CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015900100001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 7, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECT"ORATE OlF
INTE]:LIGENCE
Centr~cl Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
JCS review(s) ~~
completed.
7 April 1970
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No. 0083/70
7 April 1970
Central Intelligeyzce Bulletin
CONTENTS'
USSR: Authorities have officially reported the
illnesses of four leading memk~ers of the politburo.
(Page 1)
South Vietnam: Trte raid. against Communist base areas
in Ca odia wwas carried out by a strong government
force, (Page 3}
Communist China - USSR: Peking has sharply criti-
c~. e~ehe Soviet leadership recently. (Page 4)
India: Prime Min~_ster Gandhi's prestige has suffered
at leleast a short-term setback (Page 5)
Ethiopia: The principal insurgent leader in restive
Bale Province has surrendered. (Page 6)
Dominican Republic:: Balaguer?s strong response to
dis~tur~~ances may ~~ampen opposition enthusiasm for a
showdown. (Page ;~)
East Germany - Sannalia: Recognition (Page 8)
European Cammunit~.es: US relations (Page 8)
UN-Cam~~odia: Meeting opposed (~?age 8}
Guiana-Venezuela: Talks stalled (Page 9)
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USSR: In an unusual move"to quash rumors of
dissension in the leadership Soviet authorities have
officially reported the illnesses of four leading
members of the politburo.
The four--President Padgarny, Premier Kosygin,
and politburo members Suslov and Shelepin--have re-
cently :been absent. from official functions. Their
absences have come amid persistent reports of a ma-
jor shake-up among officials i.n the culture and
propaganda field perhaps related to maneuvers in the
top leadership.
Po~dgorny canceled a scheduled trip to Japan on
short n~~tice, and Japanese officials were informed
on 3 April that he would not be able to go because
of a cold. Kosygin was publicly active up through
30 March, but he was not on hand to see General Sec-
retary :Brezhnev off to Hungary on 1 April.
Su;~lov last appeared in public at a writers'
congres;~ on 24 March. Shelepin has probably been
ill singe late February when h.e canceled a trip to
Sudan ai'~ the last :moment.
Another polit:bura member, First Deputy Premier
Polyans}cy, has also been out of sight for several
weeks arzd may have a health problem. He last ap-
peared :Ln public o:n 24 March and has missed several
important affairs.
7 Apr 70
Centr,~l Intelligence L~z~lletin
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South Vietnam: The South Vietnamese raid against
Communist base areas iri Cambodia on 5 April was car-
ried out: by a strong government force.
The U5 command in Saigon reports that two South
Vietnamese battalion's supported by armor and air-
strikes hit Communt units in the large Cambodian
salient west of Saigon, No information is yet avail-
able on the results of the attack.
It is unlikel~~ that the latest raid was under-
taken without the ~~pproval of the highest levels in
the Saigon government. The last }mown foray across
the border was on 28-29 March when South Vietnamese
ground i=orces atta~~ked enemy bases opposite Ch au Doc
ProvincE: in the de:Lta.
ThE: Communists, meanwhile, are maintaining pres-
sure
ag~~inst the Dak Seang Special Forces camp in
the
highlands. South Vietnamese Rangers sent in to
help
protect the camp fought two sharp actions on 5
April.
The Rangers have performed well against pre-
vious en
emy siege. operations. Since 1 April, the
South Vi
etnamese have lost 26 men ki.~,~.ed, and at
least ni
ne Americans have also died in the fighting.
Enemy la
sses reportedly are about 250 killed.
Elsewhere in the country, light Communist shell-
ings ar~? still numerous, but ground action is taper-
ing off.
7 Ap r 7 0 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Communist China - USSR: Peking has sharply
criticize t e Soviet leadership recently, but has
avoided sensitive bilateral issues.
A broadcast on 4 April pointedly denounced the
current agricultural program of the Brezhnev leader-
ship, and charged that its "Hitler-like" policy of
guns instead of butter had worsened an already se-
rious food crisis. In particular it scored Moscow's
alleged imitation of the discredited agricultural
policies of the Khrushchev regime. In a similar
vein, Peking blasted the "Brezhnev renegade clique"
last week for selling out Soviet interests in Sibe-
ria--a reference to the recent grant of an air route
across the USSR--in order to gain favor with the
.Tapanese Government.
Peking almost certainly judges that recent re-
ports of dissatisfaction in the USSR with a number
~~f the regime's current programs have made Moscow
vulnerable to this type of attack. Furthermore,
Peking probably intends these attacks to be a re-
sponse to the recent marked increase in Soviet propa-
ganda charges that China is jeopardizing the Peking
border talks and engaging in "provocative" military
activity along the frontier.
Nevertheless, China continues to mute polemics
on bilateral Sino-Soviet problems in order to portray
itself as the more reasonable party in the dispute
and to avoid giving Moscow a convenient excuse to
break off or downgrade the discussions in Pekincr.
7 Apr 70
Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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India: Prime Minister Gandhi?s prestige has
suffered at least a short-term setback as a result
of the z?ough treatment police gave demonstrators
yesterd~~y in New DE:lhi.
