CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015900010001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 10, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 27, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
50'
27 March 1970
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SL(.Ri I'
No. 0074/70
27 March 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: The first signs of organized pro-Sihanouk
sentiment have appeared. (Page 1)
Thailand-USSR: Bangkok has signed a trade agreement
with the Soviet Union. (Page 3)
Japan-US: Japanese textile firms continue to resist
pressure to limit exports to the US. (Page 4)
Communist China - Kenya: Peking is trying to improve
its political position in Kenya. (Page 5)
Lebanon: The government faces another severe test as
a result of recent clashes. (Page 6)
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Honduras: President Lopez apparently has decided not
to step down next year. (Page 8)
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INTELSAT: The recent conference made some progress
toward agreement. (Page 10)
Romania: Ceausescu has unveiled a program to carry
agriculture into the modern age. (Page 11)
Arms Control: Seabeds treaty (Page 12)
West Germany: Submarines for Greece (Page 12)
USSR-Algeria: Trade cancellation (Page 13)
Tunisia: Criminal proceedings (Page 13)
Dahomey: Presidential election (Page 14)
India: Punjab government falls (Page 14)
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Cambodia: The situation is still quiet in the
capital and other areas of the country.
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On the foreign affairs front, press reports in-
dicate that the government called in North Vietnamese
and Viet Cong representatives for talks yesterday.
The Cambodians evidently are endeavoring to place the
onus on the Communists for any breakdown in relations.
Both Peking and Moscow are keeping their options
open. The tone of Sihanouk's recent pronouncements,
as released by one official Chinese news agency, sug-
gests a substantial degree of Chinese inspiration.
Peking, unlike Hanoi, however, has not explicitly
given public support for Sihanouk's return to power.
The Chinese are taking part in the pressure campaign
against the Cambodian Government by providing a plat-
form for Sihanouk. At the same time, they apparently
hope to maintain their position in Phnom Penh to be
able to support and perhaps help arrange an eventual
modus vivendi between the Vietnamese Communists and
the new Cambodian Government. If this proves impos-
sible, Peking would not hesitate to back Hanoi and
Sihanouk in more forceful measures they may be plan-
ning.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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The Soviets are clearly unhappy over the pros-
pects for a widened war, as indicated by their fail-
ure to acknowledge Sihanouk's most recent statements.
They are also concerned that China will be able to
exploit the Cambodian situation to its advantage.
Moscow, however, apparently intends to remain on the
sidelines until the situation clarifies.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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Thailand-USSR: After several years of inter-
mittent negotiations, Bangkok has announced it will
sign a trade agreement with the Soviet Union.
This is Thailand's first official economic
agreement with Moscow, although small amounts of
trade have been conducted informally between the two
countries for years. The trade pact is expected to
pave the way for an air agreement that Moscow has
been seeking as part of its effort to expand air
service in the Far East. Bangkok has blocked such
a pact pending conclusion of the trade agreement.
Bangkok's first trade agreement with a Commu-
nist country was signed with Bulgaria earlier this
month, and negotiations are under way with all East
European countries except East Germany and Albania.
The trade agreements are a major step in Bang-
kok's policy of expanding economic and political re-
lations with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
The Thai have for several years fended off Soviet
efforts to formalize commercial relations, princi-
pally for political considerations. Bangkok's will-
ingness to go ahead with the treaty testifies to the
growing acceptance among the leadership of Foreign
Minister Thanat's campaign to improve Thailand's re-
lations with the Communist world.
These agreements are not expected to lead to a
sharp increase in Thai trade with the Communists.
Thai leaders are hoping for some early economic re-
wards, however, includin wider markets for their
agricultural products.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Japan-US: Japanese textile firms are continu-
ing to resist pressure from their government to
limit exports to the US.
The government has been encouraging Japanese
firms to accept a new compromise proposal by a top
US business leader that calls for one year of com-
prehensive "voluntary" quotas. These quotas would
allow textile exports at a level slightly higher than
that actually reached in 1969. Leaders of the Jap-
anese industry have publicly opposed the plan as un-
reasonable, claiming that the US has not proved that
Japanese exports are damaging the US textile indus-
try. There is some evidence, however, that the ma-
jor Japanese firms are willing to consider the new
US proposal, or something like it, but that the
smaller firms remain opposed.
