CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015400020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 26, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 16, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
16 January 1970
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No. 0014/70
16 January 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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Nigeria: The government is laying the groundwork for
the reintegration of Biafra. (Page 1)
USSR: The production of crude oil from West Siberia
is to be accelerated. (Page 3)
Western Europe: Bonn probably will not support a
Dutch proposal for an alternative to the multirole
aircraft. (Page 4)
Dominican Republic: Security forces have captured a
top Communist leader. (Page 5)
Central America: Honduras continues to block resto-
ration of Common Market effectiveness. (Page 6)
Colombia: The Pastrana presidential campaign is in
trouble- (Page 7)
East Germany - West Germany: Reaction to Brandt
speech (Page 8)
Lebanon: Fedayeen control (Page 8)
USSR: Meat purchases (Page 9)
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Nigeria: The government is laying the ground-
work for the reintegration of Biafra into the fed-
eration.
General Effiong, Biafran leader Ojukwu's suc-
cessor, met yesterday with General Gowon and for-
mally renounced secession. Gowon then declared a
general amnesty for all those who had been "mis-
guided" into secession, reflecting the continuing
effort by the federal government to reassure the
Eastern tribesmen that there will be an equitable
reconstruction. Effiong was accompanied by several
civilian secessionist leaders, including Ibos.
Meanwhile, Ojukwu's statement yesterday claim-
ing that Biafra will survive and calling for an in-
ternational presence in secessionist territory to
prevent "genocide" probably will not have any imme-
diate effect on events in the former enclave. Ojukwu
is a charismatic figure, however, and he could be-
come a rallying point for resistance if the federal
occupation goes badly. There are conflicting re-
ports on Ojukwu's whereabouts, but the weight of
evidence suggests that he is in Gabon.
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USSR: The production of crude oil from the
remote, but rich, oilfields of West Siberia is to be
accelerated to compensate for declining rates of
growth in older producing areas.
A decree published yesterday orders production
in West Siberia to be increased ten-fold by 1980.
This raises the 1980 target there from the. range of
135-160 million tons to 230-260 million tons. The
goal for total production of crude oil in the USSR
in 1980, recently set at 550-600 million tons, re-
mains unchanged, however. No substantial change is
predicted for the Soviet export position.
Some 70 percent of Soviet oil now comes from the
favorably located Urals-Volga region. In 1967 a So-
viet spokesman predicted that production in that re-
gion would increase to a peak of 240 million tons per
year in 1980, but it now seems probable that annual
production in the next few years will be stabilized
at a level of about 200 million tons. West Siberia
appears to be the only region where the Soviets can
hope to compensate for the slowing rate of growth in
production from the Urals-Volga region.
The oil deposits in West Siberia are known to be
huge, but considerable capital investment will be re-
quired to develop them. Difficult geological forma-
tions will greatly increase the drilling requirements
and will necessitate the application of sophisticated
technology, which the Soviet oil industry has yet to
master. West Siberia also is distant from the prin-
cipal oil consuming regions of the country and is
poorly served with power lines, roads, railroads, and
pipelines. Accelerated development of oil extraction
in the region will double the Soviet requirement for
pipe, a commodity that already is in very short supply.
The severe climate and marshy terrain of West Siberia
hamper all operations, and the harsh living conditions
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Western Europe: A Dutch proposal for an alter-
native to the multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) proj-
ect will probably not meet approval by Bonn, the lar-
gest potential backer.
The Dutch bowed out of the MRCA consortium last
July, objecting to the project's high costs and nu-
merous political factors that have hindered its de-
velopment. They have attempted to arouse interest in
a "mini-consortium" that could achieve the same goal
as the MRCA--replacement of the F-104, which has
been the backbone of the interceptor force of many
allied countries during the past decade..
The Dutch want a cooperative venture that would
provide them with 100 light, highly maneuverable air-
superiority fighters; they are willing to consider
construction of an existing aircraft by their consor-
tium. The likely prospects include the Northrop
P-530, the SAAB Viggen, and the Dassault F-1.
E probably by April,- the Italians, who have been
unhappy with the MRCA project, will join the Norwe-
gians, Canadians, and Dutch in the "mini-consortium."
the Swiss, Australians, Japanese, and
Iranians have also shown interest, and that there is
a.good chance that Bonn will join as well.
West German support for the MRCA continues un-
abated, however, and because it is the largest pur-
chaser of the new fighters, Bonn could determine the
fate of a consortium's effort. The MRCA fulfills
West German fighter requirements more completely
than do the aircraft the Dutch have in mind
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Dominican Republic: Security forces have cap-
tured a top Communist leader.
