CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015400080001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 24, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 23, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/01/29: CIA-RDP79T00975A015408$ t2
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5
23 January 1970
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975A015400080001-2
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
 Approved For Release 2003/0
No. 0020/70
23 January 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
25X1
25X6
Thailand: Bangkok has dropped its talk of withdraw-
ing troops from South Vietnam. (Page 2)
Indonesia: National elections in 1971 now seem
likely. (Page 3)
25X6
Italy: The four center-left parties have made some
progress toward agreement on a new coalition. (Page 5)
Yugoslavia: The economy experienced a general boom
last year. (Page 7)
Lebanon: The economy continues its slow deteriora-
tion. (Page 8)
Somalia: Strong security laws have been adopted.
(Page 9)
25X6
25X1
West Germany - Berlin: Harassment (Page 10)
Nigeria: Treatment of civilians (Page 11)
Pakistan: Possible violence (Page 11)
Libya: Oil prices (Page 11)
Mexico: Dissidence (Page 12)
25X1
Approved For Release 2003V01/29 : CIA-RDR79T00975AO15400080001-2
25X1
 25X6 Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
 Approved For Release 200
Thailand: Bangkok has dropped its talk of
withdrawing Thai troops from South Vietnam.
Prime Minister Thanom said in a press confer-
ence last week that his government has acceded to a
South Vietnamese request to withhold any decision
to withdraw the troops and would postpone considera-
tion of a pull-out until a more "suitable" time.
Thai Foreign Ministry spokesmen subsequently con-
firmed the decision to US officials in Bangkok.
Bangkok was not expected to initiate any early
troop reductions. Foreign Minister Thanat's primary
aim last month in opening discussions with Saigon
on the subject was to publicize Thai support for the
Vietnamization program and the Saigon government.
He assured the South Vietnamese that Bangkok had no
desire to reduce its troop contingent
without Rai-
gon's concurrence.
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 4003/01/29 : ClP-RDP79T00975A015400080001-2
 Approved For Release 2003/q
Indonesia: National elections in 1971 now seem
likely.
On the strength of election laws passed in No-
vember, President Suharto on 17 January installed a
General Election Board under the chairmanship of the
home affairs minister. In his accompanying address,
Suharto stated that the postponement of elections
"cannot be justified."
Congress decreed in 1968 that elections should
be held one and a half years after the enactment of
the general election law. That law has now been
passed, thereby in effect scheduling elections some-
time before mid-1971. Parliament has yet to define
what organizations can actually participate in the
elections. It has stipulated, however, that the
government will appoint from the military and non-
political organizations about one fourth of Parlia-
ment (which legislates) and one third of Congress
(which determines broad lines of national policy,
and meets less frequently than Parliament.)
Despite some misgivings, Suharto and his ad-
visers apparently are convinced of the political
necessity of going forward with elections if public
confidence in the administration is to be retained.
They may also feel that by mid-1971, economic im-
provement will have advanced enough so that their
earlier argument that political activity must wait
on the economy would no longer be acceptable.
Even though a momentum that would be difficult
to reverse has been established, Suharto and other
government leaders remained concerned over the pos-
sible fragmenting effect of popular politics and
the electoral process in Indonesia's diverse society.
In his address on 17 January, as in previous state-
ments to political organizations, Suharto urged that
national unity and economic and political stability
be placed above group interests.
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79ff00975A015400080001-2
 25X6 Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
 Approved For Release 2003/ 1/29: CIA-R P79T00975AO15400080001-2
Italy: The four center-left parties have made
some progress toward agreement on a new coalition,
and outbreaks of violence in Milan over the past
two days are likely to increase their efforts.
All four parties apparently agree that it is
better to attempt to form a new government before
the local and regional elections in the spring rather
than to continue with the present minority govern-
ment. A key problem is to define the relationship
between the prospective government and the Italian
Communist Party (PCI). The right-wing Unitary So-
cialists, a majority of the Christian Democrats,
and the small Republican Party believe the govern-
ment should not bargain with the PCI for its support
on legislation.
In contrast, the orthodox Socialists and part
of the Christian Democratic left wing want experi-
mental cooperation in Parliament with the PCI on
specific issues. A compromise formula put forth by
Christian Democratic Secretary Forlani emphasizes
that the majority must be strong enough to deal with
the PCI on the government?s own terms. Recent mod-
ification of the hard position of the right-wing
Socialists on this question will contribute to an
earlier formation of the new government.
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/p1/29 : CIA-RIPP79T00975AO15400080001-2
25X1
25X1
25X1
 25X6 Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
 Approved For Release 2003/01
Yugoslavia: The economy experienced a general
boom last year.
Industrial and agricultural production grew rap-
idly and wages grew sufficiently to offset the eight-
percent rise in the cost of living.
Foreign trade also grew substantially and con-
tinued to expand with non-Communist countries. The
share of trade with the developed West again rose as
a proportion of total Yugoslav trade, primarily at
the expense of trade with CEMA countries. Trade with
the USSR not only failed to meet the official target,
but actually declined by five percent.
The decrease with CEMA countries is partly due
to Yugoslavia's inability to use the sizable clear-
ing account surpluses accumulated with its CEMA part-
ners in recent years. Despite efforts during 1969,
Yugoslavia was unable to reach agreement with any
CEMA trade partners to eliminate these clearing ar-
rangements.
