CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A016700050001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 16, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
16 July 19 70
DIA review(s) completed.
State Department review completed
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No. 0169/70
16 July 19 70
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: Communist forces still have not been dis-
lodged from Kirirom. (Page 1)
North Vietnam: Press accounts have exaggerated Hanoi's
interest in negotiations with the US. (Page 2)
South Vietnam: The government is likely to do fairly
well in the elections on 30 August. (Page 3)
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UN - South Africa: An early meeting of the Security
Counc.i on arms sales is in prospect. (Page 6)
Finland: A new cabinet was finally installed yester- 25X1
day. (Page 7)
Cuba - Latin America: Uruguayan business interests
may attempt sales to Cuba similar to Chile's. (Page 10)
Chile: Candidate Allende promises to join Castro in the
'Lain American revolution." (Page 11)
Syria: No agreement on terms for an early reopening
of Tapline. (Page 12)
Ghana: Accra's Western creditors have agreed on a
proposal for debt payments. (Page 13)
Ceylon: The new government has moved to implement
its leftist foreign policy. (Page 14)
USSR-Mauritius: The two countries have reached an
agreement on fishing cooperation. (Page 15)
Vietnam-Cambodia: Communist attacks planned (Page 16)
Yugoslavia: Development plan (Page 16)
Netherlands Antilles: Coalition government (Page 17)
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Cambodia: Communist forces still have not
been dislodged from Kirirom.
Enemy troops evidently were tenaciously hold-
ing on to their positions on the plateau in the cen-
ter of the resort town, as the fighting there en-
tered its fifth day. Yesterday, however, two gov-
ernment relief battalions gained a foothold on the
plateau, despite intensive Communist mortar fire.
Phnom Penh has sent a fifth battalion of reinforce-
ments to join in the effort to retake the town.
No other significant Communist actions were
reported, but a number of skirmishes occurred in
widely scattered areas.
In the Countryside
The US Embassy reports that 1,000 Vietnamese
villagers from the west bank of the Tonle Sap Lake
in Pursat Province have turned themselves over to
government authorities near Kompong Thom, after they
refused to join the Communists. Cambodian officials
on the scene have requested that Phnom Penh evacuate
the villagers to the capital. The sizable Vietnam-
ese community in the Tonle Sap area is a source of
potential manpower to the Communists, but this de-
velopment indicates they are having some trouble
working with these people.
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North Vietnam: Recent press accounts evidently
have exaggerated Hanoi's interest in meaningful ne-
gotiations with the US at this time.
The press accounts claim that Soviet Deputy
Foreign Minister Firyubin told Indian officials that
the North Vietnamese were interested in a Geneva-
type conference. Hanoi radio has denied these re-
ports, and official contacts of the US Embassy in
New Delhi, indicate that Firyubin merely reiterated
the standard Communist position that, if the US com-
mitted itself to withdraw from Indochina on a given
timetable, Hanoi might relax its opposition to a
conference. Firyubin's comments in fact tend to
confirm other indications that unless the US makes
substantial concessions, Hanoi is not interested at
the moment in opening any new talks with Washington.
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South Vietnam: The newly announced line-up of
candidates forthe Senate indicates that the govern-
ment is likely to do fairly well in the elections
on 30 August.
With 30 of the 60 Senate seats up for election,
18 slates of 10 candidates each have filed to run.
Under the South Vietnamese constitutional system,
candidates do not run as individuals, and the 30
candidates belonging to the three lists getting the
most votes will win seats.
The slate with the strongest chance for elec-
tion appears to be the one headed by the present
chairman of the Upper the-one
Nguyen Van Huyen, and
including former prime minister Tran Van Huong<
Although these men and their associates are not
controlled by the government, President Thieu re-
spects them as responsible independents and would
welcome their election. Another strong slate, more
closely tied to the government, is headed by Sena-
tor Huynh Van Cao and is being backed by the Viet-
namese Confederation of Labor.