Maximiliano Gomez, the Secretary-General of the
Dominican Popular Movement (MPD), was reportedly ap-
prehended on Wednesday. The MPD has been the most
active terrorist group and is credited with several
assassinations of military personnel. Gomez has
often been listed as a prime target for government
"murder squads."
Some Communists will probably attempt to stir
violent protests in the capital. Although their re-
cent efforts have had only marginal success, the
Communists may be moved to provoke clashes with the
police because of the capture of their secretary
general. If Gomez is murdered, some hotheads may
attempt to assassinate a high level military figure
in retribution, but the majority of the Communists
will probably be discouraged by the government's ac-
tion.
Whatever the fate of Gomez, the extreme left is
unlikely to shift immediately from its official pol-
icy of sporadic terrorism to an outright confronta-
tion with the administration as long as the military
remains united behind President Balaguer. Balaguer,
perhaps under pressure from the military, has re-
cently taken an increasingly tough line toward the
left, and the government is probably braced for trou-
ble.
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Central America: Honduran intransigence contin-
ues to block restoration of the Central American Com-
mon Market to its former effectiveness.
The five Central American economic ministers
met last week for the first time since last summer's
conflict between El Salvador and Honduras. All ex-
cept the Honduran minister were prepared to allow
the Market's executive organs to resume formal opera-
tions immediately. The Hondurans, however, have
maintained that the conflict terminated the Market's
legal framework. They insist that a modus operandi
be worked out to govern the Market until a more com-
plete restructuring can be negotiated. The five min-
isters will meet again next month to try to end the
impasse.
Preparations are also under way for bilateral
talks between El Salvador and Honduras. Both sides
have already accepted former OAS Secretary General
Jose Mora as moderator, and meetings are expected
to begin later this month in Costa Rica. Honduran
insistence on a commitment to settle the border dis-
pute as a precondition to talks on other topics will
undoubtedly be unacceptable to El Salvador, and rapid
progress is unlikely.
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Colombia: The presidential campaign of Misael
Pastrana, candidate of the National Front, is in
trouble.
. The election on 19 April is scheduled to be the
last under the National Front, which provides for
alternating the presidency between the Liberal and
Conservative parties. Pastrana is a Conservative
Pastrana has shown himself willing to yield to
pressures from various political factions, thus alien-
ating some of his supporters. In addition, he has
failed to generate any popular enthusiasm and has
shown little acumen in choosing his campaign team.
Many of his Liberal Party supporters fear that Pas-
trana's disorganization will ultimately damage their
own chances in the elections, which will be open
to all parties.
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East Germany - West Germany ' : The first "unof-
ficial" reaction of the East Germans to Chancellor
Brandt's state of the nation address was predictably
negative. It does not, however, shut the door to
future talks. The Bonn correspondent of East Ger-
many's official news agency criticized Brandt both
for what he said and did not say. He characterized
as unsatisfactory the Chancellor's statement that
he will propose talks on a renunciation of force
agreement, and attacked Brandt for not discussing
the draft treaty Ulbricht sent to Bonn in December.
One form of reply will come from party boss Ulbricht,
who has scheduled ress conference on 19 January.
Lebanon: The government may try to impose a
measure of control over the Arab commandos. Minis-
ter of Interior Jumblatt yesterday gave the fedayeen
48 hours to evacuate their quarters in all inhabited
areas of southern Lebanon. He threatened to take
punitive measures if they failed to comply. Jum-
blatt's demand followed an anti-fedayeen demonstra-
tion in a southern Lebanese town where the fedayeen
had set up an office next to a school. Should the
government move against the fedayeen, violence is
likely. Normally, the government would not want to
clash with the commandos, but it is mindful of re-
cent Israeli threats of retaliation if the fedayeen
are nr,t- co
} i i
n
(continued)
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ILLEGIB
USSR: Moscow is seeking 60,000 tons of beef
and mutton from Australia and New Zealand for de-
livery by the end of May. Similar approaches ma
be made to Latin American countries.
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e value of such an order at about
$24 million--equal to almost two-thirds-the value of
meat and meat products imported by the USSR in 1968.
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The Soviets also are seeking as much as
tons of poultry from France.
Difficulties in the Soviet meat industry were
admitted in an editorial in Pravda on 13 January
that stated that problems in tthe'livestock sector
have led to a meat supply problem in major cities.
The USSR, however, also exports meat and meat pro-
ducts, sellin 45 million more than it imported
in 1968.
(continued)
16 Jan 70 CeAftok Z .t&(L?gvx e: $ulletin
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