CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A016000020001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 16, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 10, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
150
10 April 1970
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No. 0086/70
10 April 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Laos: The government's response to the Communist
peace proposal leaves the door open for talks.
(Page 1)
North Vietnam: Le Duc Tho is returning to Hanoi
from Paris. (Page 4)
South Vietnam: Thieu plans to seek legislation giv-
ing him special decree powers. (Page 5)
Communist China: The first anniversary of the ninth
congress received only lackluster treatment. (Page 6)
Poland: Warsaw will face increasing labor problems
over the next few years. (Page 7)
Canada: New draft legislation would in effect grant
Canada full control over the archipelago. (Page 9)
Dominican Republic: Negotiations to end the impasse
between Balaguer and the opposition are under way.
(Page 10)
Rhodesia: The governing party will easily win to-
day's general election. (Page 11)
USSR: Leadership (Page 13)
Burma: Insurgency (Page 13)
Lesotho: Political discussions (Page 13)
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Laos: The government's response to the Lao Com-
munist peace proposal is toughly worded but leaves
the door open for talks.
The government statement, which came out of
several weeks of consultations between Prime Minister
Souvanna and prominent Lao politicians, was delivered
to Pathet Lao representative Soth Phetrasy in Vien-
tiane yesterday following final cabinet approval.
In essence, the government's response amounts
to a counterproposal to the Neo Lao Hak Sat's state-
ment of 6 March. Sidestepping the Communist demand
for an unconditional bombing halt before negotia-
tions or an end to the fighting, the text calls for
a total cease-fire and immediate withdrawal of "for-
eign forces," supervised by the International Con-
trol Commission. It also calls for a meeting of
"interested parties" in order to seek an equitable
solution.
The message is replete with references to North
Vietnamese aggression in Laos and makes it clear
that this is at the heart of the country's diffi-
culties. It does not, however, pose the withdrawal
of North Vietnamese troops as a precondition to a
cease-fire or talks. The reference to a cease-fire
in "all zones without exception," which presumably
would include the Ho Chi Minh trail area, may have
been designed to appeal specifically to Hanoi. Gov-
ernment leaders probably realize, however, that the
Communists would almost certainly reject meaningful
supervision of their "liberated areas."
Heavy fighting has again broken out near Bouam
Long, the government's most important base north of
the Plaine des Jarres. On the night of 8-9 April,
several hundred North Vietnamese troops attacked
four outposts commanding the southern approaches to
the base. Guerrilla defenders successfully repulsed
10 Apr 70
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AREA OF
MAIN MAP
Vientiane
20 M i les
10
30 20 Kilometers
Xieng
Khouangville
? Communist-held Ipcatiori.
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Bouam
Longs
' Heavy enemy attacks
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all of the attacks, but large numbers of enemy
troops--probably from the North Vietnamese 312th
Division--continue to maneuver throughout the area.
Bouam Long itself remains under sporadic artillery
fire. The Communist actions have already neutralized
several of the government's heavy weapons in the
area, and the situation is described as serious.
South of the Plaine, government forces are con.-
tinuing to close in on the key enemy position at Tha
Tam Bleung.
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North Vietnam: Le Duc Tho, the real power in
North Vietnam s delegation at the Paris talks, is
returning to Hanoi.
North Vietnamese officials have announced in
Paris that he leaves today. Tho returned to Paris
in late January, after a seven-month absence, osten-
sibly for the French Communist Party Congress. Why
he stayed on for some two months after the congress
has never been made clear.
His trip probably is connected with a new round
of decision-making in Hanoi, possibly involving the
situation in Cambodia and last week's proposals by
France for international consultations on Indochina.
Hanoi so far has met these developments by tempo-
rizing--with a mixture of rhetoric and measured mus-
cle in Cambodia--and by sidestepping the French idea.
s a politburo member and as the re-
gime's man in Paris, Tho probably would have a voice
in any decisions that are to be made. His departures
from Paris in the past have seemed to signal the
start of over-all policy reviews.
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South Vietnam: President Thieu's plan to seek
legislation giving him special decree powers is
likely to meet considerable resistance in the Na-
tional Assembly.
