CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015600110001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 26, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
50
26 February 1970
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No. 0049/70
26 February 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Philippines: A student rally today at the US Embassy
could take a violent turn. (Page 1)
Philippines: Manila has adopted a new floating ex-
change rate. (Page 2)
South Africa: The newest political party has charged
the government with wiretapping. (Page 3)
Guatemala: The elections on 1 March could lead to a
governmental crisis., (Page,4)
Guyana: The country is the first Caribbean member
of the Commonwealth to become a republic. (Page 5)
Laos: No new action (Page 6)
Colombia-Cuba: Relations (Page 6)
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Philippines: A student rally today at the US
Embassy in Manila could take a violent turn.
The protest is.scheduled to focus on alleged
official US connivance in helping American service-
men charged with offenses under Philippine law to
evade prosecution by Philippine courts. Students
have vowed to defy a ban on demonstrations after
5 PM, raising the possibility of a clash with the
police.
Anti-American feeling has been further aroused
by the alleged injury yesterday of a Filipino child
by a car driven by an embassy staff member. The
Manila press can also be expected to exploit the
death yesterday of a Filipino who was killed by
Clark Air Base security guards as he attempted to
break into the base commissary.
Although the Marcos government encouraged last
week's violence at the US Embassy, there is no evi-
dence available that. it is behind the current dem-
onstrations or that it is not prepared to protect
the embassy and US personnel.
26 Feb 70
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Phili ines: Manila has adopted a new floating
exchange rate or the peso in an effort to ease its
balance-of-payments problems.
The value of the peso in terms of other cur-
rencies will be determined largely by free market
forces and the exchange rate will decline substan-
tially, perhaps by 50 percent. The only exception
to the new floating exchange rate is the requirement
that 80 percent of foreign earnings from major export
commodities must still be sold to the Central Bank at
the old rate. This requirement is intended to pre-
vent exporters from making windfall profits from
devaluation. As part of the exchange reform the
government plans to abolish most import restrictions
and controls on other current account transactions.
In the near term at least, devaluation will not
benefit exports much since they consist overwhelmingly
of primary products that are governed by world market
prices. The main impact will be to increase the
domestic price of imported goods. Manila hopes this
will reduce imports and thus slow the outflow of its
already scarce foreign exchange holdings. This,
however, will depend largely on the government's
willingness or ability to impose a strict austerity
program aimed at limiting the expansion of domestic
credit and dampening domestic demand.
The government has announced such plans, but it
remains to be seen whether they will be fully imple-
mented in view of the growing political problems
and the likely outcries over higher
r im-
ported goods.
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South Africa: As the national election cam-
paign enters its final months, South Africa's newest
political party has received a great deal of public-
ity by charging the government with wiretapping and
political surveillance.
Jaap Marais, deputy head of the ultrarightist
Herstigte Nasionale Party (HNP), received in the
mail a classified government document allegedly
proving that South Africa's intelligence service
was tapping the telephones of HNP leaders. Marais
informed seven newspapers, but the police forbade
them to print his statement, claiming that publica-
tion would be prejudicial to state security and a
violation of the Official Secrets Act. A Cape Town
justice has issued a temporary injunction prohibit-
ing Marais from divulging the contents of the docu-
ment, but Marais says he will fight the case in
court.
In the past, South Africans have granted their
government extraordinary powers to counter "enemies"
of the state. Now, however, the HNP has raised the
issue of these powers being turned against "respect-
able" Afrikaners solely for political reasons.
counted on to make political cape al from the gov-
ernment's heavy-handed tactics and from its embar-
rassment over the apparent leakage of security in-
formation. F7 I
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Guatemala: The elections on 1 March could
lead to a governmental crisis.
An unsuccessful assassination attempt against
Guatemala's chief electoral official this week could
be the beginning of a series of attacks designed to
upset electoral procedures.
Although the governing Revolutionary Party (PR)
appears to have the strength for a congressional
victory and at least a plurality in the presidential
contest, a big wave of terrorism before the elec-
tions or on election day could drastically alter the
voting pattern. A particularly sensitive issue is
the outcome in Guatemala City, which is tradition-
ally unpredictable. If the government fails to get
a strong plurality in the capital, where most of
the politically aware elements reside, the mandate
of the government's candidate is certain to be weak-
ened.
Charges by both the rightist and leftist oppo-
sition parties of planned government fraud have been
a principal issue irk the campaign. Rightist presi-
dential candidate Colonel Carlos Arana has made
barely veiled threats to take over the government
in the wake of a fraudulent PR victory.
If the elections are indecisive, they will be
followed by an extremely unsettled period. If no
candidate wins an absolute majority, the congress
is to choose between the two candidates with the
largest number of votes. A prolonged period of po-
litical maneuvering and instability after the bal-
loting would increase the possibility of military
intervention.
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Guyana: The country severed its ties with the
British crown on 23 February and became the first
Caribbean member of the Commonwealth to become a
republic.
The change to republic status is more symbolic
than substantive. An elected president will replace
the governor-general as titular head of state and
will be elected by parliament next month for a six-
year term. Otherwise, the governmental structure
will remain essentially the same.
Prime Minister Burnham has selected High Court
Judge Arthur Chung as his party's presidential can-
didate. The election of the judge is ensured by the
Burnham-controlled legislature. Chung, who is Chi-
nese, is respected and, politically neutral. His
selection is an effort to avoid charges of racial
bias.
Among the current problems the government faces
is the concern in the business community over Burn-
ham's new economic policies. The heavier burdens
imposed on business by the 1970 budget have rein-
forced these fears.
The long-standing border dispute with Venezuela
adds to Burnham's problems. The recent border in-
cidents have hampered negotiations aimed at settling
the dispute.
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NOTES
Laos; There has been no new ground action near
the Pla ne des Jarres. The respite in military ac-
tivity is probably a reflection of Communist efforts
to strengthen their hold over newly won positions
and to resupply front-line troops. Meanwhile, Gen-
eral Vang Pao is moving additional troops into posi-
tion south of the Plaine in anticipation of a Commu-
nist thrust against the government's new defense
line. The Meo leader's determination to defend his
headquarters at Long Tieng apparently has been given
Colombia-Cuba: President Lleras recently af-
firmed tat his country would not be associated with
Chilean efforts to reintegrate Cuba into the inter-
American system. Lleras declared that Cuba would
first have to change its attitude by relinquishing
support for guerrilla movements and ceasing to med-
dle in the domestic affairs of other Latin American
countries. He added that Colombia had spent "major
sums to maintain public order because of the Cubans.
In a later conversation with the US ambassador, For-
eign Minister Lopez added that at present there
would be no Colombian move to normalize relations
with Cuba because Castro had recently and repeat-
edly rejected the notion that Cuba wanted to rejoin
the hemispheric community.
26 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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