The opposition parties, abetted by heavy press
play on the subject, have made it into a domestic
political issue. The government, anxious to avoid
the appearance of selling out Japanese interests,
maintains that any agreement must be acceptable to
Japanese industry.
The Sato government is clearly concerned that
failure to reach a satisfactory agreement soon could
damage the government's currently strong domestic
position as well as detract from recent achievements
in relations with the US. Tokyo will probably con-
tinue to push the Japanese textile industry to find
some acceptable compromise, while at the same time
parrying criticism by insisting publicly that Jap-
anese textile interests are not being sacrificed.
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Communist China - Kenya: Peking is showing new
interest in improving its weak political position in
Kenya.
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The Chinese have good reason to seek an improve-
ment of their position in Kenya. China's image there
has been poor since 1967 when excesses of the Cultural
Revolution caused the Nairobi government to close its
embassy in Peking. Since that time, China's influence
has further deteriorated, largely as a result of
numerous anti-Chinese press stories that have played
up Peking's alleged "subversive" designs against the
present regime. Peking's image suffered an especially
severe setback last summer when the embassy failed to
fly its flag at half mast following the assassination
of Tom Mboya--a move interpreted in the press at the
time as a sign of Chinese involvement in the slaying.
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Lebanon: The government faces another severe
test as a result of Wednesday's clashes between Leb-
anese Christians and Palestinian commandos.
The two factions involved in this particular
struggle evidently are looking for trouble. The
far-right Christian Phalanges Party is becoming more
militant. It is the standard-bearer for many Chris-
tians who want to maintain Lebanese sovereignty in-
tact in the face of increasing demands from the fed-
ayeen for more independence of action within Lebanese
territory.
The government therefore will find it
i icu to restore order; if it orders the Lebanese
Army--whose leaders are antifedayeen--to crack doh
profedayeen Muslims will take to the streets. I I
27 Mar 70 Central 1iltclligcncc' Bulletin
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Honduras: President Lopez apparently has de-
cided not to step down when his term ends next year.
On Wednesday the minister of economy informed
the US ambassador that Lopez will continue in office
after 1971. This decision, which has the strong
support of the military, runs counter to constitu-
tional provisions. Lopez is likely to use the con-
tinued tensions with El Salvador as justification
for his action.
There is little chance that Lopez' ambitions
will be frustrated as long as he retains military
support. He is nonetheless trying to preser-re
some semblance of legality to avoid any unrest that
might be aroused by his continuing in office. A
constituent assembly will be called, and a "gc?ern-
ment of national unity" is planned, which would in-
clude representatives of business, labor, and the
opposition Liberal Party. Although there will be
some opposition to the plan, with tactful handling
the Liberal Party may be persuaded to go along with
Lopez' scheme.
27 Mar 70 Central lnielliw'nee Bulletin
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INTELSAT: The recently recessed conference of
the International Telecommunications Satellite Con-
sortium (INTELSAT) made some progress toward agree-
ment on definitive arrangements for the organization.
When the conference opened on 16 February, the
US and several European countries were far apart on
the key question of how INTELSAT should be managed.
The European countries insisted on an immediate de-
cision calling for internationalization of both tech-
nical and nontechnical management, while the US wanted
the technical management of the organization to stay
in the hands of the US Communications Satellite Corpo-
ration (COMSAT) for a set period pending further study
and a final decision on the management question.
After wrestling with this issue for most of the
conference, a compromise was suggested by Japan and
Australia. This formula would essentially preserve
COMSAT's role for six more years. During the sixth
year, an international staff would be trained to assume
all management functions. COMSAT could continue to
play an important technical role on contract, however.
While this formula greatly narrowed differences
on the main issue, when efforts were made to reduce
the proposal to treaty language, differences arose
not only on language but also on the powers of the
conference and its relationship to the other organs
of the system. There are, moreover, a number of other
issues that remain unresolved. The conference there-
fore decided to set up a working group that will begin
in May to try to produce an acceptable text. The
conference itself may reconvene by next September.
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Romania: Party and government chief Ceausescu
has unveiled a grandiose program to carry agriculture,
long the stepchild of the Romanian economy, into the
modern age.
The agricultural sector, the target of severe
criticism by the Ceausescu regime, has not made any
significant advance during the last three years. At
the same time, industry, aided by the preponderant
share of investments and by the importation of modern
Western equipment, has grown rapidly. Ceausescu has
now indicated that an attempt will be made in the
1970s to remedy this disparity.
