CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 17, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2004/03/17: CIA-RDP79T00975A01 -
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
E.< 0
17 December 1969
State Department review completed
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
 Approved For Release 2004ee7 ]Rrf-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
No. 0301/69
17 December 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR: There will be a slight increase in the ex-
plicit defense budget for 1970. (Page 1)
USSR-Japan: Moscow has strongly attacked Sato's
foreign policy. (Page 2)
Libya: Negotiations on the status of Wheelus Air
Base have begun on a harsh note. (Page 4)
Panama: Torrijos has returned to power. (Page 5)
Guatemala: Recent terrorist attacks may be the start
of Communist efforts to disrupt the election period.
(Page 6)
Dahomey: The government remains in a state of gen-
eral confusion. (Page 7)
IAEA: The agency is under pressure to establish its
position on nuclear safeguards. (Page 8)
25X1
Peru: Debt refinancing
(Page 9)
Czechoslovakia: Prague party purge (Page 9)
Hungary-Czechoslovakia: Kadar's visit (Page 10)
Malaysia-Philippines: Diplomatic relations (Page 10)
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
 Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
SECRET
USSR: Partial reports on yesterday's Supreme
Soviet session reveal a slight increase in the ex-
plicit defense budget for 1970 as well as a low rate
of growth planned for industrial production.
According to Finance Minister Garbuzov, defense
spending will be 17.9 billion rubles in 1970, an in-
crease of only one percent over the amount planned
for this year. This increase is the smallest since
1965. The published defense budget, however, ex-
cludes most spending for military research and de-
velopment and the space program. These programs are
largely financed by the science budget, which has
not yet been announced.
The small rise is consistent with intelligence
estimates of total Soviet spending for defense and
space programs. These estimates indicate Soviet
spending for these programs in 1970 of about 22.2
billion rubles or the equivalent of about $66.5 bil-
lion if the programs were purchased in the US. The
small increment is also consistent with the image
of moderation the Soviets are attempting to project
at the preliminary Strategic Arms Limitations Talks.
State plan chairman Baibakov proposed only a
small increase of 6.3 percent for industrial produc-
tion in 1970. This indicates little hope for im-
proved performance during this last year of the
current five-year plan period. The industrial
growth rate this year has been a disappointing seven
percent, the lowest registered since 1946.
Baibakov also announced that this year's grain
harvest was six percent below that of 1968, and
over-all agricultural output fell by three percent.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
SECRET
USSR-Japan; The Soviet Union has issued its
strongest and most authoritative attack to date on
Prime Minister Sato's foreign policy.
A stinging editorial in yesterday's Pravda
denounced the "American-Japanese deal" struc at
the recent Nixon-Sato talks as a "new military-
political alliance between-two powerful imperial-
ist states, which is openly aggressive in nature."
It also warned against Japanese revanchism on the
northern territories issue and claimed that it
"may lead to dangerous aggravation of tension in
the Far East."
The strong Soviet attack was obviously prompted
by next week's Japanese election and associated is-
sues. Sato has clearly stolen the thunder on for-
eign policy matters from his left opposition by the
Okinawa agreement. His announced willingness to
hold high-level talks with the Chinese has also
made him less vulnerable to opposition charges of
inflexibility toward Peking, In addition, he has
publicly made it clear that his administration in-
tends to intensify its campaign to get back the
northern territories.
Moscow has been placed on the defensive by the
Okinawa agreement and the resultant "anti-Soviet"
agitation on the northern territories. Japan's
recognition in the Sato-Nixon communique of a legit-
imate US security and peace-keeping role in Asia
as well as the planned extension of the US-Japanese
security treaty next year are undoubtedly the cat-
alysts for the charge of a new "military-political
alliance."
Although the Soviets have been making modest
efforts to improve their image and position in
Japan, Moscow has long felt that the Japanese tend
to act as a US surrogate in Asia. The Soviets ap-
parently believe that they must make some response
to the recent movement in US-Japanese relations.
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/03/1 A-
 Approved For Release 200,RR-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
In addition, Sato's recent expression of willingness
to talk with Peking can only be regarded with un-
easiness in Moscow. Russian unhappiness with Sato's
present course, however, is not likely to affect
Soviet efforts to encourage economic contacts with
Japan, and Moscow will be very careful about going
beyond words to show its displeasure.
