less
prestigious than the former first secretary could
be reduced to eking out a bare existence. Husak
recently said that Dubcek would be given a chance
to redeem himself, but there has been no indication
from Dubcek that he wishes to recant and to win the
favor of the present leadership. Because Turkey is
a non-Communist country, the appointment also hints
that well-known mavericks such as Dubcek will be
given the opportunity to defect, presumably on the
theory that exiles seldom have political influence
in 1-hPir homeland and can easily be discredited.
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USSR-Canada: The USSR has signed a 3.4 million-
ton wheat deal with Canada, covering a purchase obli-
gation under an agreement that had expired in August.
Two million tons are to be shipped during 1970, part
of which may be used to supply Soviet foreign grain
clients. The deal provides specifically that Cuba
is to receive 260,000 tons in the form of flour next
year. Shipping dates for the remainder of the wheat
ws the con-
ll
f
o
o
were not designated. The agreement
clusion of a mediocre harvest in the USSR.
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