CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015300120001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 13, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
5,0
13 January 1970
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No. 0011/70
13 January 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Nigeria: Most organized Biafran resistance will
probably end soon. (Page 1)
Venezuela: President Caldera is pressing for more
favorable treatment in the US oil market. (Page 2)
IAEA: The US, UK, and France will cosponsor an
Italian plan to expand the organization's Board of
Governors. (Page 3)
Thailand: Guerrilla attack (Page 4)
USSR-Egypt: Trade protocol (Page 4)
India: Aircraft purchase (Page 5)
Dahomey: Political maneuvering (Page 5)
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NIGERIA: Organized Biafran Resistance Nearly at End
0Enugu
Owerri
Approximate area still held
by secessionist units
Afikpo
Okigwi ~
Ur uahia1
~Owerri IVta
1Ahoada
Port Harcourt
Bonny
Alba
~Bende
Ikot Ekpene,
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Nigeria: Most organized Biafran resistance
will probably end soon,
The federal government, which is dominated by
minority tribesmen, is willing to deal with Effiong,
who is from a minority Eastern tribe. Effiong prom-
ised there would be no government in exile, signal-
ing a break with Ojukwu, and appointed a represent-
ative to work out the terms of Biafra's return to
the federation.
Although not an Ibo, Effiong probably has the
support of most Biafran senior officers. Neverthe-
less, some secessionist units may continue to fight,
particularly those that have held their ground
against federal attacks in the north. A breakdown
in Biafra's logistics system and a shortage of am-
munition will probably prevent them from maintain-
ing organized resistance for more than a few days,
however.
There is little information on the fast-moving
military situation on Biafra's southern front, but
it appears that federal troops have occupied at
least part of Ihiala airstrip. There have been no
reports of atrocities by the Yoruba-led federal di-
vision in the south. There is some danger of ret-
ribution by units on the northern front, where the
Biafrans have long held the Nigerians at bay.
13 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Venezuela: President Caldera is continuing to
press for more favorable treatment in the US oil mar-
ket.
He took the unusual. action last Friday of using
a diplomatic reception at which he was host to engage
the US charge in a lengthy discussion of the US oil
import program. Caldera said that US intentions to-
ward Venezuela would be judged by the decision taken
on Venezuela's share of the US oil market. He empha-
sized that Venezuela would be "less than satisfied"
with a policy that did not accord Venezuela equal
treatment with Canada. The US charge` commented that
Caldera is "flint-hard and uncompromising" on the
petroleum issue.
In recent weeks the Venezuelan Government has
been making urgent representations for an increase in
its oil import allotment: in anticipation of an early
US decision on oil import policy. Venezuelan fears
have been strengthened by reports that a study com-
mission recommended favored treatment for Canada.
President Caldera, whose administration is al-
ready hard-pressed by financial and political diffi-
culties, wants increased oil imports to help finance
his promised reform program. In addition, the issue
is a highly nationalistic one, and any US policy
adjudged to be discriminatory, whether real or imagined,
could cause Venezuela to seek means of economic retal-
iation.
13 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IAEA: The US, UK, and France have agreed tenta-
tively to cosponsor an Italian plan to expand the
Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) at the Board's February meeting.
Under terms of Article 6 of the IAEA statute,
the Board is composed of 26 members, with 5 seats
reserved for those IAEA member states "most advanced
in the technology of atomic energy, including the
production of source materials." The five states are
the US, UK, USSR, Canada, and France. The Board is
vested not only with legislative and policy-making
functions, but also with executive and administrative
responsibilities.
Some IAEA members now wish to increase the number
of Board participants. They note that the Nonprolif-
eration Treaty (NPT.) is nearing entry into force and
that the nonnuclear-weapon adherents to the NPT must
negotiate safeguards agreements with the IAEA to pre-
vent the diversion of fissionable material from peaceful
uses. An expanded Board would presumably increase con-
fidence in the IAEA.
The Italians propose to revise Article 6 to expand
the Board to 33 members, and in the process add Italy
and West Germany to the "most advanced" category. If
accepted at the February Board meeting, the proposal
would then be submitted to the general conference of
IAEA members in September. To enter into force, a
revision would have to be approved by a two-thirds vote
at the general conference and subsequently ratified by
two thirds of the.IAEA members.
Serious resistance to the Italian scheme is evi-
dent among the Soviet bloc, the Africans, and the
Scandinavians. The chief Soviet representative to the
IAEA in December indicated a preference for stringing
out the Article 6 revision problem until 1971 or 1972.
He is opposed to an addition of more than four members
to the Board, none of which would be in the "most ad-
vanced" category.
13 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NOTES
*Thailand: Communist guerrillas yesterday con-
ducted their second small-scale sapper raid in the
last six months on the Ubon airbase in northeast
Thailand. This latest effort, which cost the insur-
gents six dead, caused no damage to US aircraft and
facilities. This is the first repeat performance by
the guerrillas on a major military target in north-
east Thailand and suggests a determination on their
part to present a more credible military threat.
The Communists have long been capable of such nui-
sance raids against the well-defended bases, but
have demonstrated no ability to mount a larger at-
tack. 25X1
USSR-Egypt: A new trade protocol for 1970
calls for total trade, excluding Soviet economic
aid deliveries, to reach $391 million--nearly a 15-
percent increase over 1969. The Soviet Union will
supply Egypt with machinery and equipment, oil, coal,
metals, timber, food, and other goods. Egypt will
increase the delivery of industrial and agricultural
goods to the USSR as well as supply the traditional
cotton, rice, and cotton knitwear. An earlier Egyp-
tian press report indicated that the negotiations
also would cover a new five-year trade and aid agree-
ment, but the official announcement at the conclu-
sion of the two-week talks did not mention this.
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*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State or of the Defense Intelligence Agency,
Department of Defense.
(continued)
13 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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India: New Delhi's decision to purchase seven
Boeing 737s for its domestic airline instead of So-
viet-built TU-154s is at least partially the result
of a Soviet failure to come up with a sufficiently
attractive package to offset the superiority of the
American aircraft. Although the Indians believe the
737 is a better plane than the TU-154, Moscow seemed
to have clinched the sale early last fall by tying
it to the purchase of Indian railroad cars. Even
after the freight car negotiations fell through,
the prospect of favorable Soviet credit terms, in-
cluding liberal interest rates and repayment in
rupees, had still seemed to give the USSR an edge.
Dahomey: A power play late last week by dis-
gruntled army officers failed to restore recently
deposed president Zinsou or to eliminate coup leader
Lt. Colonel Kouandete. For the moment, at least,
the various contending factions remain in a stand-
off, although Kouandete may have have gained some
strength by surviving the challenge. Kouandete re-
portedly may now attempt to dissolve the ruling
military triumvirate and take full power himself.
Cotonou, the largest city, is calm and most of the
civilian population seems indifferent to the unre-
solved struggle going on inside the military estab-
lishment.
13 Jan 70 Central Intelligence .Bulletin 5
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