Of the 18 slates, four are unambiguously oppo-
sitionist. The strongest of these is headed by Vu
Van Mau and is backed by a relatively moderate group
within the militant An Quang Buddhist faction. Sen-
ator Don, who once aspired to become the chief
spokesman of the opposition, has withdrawn from the
race, and this will probably be interpreted as an
indication of government power.
The personal prestige of the candidates is
often of significantly greater importance than the
issues in attracting votes in South Vietnamese elec-
tions, and an initial reading suggests that govern-
ment-supported slates indeed will do well. Many
local government officials, particularly at the
district level, are also likely to have an appreci-
able progovernment influence among villagers going
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to the polls even without resorting to ballot box
stuffing.
A number of slates have included candidates
from many major voting groups in an effort to broaden
their appeal. This will tend to divide the support
for some of the more prestigious candidates and makes
the outcome of the election somewhat uncertain.
.16 Jul 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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UN - South Africa: An early meeting of the
Security Council on the imbroglio over arms sales
to South Africa is in prospect.
The Africans yesterday requested such a meeting,
and preliminary soundings by the Nicaraguan repre-
sentative, president of the Council during July, in-
dicate that a session could be convened tomorrow
afternoon. The request is formally based on the
recommendation of the UN Apartheid Committee that
the Council strengthen its 1963 resolution that
called for an embargo on arms sales and shipments
to South Africa.
The Africans have focused increasing attention
since early this year on arms shipments to South
Africa. The appeal to the Security Council is
clearly designed to head off London's proposal to
reverse the Labor government's compliance with the
embargo. However, the decision to request an imme-
diate Council meeting reportedly was not reached
easily at an African caucus on Monday. Most French-
speaking African members preferred to delay until
the British make a firm statement on their policy.
British and Finnish delegates believe that the
Africans, at least for now, would settle for a Coun-
cil resolution reaffirming the 1963 statements with-
out citing any specific UN member as a supplier. If
this tactic fails, however, the Africans may then
push for a resolution condemning the UK.
The raucous atmosphere prevailing in New York
as the World Youth Assembly moves toward its conclu-
sion on Saturday is hardly a favorable one for a
Council meeting on the South African issue. The
English-speaking African representatives at the UN
want to link the two meetings, hoping to put added
pressure on the UK. The British delegation has
asked the US to help delay the Council session until
after the government announces its policy in the
House of Commons early next week.
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Finland: A new cabinet under Prime Minister Ahti
Karjalai~`nen was finally installed yesterday, ending
four months of interparty wrangling and clearing the
way for President Kekkonen's visits to Moscow and
Washington.
A major obstacle to the replacement of the pre-
vious stopgap, nonpartisan cabinet was removed last
week when Karjalainen's Center Party decided to con-
tinue its participation with the Social Democrats and
Communists in another center-left coalition similar
to those that have dominated Finnish politics since
1966. Many party members had opposed this course on
grounds that cooperation with the leftist parties
had caused the party's sharp losses in the elections
last March. Strong pressure from Kekkonen, however,
brought the dissidents to heel. `The Liberal and
Swedish Peoples' parties are also included in the gov-
ernment, leaving only the Conservative and Rural par-
ties--the two big election gainers--in the opposition.
The new government is likely to follow lines set
by earlier center-left governments. In foreign af-
fairs, Karjalainen will adhere closely to Finland's
well-established policy of neutrality and close re-
lations with the USSR. He is also expected to hold
to the traditional Finnish position of nonrecognition
of divided states, although pressure from the left
for recognizing North Vietnam and East Germany is ex-
pected to increase. Finnish endeavors on behalf of
a conference on European security will continue.
There may be sharp differences over domestic
economic policy as a result of the division of respon-
sibilities between the Socialist and non-Socialist
parties.
16 Jul 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Cuba - Latin America: Chile's recent re-estab-
lishment of commercia ties with Cuba has apparently
prompted Uruguayan business interests to attempt
similar sales.
