CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015700120001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 12, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5 41.
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No. 0061/70
12 March 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: Sihanouk is returning home, apparently
determined to reassert his authority. (Page 1)
Australia: The defense minister has broadened the
commitment to regional defense. (Page 3)
Burma: The level of Communist insurgency this dry
season has been unusually low. (Page 5)
Japan: Tokyo is easing restrictions on travel to
Communist countries. (Page 6)
Panama: The government is pressing the US to grant
extradition of a top Arias aide. (Page 7)
Ecuador: The stage is set for another round of gov-
ernment-student clashes. (Page 8)
Bolivia:
Anti-US demonstration (Page
9)
Peru: Stand-by credit (Page 9)
Iraq: Kurdish settlement (Page 10)
Italy: New government (Page 10)
Indonesia-USSR: Debt rescheduling (Page 10)
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*Cambodia: Sihanouk is returning to Cambodia,
apparently determined to reassert his authority,
The Cambodian chief of state has canceled his
scheduled visits.-to Prague, Moscow, and Peking
Sihanouk and the government have
been a ogger ea s for some time now, but the vio-
lent anti-Vietnamese demonstrations represent the
first overt attempt on the government's part to un-
dermine Sihanouk's foreign policy. While Sihanouk
has been in the forefront of criticism of Vietnam-
ese Communist activities in Cambodia, he has taken
some care to avoid pressing the Communists too faro
What the government leaders hoped to achieve
by the violent demonstrations is still far from
clear, By playing on traditional Cambodian animos-
ity toward the Vietnamese, they may have wanted to.
confront Sihanouk with an issue on which popular
opinion would be against him, They may also, how
ever, have miscalculated Sihanouk's reaction, Up
to now, the governments strategy has been slowly
and carefully to limit Sihanouk's power.
At any rate, the government leaders must now
decide whether to meet Sihanouk head-on or give
ground. Much will depend on how hard Sihanouk
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presses them when he returns to the capital and
whether individuals like Deputy Prime Minister
Sirik Matak, who has led the anti-Sihanouk forces,
calculate that they can count on firm anA ntinuing
support from those forces. F77
*Because of the shortage of Tuna for preparation of this iteiu, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State.
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Australia: Defense Minister Malcolm Fraser has
reconfirmed and broadened Australia's commitment to
regional defense.
In the most comprehensive defense planning state-
ment in recent years, Fraser told parliament on 10
March that, within the limits of its resources, Aus-
tralian military capability must be geared both for
direct defense of Australia and for deployment in
Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean area. In describ-
ing the changing security scene, which he said de-
manded increased Australian responsibility and self-
reliance, he discussed growing Soviet activity in the
area, the continuing Chinese threat, Japan's role as
a stabilizing factor, the "irreversible" British with-
drawal, and the Nixon doctrine. He expressed under-
standing and acceptance of the latter.
Fraser outlined in some detail how Australia
plans to reorganize its defense structure, purchase
new equipment, and beef up its defense infrastructure.
These plans involve new naval installations at two
locations on the west coast and one on the north, and
a five-year purchase program which includes among
other items 137 helicopters, ten strike aircraft, and
two submarines. He said Australia would strive for
maximum strategic flexibility and for compatibility
of weapons and equipment with the US and New Zealand.
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BURMA: Insurgen
Activity At Low Level
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Burma: Communist insurgents have not yet shown
their customary dry season. aggressiveness.
In normally troublesome areas along the.Chinese
border, there have been no reported major engagements
with Chinese Communist - backed insurgents since late
December, and government casualties from minor skir-
mishes and rebel ambushes have been relatively light.
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In central Burma continued army pressure on the
oldest Communist insurgent group, the White Flags,
has forced them to relocate their headquarters in
less familiar surroundings. They now have to contend
with a hostile peasantry as well as government forces.
The Burmese are facing increased terrorism from
formerly cooperative local self-defense forces in
towns in Shan State. Some of these units went under-
ground last fall after the Burmese arrested one of
their leaders. Ethnic groups elsewhere, in a state
of rebellion for 22 years, are maintaining their cus-
tomary. level of harassment. This taxes the Burmese
militar but represents no real threat to the govern-
ment.
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Japan: Tokyo is easing restrictions on travel
to Communist countries with which it has no diplo-
matic relations.
