CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A016300010001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 18, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
18 May 1970
State Department review completed
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No. 0118/70
18 May 19 70
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: The Djakarta conference on Cambodia con-
cluded with a call for a broader international
gathering. (Page 1)
South Vietnam: Communist units are planning to step
up military activity. (Page 2)
Dominican Republic: Balaguer's sweeping election
victory makes any significant challenge in the near
future unlikely. (Page 4)
Cuba: Castro is making a major issue of the kid-
naped Cuban fishermen. (Page 5)
Norway: The government will face another test on
21 May. (Page 6)
Laos: Military situation (Page 7)
Congo (Kinshasa) - USSR: Soviet "diplomats" expelled
(Page 7)
Chile: Strains within ruling party (Page 8)
Antigua: Workers' strike (Page 8)
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Cambodia:-.The 12-nation Djakarta conference
on Cambodia concluded yesterday with a call for a
broader international gathering at a future date.
The communique designated the foreign ministers
of Japan, Malaysia, and Indonesia to begin "urgent
consultations" toward the convening of such a con-
ference along lines suggested by the UN Secretary
General and others. The three foreign ministers
are to approach the participants of the 1954 Geneva
conference and all other interested parties. The
communique followed anticipated lines in calling
for cessation of hostilities in Cambodia forthwith
and withdrawal of all foreign forces, respect for
Cambodia's sovereignty and neutrality, and reactiva-
tion of the International Control Commission.
A suggestion by the Thai foreign minister that
the conference form its own observer team to inves-
tigate and report on developments in threatened
countries such as Cambodia was unacceptable to most
conference participants.
18 May 70
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South Vietnam: Many Communist units are plan-
ning to step up military activity over the next few
weeks.
A brief surge of enemy action is anticipated
around 19 May, which this year coincides with the
birthday of both Buddha and Ho Chi Minh. The Commu-
nists can be expected to take advantage of the 24-
hour allied cease-fire to move closer to target
areas. Rocket and mortar attacks as well as some
terrorist activity in the larger cities are likely.
Reports also indicate that the Communists are
apparently aiming for a more intense period of ac-
tion towards the end of May. This surge would be
similar to past enemy "highpoints." The brunt of
these attacks will probably come in the I and IV
corps.
On the political front, progovernment Buddhists
are threatening to disband their organization as a
means of gaining greater government support in their
dispute with the rival antiregime faction.
government has offered them too little support in
the wake of the recent seizure of their headquarters
by the An Quang militants and its subsequent recov-
ery by force of arms. As a result, the Quoc Tu
claims it will turn its national pagoda over to the
government, disband its organizational structure,
and return its leading monks to their local pagodas.
The Quoc Tu hierarchy is particularly disturbed
by the continued presence of a number of An Quang
monks on its pagoda grounds and by its inability to
oust them. The government has refused to remove
the monks and has cautioned the Quoc Tu leaders not
to use force against them.
the progov-
ernment Quoc u leadership has concluded that the
(continued)
18 May 70
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By threatening to disband, the Quoc Tu probably
hopes it can force the government to resolve the
problem in its favor. Additionally, they may be-
lieve the government would be loath to allow the
Quoc Tu--which is the official, regime-sanctioned
Buddhist church of South Vietnam--to disband,
leaving the militantly antigovernment An Quang sect
practically unchallenged to influence the country's
largely Buddhist population. The government can ill
afford to lose the allegiance of any proregime or-
ganization, even such an ineffectual one as the
Quoc Tu Buddhists, at a time when the government is
under fire from a wide variety of opposition ele-
ments.
18 May 70
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Dominican Republic: President Balaguer's
sweeping re-election victory makes it unlikely that
he will face any significant challenge in the near
future.
Nearly complete returns indicate that Balaguer
received about 56 percent of the total vote, trounc-
ing his closest competitor, Vice-President Lora, by
about 350,000 votes in the five-man race. Balaguer
ran well throughout the country, even amassing a
surprising plurality in the capital, where he was
badly beaten in 1966. Balaguer nearly duplicated
his percentage of four years ago, when he defeated
leftist Juan Bosch in a two-man race.
The peaceful balloting was in marked contrast
to the upsurge of violence that closed out the final
week of campaigning. The Communists, probably so-
bered by the heavy military patrols, made no major
effort to disrupt the voting.
The total vote, about 1.2 million, was below
the estimated turnout of 1.5 million. Juan Bosch's
major opposition Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD),
which abstained, will probably compare the results
with the figure of 1.8 million eligible voters to
suggest its continued strength. Although the PRD's
abstention certainly helped the President, his
strong showing in Santo Domingo, combined with the
fact that this election did not attract the voter in-
terest of 1966, undercuts such a stand.
Between now and the inauguration on 16 August,
Balaguer may bring some opposition figures into the
government, as he has done in the past, and further
isolate the PRD. Balaguer's popular mandate, added
to his already strong military support, makes it un-
likely that the left will have much success should
it try to oust him. The center and right, as evi-
denced by the voting, are generall satisfied with
the President's performance.
