CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015200070001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 20, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
50
20 December 1969
State Department review completed
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No. 0304/69
20 December 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
India: The two rival Congress parties are trying to
define their character, strength, and legitimacy.
(Page 1)
Kuwait: Voices of dissent are again beginning to be
Beard. (Page 2)
Panama: Torrijos has appointed two personal friends
to H-
ad the new civilian junta. (Page 3)
Guatemala: The President has given security forces
extraordinary authority to deal with terrorism.
(Page 4)
Hungary-Irate Credit (Page 5)
Botswana: Copper and nickel mine development (Page 5)
Indonesia: Debt rescheduling (Page 5)
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India: A major effort by the two rival Congress
parties to define their character, strength, and
legitimacy is being undertaken this month.
The opposition Congress party is currently
holding a plenary session in Gujarat State, an old-
guard stronghold. With a smaller representation in
parliament, a comparatively small number of the for-
merly united party's leaders behind it, and a number
of sticky. organizational problems to solve, the con-
ferees in Gujarat appear to be at a disadvantage
when compared with Prime Minister Gandhi's group.
Her party will hold a similar plenary meeting
next week. Because Mrs. Gandhi's party has already
dealt with many major organizational problems, it
will be free to promote its progressive image before
its main target audience--the youth and the poor.
Neither group, however, will want to alienate
major sections of India's society by developing
ideological positions which are too sharply defined.
Since most politicians anticipate early elections--
before 1972--the policy statements produced are
likely to be the result of behind the scenes compro-
mises between the leaders, who are primarily con-
cerned with preserving their parties' appeal through-
out India, and strong minority elements to whom a
clear-cut ideological stand is most important. I
20 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Kuwait: Voices of dissent, stifled since the
rigged parliamentary elections of 1967, are again
beginning to be heard in Kuwait.
State security trials of 17 persons, arrested
earlier this year for antigovernment activity, have
now been completed. Some of those arrested were
members of the Kuwait Arab Nationalist Movement. The
sentences, ranging from four months to seven years,
are regarded as light by older conservatives and as
harsh by younger Kuwaitis. At least one of the
principal defendants who got off with light treatment
succeeded in airing antigovernment issues during the
trials, to the embarrassment of the government.
This whole episode has had some preliminary
effects on Kuwait's politics and attitudes. The
publicity accorded the issues and heavy-handed at-
tempts by the authorities to silence the defendants
have reportedly stimulated sentiment for "progres-
sive" political positions among many Kuwaitis. Ku-
waiti merchants, who have long desired to break the
royal family's stranglehold on the country's polit-
ical life, have met openly to accuse the government
of partial responsibility for an economic slowdown.
This apparent crystallization of opposition
opinion is not necessarily an omen that the radical-
ism rampant in much of the Middle East will soon
sweep aside the Kuwaiti leadership. It may mean,
however, that the regime will feel compelled to make
some concessions to popular opinion, perhaps by ap-
pointing a more broadly based cabinet or simply by
allowing unstaged parliamentary elections in the
future.
A refusal to adopt such seemingly easy conces-
sions could play into the hands of Arab extremist
elements. These elements are now relatively dormant
in Kuwait, but their popularity is increasing with
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the escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Panama: Torrijos yesterday appointed two close
personal friends to head the new civilian junta.
Demetrio Lakas was inaugurated President of the
Provisional Junta Government and Arturo Sucre was
installed as the second junta member following the
forced resignation of Colonels Pinilla and Urrutia,
who had supported last Sunday's coup attempt. Pres-
ident Lakas is pro-US and a strong supporter of Tor-
rijos' somewhat vague plan to modernize and develop
the country. Lakas views himself as one of the few
men in Panama who can argue freely with the General,
and may be somewhat. less of a figurehead than Pinilla.
Nevertheless, Torrijos will continue to be the real
power in Panama.
Earlier, Torrijos had removed the coup leaders,
Colonels Silvera and Sanjur, from their posts as
deputy commandant and chief of staff of the National
Guard. On 18 December he replaced them with more
loyal officers. Further changes in the government
and the Guard may be forthcoming as Torrijos con-
tinues to review the support he received from his
key officials.
20 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Guatemala: President Mendez has decreed a "state
of precaution" for 15 days, giving security forces
extraordinary authority to deal with the terrorist
problem.
Ten persons have been killed in a spate of Com-
munist-perpetrated violence that began on 12 December.
The assassination Wednesday of prominent politician
David Guerra Guzman, a rightist candidate for mayor
of Guatemala City, created a demand for action and
generated criticism of the government's inability to
cope with the security threat.
President Mendez has been reluctant to restrict
constitutional guarantees that would curtail normal
political activities related to the campaign for the
general elections on 1 March. The state of precau-
tion does not prohibit electoral campaigning, but
allows security forces to arrest suspects, enter
homes, and search vehicles without warrants. The
army has not yet been called upon to augment the ci-
vilian policy, but long military leaves are being
canceled.
The US Embassy notes that all segments of Guate-
malan society are blaming Communist terrorists for
the recent attacks. This reaction is unlike that of
June when some rightists believed the governing party
was responsible for the murder of one of their polit-
ical leaders. Further political assassinations prob-
ably would provoke reprisals against the left by
rightist extremists.
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Hungary-Iraq: Hungary has agreed to extend $15
million in credit to Iraq to finance the delivery of
plants and equipment for the Iraqi oil and gas indus-
try. Hungary presumably will be repaid with exports
of Iraqi oil. Budapest also announced that both gov-
ernments had approved the agreement signed in October
under which Hungary will drill four oil wells in
Iraq's North Rumaila field. The drilling will begin
in the second quarter of 1970. Czechoslovakia agreed
in early December to build an oil refinery in Iraq
and to hold further discussions on the export of
plants and equipment in exchange for Iraqi oil.
Botswana: Copper and nickel mine development
at Selebi-Pikwe, which eventually will increase the
gross domestic product by 60-70 percent, now is
under way. The International Development Associa-
tion has approved a $2.5-million credit primarily
for the design of the installation. Final agreements
between the government and the investors on the $150
million project ($100 million of which is private
capital) will probably be signed in February or
March. The majority of the equity capital is to be
provided by American investors.
Indonesia: Deliberations on the rescheduling
of Indonesia's debt has been deferred until March.
Further study of a proposal authorized by the Western
creditors earlier this year and of new plans proposed
by the French will take place in the meantime. Ob-
jections by some participants to certain lenient
features of the former proposal--waiver of all in-
terest and finality of settlement--led to the post-
ponement. The major Western donors fear, however,
that any less favorable terms of settlement would
add to Indonesia's already onerous economic burdens
and would require significant additions to the $500-
600 million in annual aid now being provided solely
by Western countries.
20 Dec 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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