The move will primarily affect Communist China,
North Korea, and North Vietnam, but travel to East
Germany, Albania, and Mongolia is also included.
Tokyo is concerned over the "unrealistic attitude"
toward Japan held by the Asian Communist countries,
and wants to
encourage travei y a more representative spectrum
of Japanese than businessmen and ideological sympa-
thizers.
South Korea has already lodged an official pro-
test over the Japanese action, and Nationalist China
and South Vietnam may also register their displeas-
ure with Tokyo.
Japan's re-evaluation of its travel policy may
well have been brought about by the government's de-
sire to liberalize restrictions on travel to and from
Communist China in order to show a "forward looking"
attitude toward the trade talks that have just opened
in Peking. The easing of travel restrictions, how-
ever, also reflects a growing consensus in Japan,
both inside and outside the government, that travel
regulations should be more flexible in keeping wi
current political realities.
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Panama: The government is increasing its pres-
sure on the US to grant extradition of Hildebrando
Nicosia, a top aide of deposed president Arias.
Nicosia, who served as minister of the presidency
during the short-lived Arias administration in October
of 1968, sought asylum in the Canal Zone on 28 February
after unsuccessfully trying to organize a coup against
the government. Although the Panamanians have charged
him with embezzlement, the extradition request is un-
doubtedly motivated by a desire to punish him for his
political activities.
I The extradition request has thus
tar been elayedbynormal judicial procedures, and
further delay may result from appeals by Nicosia's
defense counsel.
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Ecuador: The closure of a high school and the
firing of its popular rector have set the stage for
another round of government-student clashes.
The issue being used this time by student leaders
in their continuing assault on the government is the
abolition of the premilitary training program. Al-
though students in one of Quito's high schools have
been on strike since 3 March, their protest had been
relatively mild and nonviolent.
President Velasco, viewing the strike as another
indication of the degeneration and lack of discipline
of Ecuadorean youth, accepted the resignation of the
school's rector and closed the school on 9 March.
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This overreaction to the student problem appears
to be indicative of the general frustration felt by
Velasco as his more serious financial problems remain
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Bolivia: Left-wing students have announced
that amonstration will be held on 13 March to
protest the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State
for Inter-American Affairs Meyer. The students have
invited labor and other "progressive" elements to
participate, probably in the hope of duplicating
their success in limiting Governor Rockefeller?s
visit last May to a two-hour airport stopover,
President Ovando has been looking forward to the
visit, however, and should be in a much better po-
sition to control.the students than was his civil-
ian predecessor.
Peru: The stand-by credit that has just been
negotiated with a mission from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) should allow foreign debt refi-
nancing arrangements to go into effect. Peru?s
foreign creditors have insisted upon this as a con-
dition for granting the debt relief negotiated last
year. The amount of the credit has not been an-
nounced, however, pending its approval
by IMF -
rectors.
(continued)
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C Iraq: Spokesmen for the Baathist regime and
the re Kurds yesterday announced an agreement to
end their fighting. For several months Baghdad had
been attempting to arrange a settlement with Kurdish
leader Barzani, who has been wary of the government's
offers for peace. Details of the settlement are not
clear, nor is the finality of any agreement certain;
a similar pact in 1966 gradually deteriorated into
serious fighting by the fall of 1968.
Italy: Following former premier Aldo Moro's
decision not to undertake to form a new government,
President Saragat is reported turning to another
former premier, Amintore Fanfani, in a further at-
tempt to stave off early parliamentary elections.
Fanfani presumably would head an all Christian Dem-
ocratic government. His decision on whether to ac-
cept such a mandate is likely to be heavily influ-
enced by his assessment of the effect this would
have on his chances for the presidency next year.
Indonesia-USSR: Foreign Minister Malik's visit
to Moscow in late February failed to produce an
agreement on the rescheduling of Djakarta's $800-
million debt to the USSR. Another round of talks
on the problem is to be held later this year.
Prior to the Malik visit, Western creditors had
failed to approve a generous debt repayment proposal
that could have set a precedent for negotiations
with Moscow. Djakarta probably will now seek to de-
fer future talks on its Soviet debt until a long-
term agreement can be reached on the rescheduling
of Indonesia's free world debts, while Moscow will
continue to press for an earlier settlement.
(continued)
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