CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015500110001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 10, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5G
STATE review(s) completed.
10 February 1970
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 SECRET
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No, 0035/70
10 February 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
North Vietnam: The Communists are continuing to bol-
ster their air defenses in the southern panhandle.
(Page 1)
Communist China: A moderate approach to agricultural
policy has been .forcefully restated. (Page 2)
Philippines: Government personnel changes have eased
political pressure on Marcos. (Page 3)
Yu oslavia-EC: A three-year trade agreement is the
EC's first with Eastern Europe. (Page 4)
Venezuela-Gu ana: Caldera has made a strong bid for
US support. (Page 5)
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Dominican Republic: Economic growth (Page 6)
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North Vietnamese Continue to Beef Up Air Defenses in Panhandle
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North Vietnam: The North Vietnamese are con-
tinuing to o star their air defenses in the southern
panhandle.
Aerial photography of 3 February has disclosed
three new surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites--two
along Route .7 near the Laos border, and another near
Route 15. One of the sites on Route 7 was occupied
by a firing unit; the others were empty. Eleven new
SAM sites have now been photographed in the panhandle
since the first of the year. At least three and
possibly four SAM firing units are currently believed
to be available in the area.
Hanoi has been strengthening its air defenses
along the main infiltration and logistics arteries
in the panhandle and adjacent to the Laotian border
for several weeks. The North Vietnamese probably
regard these moves as a cheap and relatively safe
way of inhibiting US air operation ere.
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10 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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Communist China: A moderate approach to agri-
cultural policy has been forcefully restated in the
party theoretical journal.
An article in the latest issue of Red Flag, which
was also broadcast by Peking radio on 2 February,
addressed itself to a number of the key agricultural
issues that have been debated for years within the
leadership. It noted, for example, that China's aim
is to develop the commune system fully. The article
asserted, however, that the process must be gradual,
and it warned against attempting to move to the higher
level "in a hurry." Thus, the authors rule out any
precipitant effort, such as that which occurred in
the "great leap forward," to jump over several stages
of developing cooperatives.
The article also indicated concern over the lack
of responsiveness of rural villages to Peking's di-
rection. At several places it warned against class
enemies who make use of "feudal clan relationships,"
and continue the "family register and records." The
implication in such charges is that in some villages
family relationships have become more important than
class and that clan authority has replaced that of
party and government. The article also warned against
the cadre and poorer peasants being wooed away from
the leadership of the party by the "sugar-coated
bullets" of the bourgeois, such as money and gifts.
The Red Flag article also mentioned a "national
unified economic plan," raising the possibility that
efforts are under way to develop a new five-year
plan. The keynote of such a plan, if the Red FTlag
article authors get their way, will be pragmatism.
The article notes that the new plan should permit a
degree of flexibility to allow local areas to work
out their plans according to local conditions.
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10 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Philippines: Government personnel changes an-
nounce by President Marcos over the weekend have
temporarily eased political pressures on him.
By stating that the shifts were to make the
government "more responsive to the clamor for
change," Marcos tried to create an appearance of
moving to meet popular demands for responsible gov-
ernment. This has been a major theme voiced by
student demonstrators.
The removal of the Philippine Constabulary
chief, whose role in election irregularities last
November made him particularly resented, has met
with wide approval. His dismissal has led to de-
mands for action against two other
cronies of Marcos, who may find it expedient o dump
them.
Reassignments within the cabinet have elevated
men of demonstrated efficiency and probity, In order
to regain public confidence, however, Marcos would
have to follow up the new appointments with an action
program. To date, he has shown no inclination to
move along such a line and, in fact, the oligarchy's
powerful position would make any genuine reform pro-
gram very difficult to initiate.
Demonstrations scheduled for 12 February by
leftist student and labor organizations could lead
to renewed violence, even though the decision of
moderate student and labor factions not to partici-
pate could blunt their impact. The leftist organ-
izers, shaken by the forcible suppression of dis-
orders on'30 January, profess a desire to keep the
protests peaceful, but provocateurs could play on
the taut nerves of both students and security forces
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Yugoslavia-EC: A three-year trade agreement
initialed on 6 February is the European Communities'
(EC) first such accord with an Eastern European
country.
The pact, which is expected to be ratified by
member countries in mid-March, provides for early
implementation of a scheduled general tariff reduc-
tion of 25 percent on beef, a major Yugoslav export
to the six countries. In return, Yugoslavia is to
avoid flooding the market with beef by maintaining
a minimum price level for such exports. It also
will make certain concessions on imports of indus-
trial goods from EC members. A mixed commission
will be established to monitor the agreement.
Belgrade can be expected to use the commission
to press its case for future additions to the agree-
ment, particularly for such items as wine, corn,
tobacco, and textiles. About two thirds of Yugo-
slavia's hard-currency deficit of $546 million in
1969 arose from trade with the EC. Some 40 per cent
of all Yugoslav imports and one third of all its ex-
ports in 1969 were with the Six.
10 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Venezuela-Guyana: President Caldera has made
a strong bid for US support in the Venezuela-Guyana
border dispute.
In a conversation with Assistant Secretary of
State Meyer last Saturday, Caldera for the first
time made a strong demarche on this issue. Point-
ing out that the mixed border commission was to ex-
pire on 17 February, he said. that Venezuela hoped
that the US would consider at the very least offer-
ing its good offices to continue the dialogue.be-
tween Venezuela and Guyana in some way. The last
meeting of the mixed commission will be held on 12
February.
After disavowing any intention to resort to
armed action, Caldera indicated that Venezuela had
no fixed idea as to what means should be used to
move toward a solution of the dispute. He said that
continuation of the mixed commission, some plan tied
to multilateral development of the disputed region,
or a new approach to arbitration would be acceptable.
keep its power to veto Guyana's membership in the
Organization of American States.
10 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Dominican Republic: The economic growth rate
in 19Z-9, the highest since the 1965 revolution,
should help President Balaguer if he becomes a can-
didate in the May 1970. elections. Total output
rose an estimated seven percent, twice as rapidly
as in 1967 or 1968. A major factor was the recov-
ery of agriculture from drought. In addition,
greater business confidence prompted initiation of
a $200-million ferronickel project, as well as other
investments.
10 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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