CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A016700010001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 11, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
11 July 1970
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No. 0165/70
11 July 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: The lull in major Communist military ac-
tions continues . (Page 1)
North Vietnam - Laos: The Communists may be engaged
in new diplomatic maneuvering on Laos. (Page 2)
Romania: Ceausescu has given the authoritative Ro-
manian interpretation of the new treaty with the
USSR. (Page 3)
Chile: Alessandri was probably the only beneficiary
of the inconclusive strike. (Page 6)
Ecuador: President Velasco may soon make cabinet
changes. (Page 7)
Communist China: US prisoner released (Page 8)
Iceland: Prime Minister's death (Page 8)
Arms Control: Seabeds treaty (Page 9)
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Cambodia: Current Situation
WreNoy
Kam n
Chhna
~Irey Ven
Communist-controlled location
Communist controlled
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Cambodia: The lull in major Communist mili-
tary actions continues, but there are indications
the enemy intends to increase attacks in several
areas.
The provincial capitals of Kompong Thom, Kom-
pong Speu, Svay Rieng, and Siem Reap, as well as
the Cambodian Army's major munitions depot at Lovek
were shelled yesterday, but damage appears to have
been light. The shelling of Lovek may be the har-
binger of stronger ground attacks.
The Communists may be looking for a favorable
opportunity to shake the growing confidence of
South Vietnamese forces by inflicting heavy losses
on them in a major battle. The onset of the mon-
soon rains, which is beginning to hinder motor
transport and to reduce the air support available
to South Vietnamese forces, may encourage the en-
emy to fight more aggressively.
Third Country Assistance
Vice President Ky may visit Bangkok next week
to discuss coordination of Thai and South Vietnam-
ese air operations in Cambodia. Ky has already
visited Phnom Penh to help coordinate military
planning with the Cambodians. At that time he
made promises that caused some embarrassment in
Saigon. It is not clear whether Thieu has author-
ized Ky's impending visit to Bangkok.
Ky has been chief of the South Vietnamese Air
Force and could probably make a substantial contri-
bution to the discussions, if he kept his free-
wheeling tendencies in check. In order to get the
Thais to do more in Cambodia, however, he probably
will make promises that could be difficult for
Saigon to keep.
11 Jul 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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North Vietnam - Laos: The Communists may be
engaged in new diplomatic maneuvering on Laos.
Consultations involving Soviet officials,
Polish International Control Commission (ICC) rep-
resentatives, and the Lao Patriotic Front appar-
ently have been under way in Hanoi since 4 July.
The Soviets are represented by Deputy Foreign Min-
ister Firyubin, who flew unannounced to Hanoi on
4 July. This is Firyubin's second unpublicized
trip to Hanoi this year. The first, in late Febru-
ary, may have been concerned in part with a new
Communist peace proposal for Laos, which was is-
sued on 6 March.
Several developments in the past few days sug-
gest that Hanoi may want to move ahead along the
lines of that proposal. On 7 July the Poles sud-
denly agreed to an ICC offer to help "facilitate"
talks between the two Lao factions.
Whatever is brewing in Hanoi may be at least
partially in response to Souvanna Phouma's offer to
the Pathet Lao in late June to open talks in Com-
munist territory with the other Laotian factions.
The Communists might, for example, suggest an ICC
guarantee of Souvanna's security in Khang Khay,
the site he proposed for such talks. Hanoi has in-
sisted that a full bombing halt must precede any
negotiations, and will probably continue to insist
on this as the price for serious political bargain-
ing.
The North Vietnamese may see this as an op-
portune time to press the bombing issue further
with Souvanna. They might reason that their recent
territorial gains in southern Laos and the threat
of further strong Communist military pressures
have put them in a be ter Position than before to
extract concessions.
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Romania: Party and state leader Ceausescu has
emerged from his self-imposed absence from public
view during Soviet Premier Kosygin's visit early
this week to give the authoritative Romanian inter-
pretation of the new 20-year friendship Lreaty with
the USSR.