On 2 July, Uruguayan rice producers held out
the possibility of regularizing trade with Havana
if the Cubans would purchase 40,000-60,000 tons of
rice from Uruguay's burgeoning surplus. This amount
would be about equal to Uruguay's total rice exports
from July 1969 to March 1970. It would, if consum-
mated, break the trade embargo between the two coun-
tries in effect since the 1964 OAS sanctions against
Cuba. The Uruguayans are willing to send representa-
tives to Havana to work out details of the deal.
Although some of Cuba's harshest propaganda has
been directed against the Uruguayan Government, Ha-
vana may take advantage of the offer--if commercially
satisfactory--because of its inherent political pos-
sibilities. Fidel Castro would find it hard to pass
up an opportunity to undercut the OAS sanctions, par-
ticularly if the action would tempt other countries,
such as Peru and Ecuador, to do the same.
The Cuban delegation now in Chile is negotia-
ting for long-term contracts for agricultural sup-
plies. In addition, a 9,400-ton Cuban merchant ship
is scheduled to arrive in Chile late this month to
load a partial shipment of foodstuffs. This will be
the second Cuban ship to call at a Chilean port
since trade ties were restored earlier this year.
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Chile: Marxist presidential candidate Salvador
Allende promises that his government would join Fidel
Castro to launch the "Latin American revolution."
In recent speeches Allende has also called
"American imperialism" the one enemy of Latin America
and said his government would respect the principle
of nonintervention only to the extent that it judged~~
other governments "reflect the will of the majority."
He has also reiterated his promise to establish re-
lations with all countries, specifically including
Cuba, Communist China, East Germany, and North Viet-
nam.
As his fourth presidential campaign has gained
momentum, Allende has made less effort to play down
his Marxist views. In addition, he has moved from
bland generalities to specifics with "forty measures"
to be taken immediately by his government. These
are bread and butter promises with much popular
appeal.
Allende's opposition in the three-way presiden-
tial race is divided between a conservative and the
leftist candidate of the Christian Democratic govern-
ment. Allende may believe that a strong pitch to
the leftist sentiments of Chileans, many of whom are
dissatisfied with the present government, can pro-
vide him a winnin edge with the voters on 4 Septem-
ber.
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Syria: Representatives of the Trans-Arabian
pipeline (Tapline) and Syrian authorities apparently
have been unable to agree on terms for an early re-
opening.
Tapline normally carries about 500,000 barrels
per day (bpd) of Saudi Arabian crude oil to ports
in the Mediterranean. It has been shut down since
early May when it was ruptured in Syria by a-bull-
dozer, possibly by accident. Syria has prohibited
repairs unless an advance payment of $50 million
is made and the company agrees to higher transit
fees. A counteroffer of $5 million has been re-
jected.
Despite the economic advantages that the use
of Tapline would bring, the owners consider the
Syrian demands to be "out of the ball park" and
probably will not concede even though they plan to
resume discussions. It is also unlikely that Syria
will give much ground,
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Ghana: Accra's Western creditors have agreed
on a proposal for medium-term debt payments over
the next two years.
Relief would be given for one half of the prin-
cipal and interest on medium-term debt that falls
due between July 1970 and June 1972. Creditor coun-
tries, at their option, would provide refinancing at
concessional interest rates or allow a 10-year de-
ferment. Another conference is to be convened within
two years to review Ghana's debt problem over a
longer term.
The Ghanaian delegation to the debt relief talks
in London apparently concluded that the proposal was
the best it could negotiate at this time. Its leader,
Finance Minister Mensah, promised to push for early
approval of the accord by Accra. It remains to be
seen, however, whether the Busia regime will accept
the agreement; it may in fact react strongly against
it. Mensah's friendly, low-key stance is in sharp
contrast to the Ghanaian press, which has attacked
the accord as a sellout to European interests. One
paper has demanded that the government unilaterally
declare a grace period of 10-15 years and that all
foreign banks be nationalized in anticipation of any
counteraction to the moratorium.