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
 Approved For Release 2004J1R1-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
LLibyah_: Negotiations on the status of Wheelus
Air Base ave begun on a harsh note.
Rejecting a US proposal to phase withdrawal
over a one-year period, the Libyan delegation headed
by junta leader Qaddafi asserted in a preliminary
public session that there was no justification what-
ever for a US military base in the country. He
charged the US with using the base to train Israelis
as well as to engage in sabotage and smuggling. In
this last respect, the incident in which an American
civilian schoolteacher was involved in the exfiltra-
tion of a Libyan Jew was specifically mentioned.
In the private session that followed, the Lib-
yans demanded that all US forces be voluntarily evac-
uated within the "very near future," repeatedly as-
serting that the US must withdraw well before the
end of 1970. The Libyans said that their government
intends to use Wheelus as a military base.
Inasmuch as the Libyans' tough stance was suc-
cessful in obtaining British agreement for a speedy
withdrawal from UK bases, they can be expected to
maintain their adamant position in the next round
of talks on Thursday.
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved or a ease
25X1
 Approved For Release 20Q4~~1~ ~Q)A-RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
[Panama: The National Guard officers who at-
tempted to oust Panamanian strongman General Torrijos
have themselves been ousted by forces loyal to the
general.
Torrijos returned to Panama late Monday night
and successfully rallied his supporters in the west-
ern provinces. When word of his return reached Pan-
ama City, .loyal troops moved on Guard headquarters.
By afternoon they had gained control of the city and
the general was able to begin the final leg of his
triumphant motorcade back to the capital.
Colonels Silvera and Sanjur, leaders of the coup
attempt, have been arrested and will be tried for
subversion. The titular leaders of the Provisional
Junta Government, Pinilla and Urrutia, who supported
Torrijos' ouster, have been detained; however, Tor-
rijos has not yet removed these figureheads from
office.
A period of readjustment and reorganization
will follow as Torrijos attempts to consolidate his
position. Changes in the Guard hierarchy and in the
government are likely in the next few weeks. Tor-
rijos' distrust of the oligarchy has almost certainly
been reinforced by indications that members of the
oligarchy supported his ouster. The general will
probably go ahead with plans to form an official
party which would exclude the traditional oligarchy-
dominated parties from participation in the politi-
cal process.
that
jur's
this
The embassy reports that a rumor is circulating
the US Government was somehow involved in San-
attempted ouster of Torrijos, and believes
might have a complicating effect on US relations
_ go -
with
Panama. F
1
25X1
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
 Approved For Release 2004/03/E: 9 JjP79T00975AO15200040001-8
Guatemala: Recent terrorist attacks in the
capital may signal the beginning cf Communist ef-
forts to disrupt the election period.
Three police detectives were gunned to death
Sunday, and two terrorists were killed on 12 Decem-
ber when they attacked police and murdered three
persons at the home of the vice minister of govern-
ment. One of the dead terrorists was the son of
prominent leftist Marco Antonio Villamar Contreras
and was a known member of the Communist Rebel Armed
A band of FAR guerrillas in the northwest con-
tinues to evade counterinsurgent forces that have
been pursuing them since late November. There are
some indications that several guerrillas have been
wounded, but none has been captured as e
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
25X1
25X'
Approved For Release 20041031 A- 0
 Approved For Release 2004/011[2RdtDP79T00975A015200040001-8
Dahomey: Cotonou remains in a state of general
confusion as a divided military attempts to sort
things out.
Little has been heard from the three-man mili-
tary directorate that was formed late last week,
and discussions among army officers are continuing.
Coup leader Lieutenant Colonel Kouandete appears to
be losing ground as these talks proceed. The mili-
tary is divided over a number of issues, including
demands from some officers that former president
Alley, Kouandete's archrival and predecessor as
chief of staff, be released from jail. A key armored
unit has quit Cotonou in disgust and has returned
to its base in a nearby town.
All ministers in deposed president Zinsou's
government, who had initially agreed to stay at
their posts, resigned yesterday. Although they
claimed their action was to protest the army's
refusal to debate Zinsou on the reasons for the
coup, they reportedly feared they were about to be
ousted by the military. Zinsou, who is free again
following a brief period of detention, may have
gained some support among civilians since his
ouster. The three civilian ex-presidents--Maga,
Apithy, and Ahomadegbe--have returned from exile
and have all been met by large crowds of their re-
gional followers. They reportedly will meet soon
with the military to begin talks on Dahomey's fu-
ture government. These three regional leaders,
however, have rarely been able to agree in the past,
and their presence in Cotonou does not bode well
for future stability.