Prime Minister Khiem did not indicate how the
government would use such powers, which he described
as a "general program" law directed at solving eco-
nomic problems, when he disclosed Thieu's intention
to the Upper House on 8 April. South Vietnamese
officials have to:Ld US Embassy officers that Thieu
seeks such powers so that he can attack a wide range
of problems, including taxation, exchange rates, and
the budget. They acknowledge, however, that this
authority might be used to deal with more specific
problems, such as the grievances of disabled veter-
ans.
The regime is already under heavy criticism for
relying on extraconstitutional devices like the mil-
itary field court, which was functioning even before
the constitution came into force and which only re-
cently convicted Assemblyman Tran Ngoc Chau. More-
over, the Assembly is jealous of what it regards as
its prerogatives, particularly in the economic field,
and would probably be reluctant to grant Thieu very
extensive authority. Thieu's imposition of auster-
ity taxes by decree last fall raised a storm of pro-
test. both within the Assembly and throughout the
count and is still a cause of widespread discon-
tent.
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Communist China: The first anniversary of the
Chinese Communist Party's ninth congress has received
only lackluster treatment in the regime's authorita-
tive party journal.
The anniversary article appearing in the latest
issue of Red Flag is largely a practical discussion
of moderate themes that the regime has stressed from
time to time over the last several months. In lan-
guage designed to convey an impression that the ex-
cesses of the Cultural Revolution are over, the
article reiterates the importance of reinstating
veteran administrators and technical specialists,
of strengthening organizational discipline, and of
improving the effectiveness of local governing or-
gans.
The article devotes relatively little attention
to the specifics of party rebuilding beyond re-
peatedly emphasizing the leading role Peking expects
party committees to play vis-a-vis other administra-
tive units. In this connection, however, it strongly
reaffirms the regime's condemnation of militant fac-
tionalists who have been resisting the authority of
newly formed party committees in a number of local-
ities.
Although increasing publicity has been given
this year to the formation of party committees at
the county level and below, not a single party com-
mittee at the provincial level has been established
since the ninth party congress. Red Flag's limited
treatment of the congress anniversary reflects Pe-
king's awareness that it has little cause for self-
congratulation over the slow pace of reconstruction,
and it also suggests that the regime is by no means
ready, or able, to press for a rapid completion of
the process.
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Poland: Warsaw will face increasing labor
problems over the next few years.
Plans call for more workers to enter the labor
force during the 1971-75 plan period than at any time
since the mid-1950s. As a result, unemployment,
which is now slight, may increase. Moreover, a basic
revision of wage incentives is being considered. If
accepted, it would be unpopular because wages would
become less equal and bonuses less automatic.
The government already is reducing the labor
force. The main impact thus far has been on admin-
istrative staffs, with few lay-offs of blue-collar
workers. For this reason there has been little la-
bor unrest. The government, however, has severely
curtailed the number of additional workers who can
join the work force this year, a move that could
promote unrest.
Other austerity measures promised by the regime
also will be unpopular. The 1969 curbs on investment
and construction, which affect housing and employ-
ment, are to be extended and more rigidly enforced
this year. The per capita availability of housing,
consumer goods, and services will not be increased
appreciably this year, so that the Polish consumer
will continue to be shortchanged.
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Canada Moves to Prevent Pollution of Arctic Waters
U.S S.R
U.S.S.R.
Ocean
100 nrn Pollution
Control Zone r
Beaufort
UNITED
STATES
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Canada: The government's draft legislation to
prevent pollution of the Arctic waters avoids an
outright claim to sovereignty over these waters but
in effect would grant Canada full control over the
archipelago.
The measure, which was introduced in Parlia-
ment on 8 April, provides that ships that wish to
use the Northwest Passage will have to comply with
stringent Canadian regulations. A government back-
ground statement for the press stressed, however,
that Ottawa intends to permit use of the Northwest
Passage as a waterway by ships of all states under
the new rules.
Prime Minister Trudeau also tabled legislation
extending Canada's territorial seas to 12 miles and
announced that he had informed the UN Secretary Gen-
eral that Canada was submitting a new reservation
to its acceptance of the compulsory jurisdiction of
the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This res-
ervation, Trude'au stated, is intended to guard
against any possible litigation over the new laws.
Opposition party leaders for the past several
months have been goading the government to take a
strong position on Arctic matters in view of the
activities of the US-owned icebreaker-tanker Man-
hattan in the Northwest Passage. They have not yet
commented on the draft bills.