The new programs stress modern land amelioration
techniques--50 percent of the arable land is to be
irrigated by 1980--and rapid expansion of livestock
holdings. Investments in agriculture during 1971-75
will be more than double the level of the preceding
five-year period.
The plans are extremely optimistic'and some
goals, such as doubling livestock production in a
five-year period, appear unrealistic. The costs of
these programs will be very high. In addition to
direct investments in agriculture and in industry
for the production of more agricultural machinery
and equipment, Romania will suffer an added hard
currency pinch, exports of grain will have to be
reduced in order to support the livestock program,
and imports of Western farm e ui ment and technology
will have to be expanded.
27 Mar 70 Central intelli ,cn e Bulletin
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Arms Control: The Swedes are pushing the other
nonaligned delegates at the Geneva disarmament talks
to avoid rapid approval of the US-USSR draft seabeds
treaty. Stockholm wants them to join in demanding
reference in the draft to "appropriate international
procedures" as one method of verifying compliance
with the treaty's limitations on military utilization
of the ocean floor. Moscow appears to regard such an
amendment as opening the way for establishing an inter-
national organization to control peaceful uses of the
seabeds. Sweden hopes that the nonaligned states, by
withholding their endorsement of the treaty, can ob-
tain a modification of the Soviet stand.
West Germany: Bonn has announced to the WEU
Council that it intends to proceed with the construc-
tion of four small submarines for delivery to Greece
sometime in mid-1971. As anticipated, Germany argued
that authorization for this project had been granted
in 1963 by a special amendment to the Brussels Treaty.
This exception to the limitations on German submarine
construction was originally intended, however, to
apply to submarines for the West German Navy. So far
there has been no reaction by the Council members to
the West German proposal, but the Bonn foreign min-
istry remains concerned that some members may still
raise objections.
(continued)
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USSR-Algeria: Algeria is considering cancellation
of its 1968 agreement to sell wine to the Soviet Union.
The pact, signed after France sharply curtailed its
purchases of Algerian wine, called for the USSR to
buy about $40 million worth of wine annually for
seven years. The Soviets, however, agreed to pay
only the world market price---about one half the recent
price paid by the French--and refused to make partial
payment in convertible currencies. In October 1969,
France promised to buy five million hectoliters of
wine from Algeria this year---the amount France had
failed to purchase under the 1964-70 wine accord. As
yet, however, France has not concluded a long-term
wine purchase agreement.
Tunisia: The criminal proceedings that have
begun against former economic minister Ahmed Ben
Salah may further undermine confidence in Prime
Minister Ladgham's government. Ben Salah is accused
of, among other things, mismanagement of the economy,
waste of public funds, exceeding his powers, and
abuse of the president's confidence. Many educated
Tunisians, although hostile to Ben Salah and his
programs, believe that the president, prime minister,
and other members of the government are equally re-
sponsible and that it is unjust to single out Ben
Salah for prosecution. Those young people and intel-
lectuals sympathetic to Ben Salah will consider the
trial an attack on socialism.
(continued)
27 Mar 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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Dahomey: Balloting in the month-long presiden-
tial election is scheduled to end this weekend, and
it now appears that Hubert Maga, the country's first
president, will win if the vote is completed without
interference. With fraud, violence, and tribal fric-
tions that have accompanied the voting increasing,
the possibility of military intervention is also
growing. Former president Apithy, who led in the
early stages of the election, has already declared
he will challenge the results through the courts,
the electoral commission, and the military govern-
India: The fall of the government in the north-
west state of Punjab on 25 March resulted from in-
ternal dissension within the Akali Dal--the party
with a plurality in the state legislature as well as
the communal party of the Sikhs, the largest ethnic
group in the Punjab. Present maneuvering by the
resultant two wings of the Akalis with other parties
in the legislature could eventually result in the
formation of a new, but probably unstable, governing
coalition. At present, the leader of each wing claims
a majority for his tentative coalition and it will be
up to the governor, an appointee of New Delhi, to
determine which faction is to be given the opportunity
to form a new government. Failure of either side to
come up with a viable regime within a reasonable
period of time could lead to direct rule by the cen-
tral government and eventual elections.
Central Intelliw'ner Bulletin 14
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