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
 Approved For Release 2004AMR.] j4 RDP79T00975A015200040001-8
25X1
IAEA: The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) is under increasing pressure to establish the
position it will take on nuclear safeguards arrange-
ments to be concluded pursuant to the nonprolifera-
tion treaty (NPT).
As entry into force of the treaty draws near,
its provisions in the area of safeguards assume
critical importance. Under Article 3 of the NPT,
all nonnuclear-weapon states party to the treaty
must begin safeguards negotiations with the IAEA
within six months of its entry into force. Agree-
ments between the IAEA and these states to prevent
the diversion of fissionable material from peaceful
uses are to be concluded within 18 months after the
beginning of negotiations.
The UK wants the IAEA to set up a safeguards
committee at its Board of Governors meeting in Feb-
ruary. The committee would--under terms of a Brit-
ish draft resolution--advise the board on the de-
sirable form and content of a "widely applicable"
safeguards agreement. The UK hopes that IAEA mem-
bers who have not signed the NPT will do so once
they participate in defining the IAEA position on
safeguards.
The problem of negotiating a safeguards agree-
ment with the European Atomic Energy Community
(EURATOM) is particularly thorny and important. A
way will have to be found to define the respective
jurisdictions of the two organizations in carrying
out the safeguards function. Should the IAEA con-
cede too much to EURATOM's own system, this could
encourage the creation of other regional systems
seeking similar privileges. Bonn's recent signature
of the NPT appears to have quickened interest within
the European Commission--the executive body of the
European Communities--regarding the formulation of
EURATOM's negotiating position. It is expected that
during the first half of 1970 the Commission will
seek a mandate from the Council of Ministers of the
European Communities to begip talks with the IAEA
on a safeguards arrangement
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
 Approved For Release 2004/Okl DP79T00975A015200040001-8
Peru: The foreign debt renegotiations appear
to be progressing normally. US private banks have
agreed to refinance 50 percent of the payments due
during 1970-72, and Peru's European creditors have
agreed in principle to refinance a minimum of 60
percent of the payments due during 1970-71 on all
loans not previously refinanced. Peru reportedly
has reached a final agreement with Italy.to refi-
nance 75 percent of payments not previously refi-
nanced. Despite this progress, the finance minister
has bitterly assailed Peru's creditors for their lack
of understanding, possibly to ward off future charges
of a sell-out to the bankers.
Czechoslovakia: The Husak regime has launched
its second purge of the sluggish Prague municipal
party apparatus--the most important regional party
organization in the country. The leadership, at
yesterday's extraordinary session of Prague party
officials, demanded the ouster of the remaining
"right-wing opportunists" and other individuals who
are failing to implement party directives. Archcon-
servative Antonin Kapek was named chief of the
Prague city party committee, replacing a more mod-
erate conservative. It is too early to assess the
political implications of the shift. Kapek probably
will reshuffle a number of party committees attached
to the city's educational, scientific and industrial
installations.
(continued)
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2004/0 17~ 9E P79T00975A015200040001-8
Hungary-Czechoslovakia: Hungarian party boss
Kadar s expected visitr to Prague today involves more
than the desire to keep in touch with the new Czech-
oslovak leadership. It also reflects Hungarian con-
cern over the conservative trend in Czechoslovakia
and its potential effects on the political atmosphere
in Eastern Europe. Kadar, the most innovative and
reformist leader in the Warsaw Pact countries, wants
to probe Husak's intentions. Kadar will probably
cite his practical experience in charting a middle
course between conservative and liberal extremes.
Malaysia-Philippines: Relations between the
two countries have been resumed, Prime Minister
Rahman announced at the ministerial meeting of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) yes-
terday in Malaysia. In the interests of giving
ASEAN the appearance of a going concern, both coun-
tries have apparently sidestepped, temporarily at
least, the problem of resolving Manila's persistent
challenge to Malaysia's sovereignty over Sabah. As
long as the issue is on the back burner, Kuala Lum-
pur may believe there is a good chance of negotiating
a deal with Manila concerning Sabah while Marcos,
having just won re-election, may feel in no need of
this issue to distract his public from pressing do-
mestic problems.
17 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 CIA
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2004/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15200040001-8