18 May 70
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Cuba: Fidel Castro is continuing to make a
major issue of the recent kidnaping of Cuban fisher-
men.
According to press reports, widespread anti-US
demonstrations demanding the return of the fishermen--
who reportedly were captured by a Miami-based exile
group, Alpha 66--began on Wednesday and continued
into the weekend. Protests have centered on the
Swiss diplomatic residences, which represent US in-
terests. The Castro regime has given its official
blessing to the demonstrations with an editorial in
the government newspaper, Granma, warning that pro-
tests "will grow further while the fishermen are
held" and that authorities will not "spill blood to
protect imperialist interests."
Castro has accused the US of complicity in the
kidnaping and has stated that he holds the US respon-
sible for the lives of the fishermen. His reaction
to his first kidnaping problem demonstrates his con-
cern over the vulnerability of the extensive Cuban
fishing fleet to exile attacks. It may also serve
as an opportune diversion from the 1970 sugar har-
vest, which will not meet his goal.
18 May 70
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Norway: The government, which has had diffi-
culty in resisting recent attacks by the opposition
Labor Party on several issues, will face yet another
test on 21 May.
At that time the government will have to ex-
plain to parliament, where it has a two-vote major-
ity, what it has done! in response to a unanimous
resolution that it work in NATO and bilaterally to
end arms supplies to Greece. The principal embar-
rassment for the Center-Right government is that one
of the coalition parties, the Liberals, has voted
by a two-thirds majority for the immediate expulsion
of Greece from NATO, even though there is no NATO
provision for such action. Although this resolution
is not binding on Liberal members of parliament.,
their position will be made no easier by the fact
that the opposition Labor Party intends to introduce
the verbatim text of the Liberal resolution in par-
liament.
Coalition members are trying urgently to find
some kind of compromise proposal that will satisfy
all concerned. In any case, they have at their
disposal a number of procedural devices, such as
referring the resolution to committee. The US Em-
bassy in Oslo thinks it probable, nevertheless, that
parliament will give the government some sterner
guidelines for bringing pressure on the Greek regime
in NATO and elsewhere.
The burden of speaking for the government will
fall on Foreign Minister Lyng, who earlier had at-
tempted to postpone the debate beyond NATO's minis-
terial meeting on 26-27 May. The performance will
be Lyng's swan song; he retires the following day.
His successor is expected to be Sven Stray, who has
been Conservative Party parliamentary leader. He
is pro-NATO and pro-US.
Lyng's departure will set off a series of per-
sonnel changes in the government. Most of these
will stem from an effort by some coalition parties
to reinvigorate their leaderships.
18 May 70
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Laos: Communist units continue to deploy for
additional attacks in the Bolovens Plateau area.
Villagers report that fresh enemy troops have moved
near Lao Ngam and Souvannakhili off the western edge
of the plateau. In the north, Communist troops
drove Meo guerrillas from positions a few miles
north of Sam Thong in the first significant counter-
attack in weeks. The enemy is now within rocket
range of Long Tieng again.
Congo (Kinshasa) - USSR: The expulsion of four
Soviet Embassy personnel., described as "influential
diplomats," has been publicized in the Kinshasa
press with charges that the Soviets were propagan-
dizing students and operating an extensive espionage
network. It has not been-confirmed so far that the
four are among the seven Soviets with official diplo-
matic status, and Kinshasa authorities may be moving
primarily to reduce the large embassy staff. On the
other hand, press accounts may be exaggerating the
trespasses for domestic political purposes. The first
congress of President Mobutu's official party since
its formation in 1967 is convening this week, and
a keynote of vigilance against foreign subversion
may set the stage for a tightening of party disci-
pline or a shakeup of government personnel.
(continued)
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Chile: Strains within President Frei's Chris-
tian Democratic Party (PDC) resurfaced during the
election of new leadership in the Chamber of Deputies
last week.. Presidential candidate Radomiro Tomic
refused to permit PDC legislators to strike a deal
with conservative groups that would have set up a
combined PDC-Radical leadership as President Frei
desired. Instead, the new leaders are a leftist
Radical, a Communist, and a Socialist. Tomic may
hope that by refusing to cooperate with conserva-
tives he has put himself in a stronger position to
get leftist congressional votes if no presidential
candidate gets a majority in the September election.
In such a case, Congress must make the final choice
between the top two, and Tomic now believes he has a
good chance of running second in the popular elec-
tion to the conservative candidate, Jorge Alessandri.
Antigua: The current politically inspired
workers' strike could expand into a serious test for
the administration. Premier Bird, who has dominated
the island's politics for two decades, faces what
will probably be a close election this year and has
taken a hard line against the strikers. His oppo-
nents, with growing labor support, have gradually
escalated what was a minor civil service dispute
into a more widespread walkout. If the government-
labor impasse continues, a general strike could de-
velop. Antigua was the site of labor violence in
1968 that prompted the British to send warships to
the area; the country has only a 350-man defense
force.
18 May 70
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