CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015700050001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 4, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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No. 0054/70
4 March 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Malaysia: There is a strong degree of uncertainty
out impending changes in the hierarchy. (Page 1)
USSR-Egypt: Friction between Egyptian military of-
ficers and their Soviet advisers has increased. (Page 2)
Dominican Republic: The major opposition party has
decided to abstain from the elections. (Page 3)
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Laos: Communist activities limited (Page 7)
Philippines: Protest march (Page 7)
USSR: Military exercise (Page 7)
Turkey: Demirel government (Page 8)
Cuba: Sugar (Page 9)
Brazil: Coffee (Page 9)
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Mala sia:
a strong degree of uncertainty about impen ing
c anges in the hierarchy.
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It is still not clear when the prime minister,
intends
Rahman has stated that he
will not give up the premiership until internal or-
der is fully restored. June has been his most fre-
quently stated deadline for retirement, but he has
also indicated November as a possible date. These
uncertainties have contributed to the government's
failure to solve its communal problems.
Another problem is whether to allow elections
in Sarawak--suspended after the May 1969 disturb-
ances. Government leaders are divided on the ques-
tion, as there is a good chance that opposition ele-
ments would win a majority of seats in the state
government. Elections are necessary, however, in
both Sarawak and Sabah before parliamentary democ-
racy can be restored in Kuala Lumpur.
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USSR-Egypt: Friction between Egyptian military
officers and their Soviet advisers has increased
markedly since mid-1968 and is now widespread.
Ithe
Soviets are accused o testing "new" ideas and oc-
trines that result in the loss of Egyptian soldiers,
of giving nothing but negative criticism, and of
denigrating the capabilities of Egyptian officers
and men. The Egyptians also believe that by making
critical remarks about the Russians, they can get
into difficulty and even risk the loss of position
or forced retirement.
The Egyptian leadership, however, cannot
afford to allow these frictions to interfere with
military operations or relations with the USSR.
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Dominican Republic: The major opposition party's
decision to abstain from the presidential election in
May has further muddled the political situation.
The convention of the Dominican Revolutionary
Party (PRD) also underscored the party's radical-
ization by approving leftist extremist resolutions,
including solidarity with Cuba, by acclamation. The
result probably leaves PRD moderates with no choice
but to leave the party., Thus, despite the convention's
united public stand, these events seem to be the har-
binger of a party split and its eventual dissolution.
The decision will encourage antigovernment
activities by the party cadres, some of whom already
cooperate with Communist elements.
Assuming, as all parties do, that President
Balaguer will run again, the PRD's decision to abstain
could spark a similar decision by the four other
major opposition parties. They reportedly were meeting
this week to demand that the government guarantee a
free campaign or face withdrawal of their provisional
decisions to participate. It seems more likely, how-
ever, that the remaining parties will stay in the race
and try to get the potential bloc of PRD votes, which
in 1966 was nearly 40 percent of the total.
Balaguer, although the unanimously nominated
candidate of the governing party, continues to be
silent on whether he will seek re-election. Partly
because of this fact, the opposition has yet to mount
an effective campaign.
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Soviet Exercise Preparations Under Way
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Laos: Communist forces are not pressing their
advantage in the north. The Communists have limited
their activities since the capture of the Plaine over
a week ago to small probing attacks and other efforts
directed at providing the current disposition of gov-
ernment forces. Given the limited number of enemy
units involved in this activity and the logistical
constraints the enemy now faces, it may be several
more weeks before the Communists are ready to make
a concerted move against government strongholds south
and west of the Plaine.
Philippines: The march in Manila on 3 March
in which up to 10,000 people took part was a protest
against a police raid on a college campus last week.
An attempt by about 1,000 radicals to converge on the
US Embassy was thwarted by strong Philippine security
forces, whose restrained handling of the demonstrators
kept the number of injuries low. The students and
other groups, nevertheless, are likely to continue their
protests against both the government and the US.
USSR: Preparations are under way for a large
exercise in the Belorussian SSR. Tass reported on
3 March that units taking part in the exercise--
designated "Dvina"--are moving toward the maneuver
area. Previous announcements suggested that it would
be one of the largest ever held and would involve
troops from all branches of service from several military
districts. The maneuvers probably will consist of
large tactical demonstrations, such as river crossings,
airborne landings, and ground support exercises.
(Map)
(continued)
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Tuurrkey: Prime Minister Demirel appears to have
gatherer nearly enough support to form a new majority
government. He may not attempt to obtain a vote of
confidence for another week or two, however, in the
hope of widening his margin. The opposition, par-
ticularly Ismet Inonu, leader of the Republican People's
Party, has begun a sharp attack on Demirel for pro-
crastination and for alleged "corruption" in an effort
to unseat him permanently. The political situation
generally remains calm, but the longer the problem
remains unsolved, the greater the loss of prestige
for Demirel and loss of confidence in the parliamentary
system.
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(continued)
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Cuba: This year's sugar harvest is falling
farther behind schedule, although a record crop still
seems possible. Statistics in the Cuban press indicate
that the four-million-ton mark will not be reached
until 5 March. On 28 February, the date by which four
million tons were to have been produced, production
stood at 3.75 million tons. A continuation of the wide
range of problems prevalent in the three key sugar-
producing provinces--La.s Villas, Camaguey, and Oriente--
would clearly preclude achievement of the highly-pub-
licized harvest goal of ten million tons. If the
spring rains begin as usual in early May, the shortfall
could be great. In any event, however, production
almost certainly will surpass the Castro regime's
previous high of 6.8 million tons in 1961.
Brazil: A struggle for control of the policy-
making Brazilian Coffee Institute (IBC) has culminated
in the recent resignation of the minister of industry
and commerce, who stressed growers' interests exclu-
sively. President Medi.ci's appointment of a new
minister and new senior IBC officials returns decisions
on coffee policy ,to a faction headed by Finance Minister
Delfim Neto. This faction is expected to take a more
balanced and far-sighted approach to coffee policy than
its predecessors. Conflicting interests between Brazil
and its customers regarding coffee prices, however,
promise to ake negotiations difficult, at least in the
short run.
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Secret
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