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Ceylon: The new government has taken several
steps to implement its leftist foreign policy.
This week the government officially announced
its full diplomatic recognition of North Korea and
North Vietnam; it accorded similar status to East
Germany last month. Colombo has promised to recog-
nize the Provisional Revolutionary Government of
South Vietnam and "Foreign Minister" Madame Binh is
scheduled to visit Ceylon later this month. Prime
Minister Bandaranaike so far has given no indication
of her intentions toward Sihanouk's Cambodian govern-
ment-in-exile other than her promise not to recognize
the Lon Nol government.
Ceylon last week formally requested the US to
terminate its Peace Corps program on the island.. A
government press release on 14 July said the Asian
Foundation should end its activities by 31 October.
The government also has canceled a contract with the
French Institute of Petroleum and announced it will
seek help from socialist countries for joint oil
prospecting.
Despite its leftist-oriented foreign policy,
the new government still hopes for continued West-
ern economic aid. The Prime Minister and her Trot-
skyite finance minister were cordial in meetings
with the US ambassador earlier this month, and rec-
ognition of the three Communist nations and the ter-
mination of Western programs were not accompanied
by vituperative denunciations of the West character-
istic of the earlier Bandaranaike government of 1960
to 1965.
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USSR-Mauritius: On 14 July the two countries
announced the broad outline of an agreement on fishing
cooperation.
According to the joint communique, Mauritius
will permit Soviet fishing vessels to use its harbor
facilities under the same conditions as other coun-
tries. In addition, it has agreed in principle to
give landing rights to Aeroflot, the Soviet airline,
to permit the transfer of Soviet fishing crews to
and from Mauritius. In return, the USSR will pro-
vide technical assistance for the development of
Mauritian marine fisheries. The three-year arrange-
ment may be terminated by either party on six months'
notice.
In August 1969, Moscow sought similar privileges
in return for a fishing trawler and assistance for
the Mauritian fishing industry. Although the recent
communique did not mention either the trawler or
economic aid, earlier reports of the discussions
indicated that Mauritius was seeking as much as $5
million in credit for its fishing industry-.1
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Vietnam-Cambodia: The Communists may be plan-
ning a series of attacks to take place around 20
July, the anniversary of the signing of the Geneva
accords. F_ I
ecause tew communist main torce units ere are
near prime targets, attacks that take place are
likely to be made chiefly for their psychological
impact. The evidence with regard to Cambodia is
more tenuous, but Communist reconnaissance units in
southeastern Cambodia have recently become active,
and there have been some enemy troop movements in
this area. The Communists may intend to carry out
coordinated actions on both sides of the border.
Yugoslavia: The government has announced pro-
visional plans to invest the equivalent of $240 mil-
lion in 1971-75 in the economic development of Kos-
ovo, Yugoslavia's most backward region. This is
part of a government plan announced in April to
accelerate development. of all economically under-
developed areas of the country. Kosovo is to get
special attention because the area, which has ex-
perienced serious unrest, has the nation's lowest
per capita income and suffers from chronic unemploy-
ment, especially among the large--and vocal--Alba-
nian population. The new economic aid plan will in-
crease annual government assistance to this area by
approximately 17 percent above the level of 1968-69
and will contribute to the planned 14-percent annual
increase in the gross product of Kosovo during 1971-
75. F7 I
(continued)
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Netherlands Antilles: The coalition government
of Minister-President Ernesto Petronia has failed in
its efforts to include representatives of all polit-
ical parties in the new cabinet. The governmental
reorganization announced on 13 July was necessitated
by the recent death of Labor Minister Amador Nita.
Nita was the only leader of the leftist Workers Front
Party who had been willing to serve in the government
formed last December following elections in which no
party received a majority. The Dutch islands have
been peaceful since the riots of May 1969, and re-
cent political developments do not appear I I
to consti-
tute a security threat.
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