The trade deficit increased in 1969, but be-
cause data on invisible earnings are not yet complete,
the final balance-of-payments picture is not clear.
Earnings from tourism grew substantially, and these
and other invisible earnings will probably cover a
large part of the trade deficit.
Economic officials anticipate continued growth
in 1970 and hope that problems such as price in-
creases can be kept under control without additional
administrative measures. A recent resolution on
economic policy in 1970 predicts a "considerable"
reduction in the balance-of-payments deficit through
a continued growth in exports. Yugoslavia, however,
will be faced at that time with increased repayments
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 20034 1/29: CIA-479T00975A015400080001-2 25X1
 Approved For Release 200
Lebanon: The economy, hurt by the 23-day bor-
der closing with Syria last October and internal
problems caused by fedayeen activities and Israeli
reprisals, continues its slow deterioration.
The highly vulnerable service sector, which
accounts for two thirds of Lebanon's gross national
Product, has been hardest hit.
the important tourist industry has
been significantly affected.
With economic activity ebbing, the government
is facing problems meeting increased expenditure for
defense and development efforts and is seeking aid
from other countries. It has asked the US for about
$12 million in PL-480 commodities, which would be
sold on the local market to generate development
funds. At the same time the prime minister and the
foreign minister are planning to tour Arab countries
in search of assistance.
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2001/01/29 : CIA-RDI'79T00975A015400080001-2
 Approved For Release 2003
Somalia: The Supreme Revolutionary Council
has adopted several new laws that give it virtually
unlimited powers of detention, trial, and punish-
ment over anyone suspected of opposing the regime.
The laws were promulgated on 10 January, but
were made retroactive to 21 October, the date of
the coup. Until now the council had not formally
assumed such extensive powers, although it has been
able to enforce its authority whenever necessary.
Except for a complete reorganization of the Supreme
Court, the basic judicial apparatus existing before
the coup has remained relatively untouched.
It is not entirely clear why the council has
chosen to take this step now. The move may reflect
a feeling of insecurity on the part of the regime
arising from rumors of plotting and popular opposi-
tion that constantly circulate throughout the coun-
try. When these new laws become generally known--
thus far they have only appeared in the government's
bulletin--they could produce serious adverse reac-
tion among Somali citizens, who traditionally have
been highly mistrustful of centralized auth
't
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RD979T00975A015400080001-2
25X1
25X1
on
 Approved For Release 2q
25X1
West Germany - Merlin: The East Germans nave
continued to harass West German travelers driving to
and from West Berlin. Rail traffic nas not been dis-
rupted nor have Allied travelers been affected by
the East German disruptions. The Communists also
employed another of their standard harassing tactics
yesterday by creating sonic booms over West Berlin.
Nevertheless, West German Foreign Ministry officials
believe the current harassments are mild enough to
indicate that the Communists do not want any serious
trouble over Berlin at this time.
Chancellor Brandt dispatched his promised letter
to East German Premier Stoph yesterday, earlier than
expected, proposing formal talks on renunciation of
force. Although the talks are not expected to begin
anytime soon, this prompt move may be intended to
ease the situation by emphasizing Bonn's readiness
for talks despite the current difficulties.
(continued)
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003401/29 : CIA-RD979T00975A015400080001-2
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2001
Nigeria: Large numbers of civilians have been
returning to towns in the former Biafran enclave,
and federal forces have not as yet encountered any
major security problems. All responsible foreign
observers agree that these civilians have not been
deliberately mistreated on any significant scale.
Looting and rape have occurred, however, and there
is an increasing possibility of a further breakdown
of discipline among occupying federal troops. Some
Nigerian soldiers have been commandeering vehicles,
thereby adding to already serious disruption in the
flow of relief supplie curred when the fed-
eral forces moved in.
Pakistan: Violence may erupt again in Dacca
on Saturday when a widely supported dawn-to-dusk
general strike is scheduled to begin. Strikes and
public meetings earlier this week generated serious
disturbances that prompted President Yahya Khan to
issue a statement warning political leaders to keep
their supporters under control. East Pakistanis on
Saturday will be commemorating the massive Bengali
demonstrations in Dacca last year that eventually
brought down the Ayub regime.
Libya: Long-standing demands for an upward
revision of the posted price for Libyan oil will be
pursued vigorously by the new government. Libya
is expected to ask for an increase of at least 10
cents per barrel to approach parity with Middle East
oil available at the pipeline terminals at Mediter-
ranean ports. The oil companies probably will re-
sist this demand on legal grounds rather than on
the economic merits of the demand. One of the sev-
eral companies with principal interests only in
Libya, however, may capitulate, thereby making it
necessary for other companies to follow suit.
(contin
23 Jan 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975A015400080001-2
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2003
Mexico: The federal government has had to move
troops into the western state of Durango to put down
continuing disorders. Early this month dissidents
tried to oust the governor for malfeasance, and stu-
dent protesters seized the state palace. Last week-
end the dissidents destroyed rail lines and created
other disturbances. During this period of campaign-
ing for the elections in July, the government is
placing a high premium on political tranquility and
is hoping for a quiet local solution in Durango.
Similar action by student-led dissidents in 1966 suc-
ceeded in ousting the governor, but President Diaz
Ordaz appears to be supporting the current incumbent.
25X1
25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 20P3/01/29 : CIAFRDP79T00975A015400080001-2
 Secr&proved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/01/29 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO15400080001-2