Speaking to a Central Committee plenum on 9
July, Ceausescu emphatically confirmed that Romania
will continue on its independent course. Ceausescu
did not mention the controversial mutual defense
clause, but instead defended each party's right to
form its own policy, as if to reassure his audience
that Romania would not be dragged into any Soviet
confrontation with Communist China. To underline
his point, he spoke in appreciative tones of the
reception given a recent Romanian delegation by Mao
Tse-tung and other Chinese leaders.
Describing the Romanian party's "permanent
preoccupation" with improving relations among all
socialist countries, Ceausescu implicitly called
on the two Communist giants to resolve their quar-
rel and demanded a "large and free" debate within
the socialist movement.
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Chile: Conservative presidential candidate
Jorge Alessandri was probably the only beneficiary
of the inconclusive strike called against the Frei
government on 8 July by the Communists.
The usually astute Communist Party leadership
stumbled when it made a political issue of the strike
call. The spotty response from the union movement
that the Marxists claim to lead was damaging to them
and to their coalition candidate, Salvador Allende.
It could stem the recent upturn in Allende's for-
tunes in the presidential campaign.
The government, however, did not profit from
this miscalculation. In disturbances the same day,
it was embarrassed by the third student death in
recent weeks and by the arrest of other students on
university premises many Chileans consider "auton-
omous." Both incidents are blamed on the police
and will help the leftists depict the administration
as repressive.
The climate of continuing violence, although
not yet of major proportions, is unusual and un-
settling in Chile. Ex-president Alessandri stands
to gain the most from it; he is carefully building
an image of authority and has adroitly handled the
issue in recent weeks.
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Ecuador: President Velasco may soon make the
first cabinet changes since he took "supreme power"
last month.
When he resigned last week, the head of the
National Planning Board leaked to the press that he
had charged the ministers of defense and industry
with misconduct in approving contracts. Although
the cabinet rejected the charges, Velasco may decide
that it is politically expedient to replace the
minister of industry. Defense Minister Acosta, how-
ever, has weathered other charges of graft, and his
key role in keeping the military behind Velasco af-
fords him strong protection.
The minister of agriculture may also resign,
according to the press, in pique over being bypassed
when new taxes on banana shipments were decreed.
Most of Velasco's many critics still have not
moved into open opposition to his assumption of
extraconstitutional economic and political power.
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NOTES
Communist China: Peking's release of Bishop
Walsh is probably designed in large part to cover
China's embarrassment over the suicide last April
of another US prisoner, Hugh Redmond, which was also
announced yesterday. Walsh still had ten years to
serve of a 20-year sentence for "espionage," and his
release is one of the rare cases in which the Chinese
have commuted a previously specified sentence for a
foreign prisoner. Although the implications for cur-
rent Sino-US relations are not clear, the abrupt
freeing of the bishop brings to an end a long-stand-
ing source of contention between Washington and Pe-
king. Nevertheless, the move probably will not af-
fect the s atus of the four remaining Americans held
in China.
Iceland: The death of Prime Minister Benedikts-
son increases the possibility of early national elec-
tions, perhaps by fall. Continuation of the 11-year
coalition government was already under review by the
junior partner Social Democrats following their poor
showing in local elections last May. For the pres-
ent, the deputy chief of Benediktsson's Independence
(conservative) Party and minister of justice and in-
dustry, Johann Hafstein has been charged with form-
ing a new government.
(continued)
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Arms Control: The Argentine delegate at Geneva
has indicated t at his country is "extremely anxious
to go to bat for the seabeds treaty with the other
Latin Americans" at the UN General Assembly. The
Argentines, however, are still pressing for a few
changes in the text of the US-Soviet draft treaty,
which puts limits on the use of the seabeds for mili-
tary purposes. Argentine acceptance of the treaty
would go far toward countering the attitude of Bra-
zil, which again this week voiced strong objections.
If Argentina should, however, join Brazil in opposi-
tion to the treaty, the Latin Americans--already
aroused by US and Soviet views on other maritime is-
sues--may as a bloc withhold approval of the treaty.
11 Jul 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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