They did, however, immediately denounce Tru-
deau as a "double-talking hypocrite" for his state-
ment on the ICJ. The deputy leader of the New Dem-
ocratic Party said that it was "nonsense" for Tru-
deau to say that Canada strongly supports the rule
of law in international affairs and in the next
breath to say that he does not intend to be bound
by it.
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Dominican Republic: Negotiations to end the
impasse between President Balaguer and the opposition
are under way, but the capital is under tight mili-
tary control.
The seven opposition parties are still threaten-
ing to boycott the elections next month and are press-
ing demands that Balaguer will find unacceptable.
Talks have begun with the President's intermediaries,
however, and the opposition is not expected to in-
sist on all of its requirements for participating in
the election.
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The military chiefs have backed Balaguer's hard
stand against disorders by imposing strict security
control over the national university while raiding
and occupying the headquarters of some of the prin-
cipal leftist labor unions. The US Embassy reports
Santo Domingo is under an undeclared curfew.
The note of cautious optimism occasioned by the
start of negotiations is somewhat tempered by the
announcement of the Dominican Revolutionary Party
(PRD) that former president and PRD leader Juan Bosch
will end his self-imposed exile and return to the
country next week. Although Bosch, overthrown by the
military in 1963, has repeatedly reneged on such plans
in the past, the fact that the announcement was made
by his party suggests his return may be more likely
this time. Bosch's appearance on the scene would
generate further uneasiness and harden the military's
distrust of the PRD.
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Rhodesia: The governing Rhodesian Front party
will easily win today's general election.
The Front is certain to win most, if not all,
of the 50 seats allotted to whites in parliament.
It is opposed by the Centre Party, which supports
a modified form of multiracialism, and the Republi-
can Alliance, which advocates complete racial segre-
gation. Ironically, the diametrically opposed posi-
tions of its two opponents have enabled the Front
to pose as middle-of-the-road, even though it is the
architect of the recently implemented republican con-
stitution that institutionalized white supremacy
rule.
The Front's opponents are contesting only the
few constituencies where they have a fair chance of
winning--the Centre Party in the prosperous white
suburbs, and the Republican Alliance in some rural
and working class areas. Between them, they may win
one or two seats. A couple of independents could
also win seats in rural areas where white farmers
are disgruntled with the government's agricultural
policy.
The Centre Party is also competing against four
small, all-black parties for the eight elective
seats allotted to Africans. Another eight African
representatives will be chosen by tribal chiefs and
members of rural councils; all of these men are
agents of the Salisbury government. Out of a total
African population of over 4.8 million, only about
8,300 are registered voters, and probably no more
than one or two thousand will even bother to go to
the polls. Consequently, no matter who wins the
contested seats, Africans will remain largely un-
represented.
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Insurgent Activity Increases
in Northeast Burma
I N D I A
Myingyan
IZU RAZZ j
PASS 1
Musc IEy hk
w ~
?" hlte Flag
Immu.rri st (ftsurgents
~~ashio
Road
Railroad
C H I N A
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NOTES
USSR:
the party central committee may meet today to
discuss plans for the Lenin Centennial on 22 April.
the plenum will pave the way for
"eventual" reshuffle of the Soviet leadership.
the meeting
1
f
our ai ing
might be delayed, pending e re overy of
top leaders--President Podgorny, Premier Kosygin,
and politburo members Suslov and Shelepin.
1 11
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Burma: The security situation has deteriorated
further in northeast Burma, where White Flag Com-
munist insurgents have been slowly increasing their
activit since February. 25X1
insurgents captured the town ot u o
on the Chinese border on 28 March. 25X1
I I a rebel force is being assembled on the Chinese
side of the border, evidently to be used to force
the withdrawal of government units from the town of
Muse. Kyuhkok, a community of about 1,000, is the
largest town the government has abandoned in 20 years.
Lesotho: Prime Minister Jonathan and leaders of
the major opposition parties have agreed to hold
discussions aimed at solving the current political
crisis. Since he seized power last January during
parliamentary elections, Jonathan has annulled the
election results, abolished the constitution, and
jailed the opposition leaders. These actions prompted
Britain, which supplied over half of the government's
operating funds, to curtail aid until the political
situation was "normalized." Jonathan presumably
sought the talks as a facesaving means to comply
with British demands.
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