Press reports indicate that 50 persons including
six memk~ers of parliament, were injured in a melee
when police tried t:o break up a group of about 5,000
demonstY~ators, led by the opposition Samyukta Social-
ist Party. They wE:re marching on the national par-
liament building to demand improvements in social
welfare.
Mr~~. Gandhi's supporters defeated a subsequent
adjournment motion in parliament that implied cen-
sure of the government for the police action. The
vote, however, was her closest call since the Con-
gress P~~rty split :Last November.
ThE: prime minister has attempted to cast her-
self_as the champion of the down-trodden and has
promised an official inquiry. Government sensitivity
on the subject is apparent in .Home Minister Chavan's
statement offering "one hundred percent apologies."
Because police come under his jurisdiction, the op-
positioxi parties have demanded his resignation. He
is one c>f the key :Figures in Mrs. Gandhi's govern-
ment, however, and is unlikely to be sacrificed un-
less shE~ considers it essential to preserve her
precarious majority in parliament.
7 Apr 70
G'entr~l Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Ethiopia: The principal insurgent leader in
restive Bale Province has surrendered.
After five years of sporadic but effective
guerrilla activity, Waqo Guto of the rebellious
Arusi Galla tribe has finally come to terms with the
government and accepted an amnesty. Guto was not
defeated in the field, but surrendered as a result
of intensive military operations that have been con-
ducted in Bale over the past three months.
The insurgents have never seriously threatened
the government's hold on the province. Over the
past two years, however, they have been able to tie
down increasing numbers of troops in costly and, up
to now, largely futile counterinsurgency operations.
Moreover, Guto's escapes across the border into So-
malia, where he received military assistance as well
as sanctuary, periodically added to the chronic
troubles between Somalia and Ethiopia.
Guto's surrender may prove to be a mortal blow
to the insurgency. If so, it will reduce a heavy
drain on the government's financial and military
resources. Whether or not the province will stay
quiet remains to be seen. The government has ruled
this remote and undeveloped area with a heavy and
inept hand. It is questionable whether Addis Ababa
will take the steps needed to pacify the tradition-
ally restless Arusi Galla with effective local admin-
istration, or will be able to furnish the necessar
economic and social development nroiectsJ
7 Apr 70
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Dominican Republic. President Balaguer's
strong response ta~public disturbances may dampen
opposition enthusiasm for a showdown at this time,
Oti~er the wee}:end the President reacted to the
increased agitation, which has included shooting in-
cidents~ and widespread student disorders, by closing
the schools in the: urban areas until June. The gov-
ernment~ also took control of hospitals currently
paralyzed by a doctor's strike.
In typical fashion, Balaguer tempered his stand
somewhat by establishing a civilian commission to
investigate chargE:s of interference in the electoral
process. He also suggested he is willing to talk
with opposition lE:aders who are threatening to boy-
cott th,e election;a on 16 May. Leading church digni-
taries have publicly called for a dialogue and op-
position figures Yaave contacted Foreign-Minister
Amiama Tio, who may serve as an intermediary in dis-
cussions with the President. Although major out-
breaks of violence this week would probably force
the disputants to harden their positions, the use
of Amia,rna could px:ovide a fade-saving way to move
toward a compromise,
Th,e situation is, however, highly unsettled
and wi1,1 remain so until a direct dialogue with Bal-
aguer is openedm There is increased talk of a gen-
eral strike in they near future Although the oppo-
sition bloc does riot appear ready to back such a
.plan, sporadic work stoppages and further disorders
are increasingly }_ikely if the impasse continues.
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NC?TES
East German~_ Somalia: The Moga.discio gov-
ernment reportedly wi.11 soon announce its decision
t.o recognize East Germany. Pankow's Foreign Minis-
tEr Winzer, who arrived ire Somalia yesterday, will
probably work out final details. The East Germans
have already offered military assistance as a quid
pro quo,. Somalia will be the eighth "third world"
Mate to recognize Pankow in the past year.
UN-Cambodia: Most UN Security Council members
oppose the possibility of a meeting on the Cambodian
situation
IA
number of the me ers elieve suc a session wou
quickly degenerate into an acrimonious debate be-
tween Western and Communist representatives on South-
east Asian issues, including Vietnam.- They would also
like to avoid what could be a delicate credentials
fight in view of Sihanouk's continued claim to le-
gitimacy.
(continued)
7 Apr 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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G~u
ana-Venezuela: The lack of progress during
talks^r
n
Tooago lastweek has dimmed ho
es for an
.
interim
solution to the border dispute.
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Venezue a re~
jetted Guyana s proposals a a neu~ al presence
be stationed on the border and that a long-term mor?
atorium on the dispute be declared. Guyana?s long-
standing offer to submit the quarrel to the Inter-
national Court of Justice was also refused. Efforts
to schedule a meeting between the foreign ministers
of both countries are under. way. There have been no
further clashes since the flare-~up last February?
but troops remain in position along the border.
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Secret
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