CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017200010001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 23, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 21, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
45
21 September 1970
State Department review completed
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No. 0226/70
21 September 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JORDAN: Syrian intervention in the fighting may
have dangerously escalated the situation. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: The government's offensive northward to
Kompong Thom is still stalled. (Page 3)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Peace advocates again are challeng-
ing the government. (Page 5)
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: The Arab Air Transport
Federation is trying to thwart international com-
munity action to deal with hijacking. (Page 7)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA - WEST GERMANY: Prague has again
indicated its interest in. early political negoti-
ations with Bonn. (Page 8)
INDIA: The victory of the ruling Congress Party
in Kerala strengthens both the party and Mrs.
Gandhi. (Page 10)
PERU: A US mining company plans to abandon its
undeveloped copper concession. (Page 12)
IAEA-USSR: Compromise endorsed (Page 13)
NATO-GREECE: Arms report (Page 13)
BOLIVIA: Protests (Page 14)
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JORDAN: Current Situation
rrbiti ?
Syrian-Jordanin
tank battle
Tel Aviv
Yafo
1
6
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}Zarga
*AMMAN
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C JORDAN: Syrian intervention in the fighting
may have dangerously escalated the situation.
Field Marshal Majali said that a Syrian armored
brigade crossed the Jordanian border at Ramtha early
Sunday. He said Jordanian armor pushed the brigade
back across the border after knocking out some 30
Syrian tanks. Jordan promptly complained to the
Arab League; Syrian head of state Atasi has denied
the action, however, calling the battle "fictitious."
Some 15 hours after the initial attack south, Syrian
forces made a second push toward Irbid. Fighting
was still going on there as of last night.
Jordanians have apparently used Hunter aircraft in
the fighting. According to press reports, some of
the Syrian tank crews are wearing the uniforms of
the Palestine Liberation Army, the regular force of
the Palestine Liberation Organization
The Iraqis, meanwhile, have so far shown no
disposition to get involved in the fighting.
one ragi
brigade has been deployed west o Mafraq as a defen-
sive measure, probably against the Syrians.
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Much of Amman, meanwhile, seems to be under
army control. The curfew has been lifted in some
parts of the city, and people are being seen on the
streets. The army is using tanks against snipers,
however, and heavy fighting continues in the area
of several refugee camps. A cease-fire arranged
through Egyptian mediation halted the fighting in
Amman briefly Saturday, but fell apart almost at
once.
The Egyptians are apparently continuing their
efforts to bring calm to Jordan. They have told US
officials that they contacted Syrian President Atasi
and informed him that Egypt, did not agree with Syr-
ian intervention; the Syrians, however, merely
denied that they had intervened. In addition, the
Libyans have proposed the creation of a joint
Libyan-Algerian buffer force to prevent future
clashes between the army and the commandos. Jordan
has requested an emergency meeting of the Arab
League council at the foreign minister level, hope-
fully to convene on Tuesday night. The League's
Secretariat has passed the request to the Arab for-
eign ministers.
There has as yet been no word on the where-
abouts or condition of the hostages. Negotiations
for their release continue; according to Red Cross
representatives in Beirut, the Popular Front for
the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) wants a formal
US or four-power guarantee that Israel will release
a certain number of fedayeen it now holds. The
representatives believe that the release of the
hostages could quickly follow such a guarantee,
along with agreements between th and Israel
on the prisoners to be released.
21 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Communist forces are continuing
to frustrate efforts by the government to resume
its multibattalion offensive northward to Kompong
Thom.
The Cambodian Army task force, which has
been stalled for more than a week on Route 6 be-
tween Skoun and the Communist-held village of
Tang Kouk, had planned to renew its northward
drive on 19 September. The main column of the
task force received several mortar attacks on
18 September, however, and the Communists followed
up these harassing actions with a limited ground
attack during the pre-dawn hours of the 19th.
This action occurred about 13 miles north of
Skoun and cost the government one killed and 20
wounded. The enemy reportedly lost 20 killed.
The column received.at least two additional mortar
attacks later on the 19th, and enemy pressure has
apparently continued throughout the weekend.
If the task force, which has now swelled to
16 battalions, is able to break through Communist
resistance in this area, it will probably be in
for even heavier pressure as it approaches its
first major objective--Tang Kouk.
21 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Current Situation
LAOS
THAILAND
r....~ tang K Ic
Chnongd.
Communist counterattacks~?--' rek,.~t k
stall government advance l( o^n j
6 F gC
Cham~
Kompong?Som?
(Sihanoukville)
/.
Cambodia
0 am pot
o Principal city (10,000 or over)
Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
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U T H
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SOUTH VIETNAM: Peace advocates are again
moving to challenge the government.
A prominent southern member of the opposition
in the Lower House of the National Assembly, Ngo
Cong Duc, has called for a provisional government
to organize elections in an effort to get a peace
settlement. Duc is editor of the widely read
newspaper Tin Sang, and he is personally respected
by many of 1 Ts more moderate Assembly colleagues
who disagree with his extreme positions. Accord-
ingly, his proposals, which he offered as he de-
parted for Europe, are being widely publicized
and are likely to trouble the government.
In addition, a delegation of the militant An
Quang Buddhists has been sent to a peace conference
to be held in Kyoto, Japan
So far, the Saigon government has maintained
a hard line against independent peace proposals,
and it has generally succeeded in discouraging
would-be peace proponents, such as retiring Senator
Don, from appealing to the widespread war weariness
that exists in South Vietnam. The success of the
An Quang - backed slate in the recent Senate elec-
tions, however, may have encouraged both Duc and
the An Quang to test the government's firmness
again.
In the first official reaction to Duc's pro-
posal, a government television commentator said
its advocates "have unmasked themselves as Commu-
nist agents." Some moderate politicians have also
condemned Duc's proposal as beneficial only to the
Communists. If the government takes harsh meas-
ures toward Duc, new frictions could arise between
the regime and the Assembly.
(continued)
21 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Meanwhile, President Thieu continues to give
evidence of his concern that peace sentiment may
undermine the war effort. In an apparent effort
to help head off more demands for an early peace,
Thieu promised at a Navy Day ceremony in Saigon
that peace can be won in two or three years, even
if the Communists refuse to negotiate a settlement.
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INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: The Arab Air Transport
Federation is continuing its attempt to thwart in-
ternational community action to deal with the hi-
jacking crisis.
The federation--composed of the generally
state-owned airline companies of all Arab League
nations except Morocco--met in special session
Wednesdayl plan of action to
counter ally aecision to impose an air services boy-
cott on a nation harboring hijackers. The plan
could entail the seizure of the local assets of
foreign airlines supporting a sanctions effort as
well as refusal of alternative routes through Arab
territory to them. The federation's communiqu6 em-
phasized the international community's failure to
apply sanctions following the Israeli raid on Bei-
rut's airport and referred to "Zionist" propaganda
aimed at influencing aviation organizations to boy-
cott Arab airports and airlines.
The strong US presentation at Friday's special
meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organ-
ization (ICAO) Council apparently did not win many
converts to the US approach. A number of Western
nations continue to express reservations over the
possibility of rapid, concerted action in the form
of a multilateral boycott, whether based on an ICAO
Council resolution or a convention to be drafted
by the ICAO legal committee. Belgium, Italy, and
Australia have noted the adverse effect the loss
of air routes to and through the Arab lands would
have on the economic prospects of Sabena, Alitalia,
and Qantas.
Canada appears to have more Western support
for its initiative, which was also offered at the
Friday council session. Ottawa would have ICAO
member states amend their bilateral air agreements
to require severe penalties for aerial pirates, a
time-consuming process that would diminish consid-
erably the likelihood of a multilateral boycott.
The council resumes its deliberations on 29 Septem-
ber.
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA - WEST GERMANY: Prague has un-
derscored its interest in early political negotia-
tions with Bonn by publicly asserting that official
talks are scheduled to begin in October.
The main party daily Rude Pravo cited unnamed
sources in Bonn to support the claim and indicated
that the West German Government had completed neces-
sary preparations. Although West German sources in
Prague have said that no official contacts have yet
been established, there are signs that either Prague
or Bonn intends to take the initiative in the near
future on the issue of opening formal talks.
According to Rude Pravo, the negotiations should
proceed smoothly because ere are no territorial
problems between the two countries and because the
West German Government has already indicated that
it was willing to nullify the 1938 Munich Agreement
under which Hitler carved up Czechoslovakia. The
paper did not mention that this West German offer
was conditional, but did caution that Egon Franke,
Bonn's minister for all-German affairs, had publicly
warned that there were numerous practical and legal
problems to be resolved prior to such nullification.
The US Embassy in Prague has noted that until
recently the East Germans had succeeded in blocking
a Czechoslovak settlement with West Germany. That
this roadblock has now been overcome may be implicit
in Rude Pravo's confident statement about the course
of Prague prospective negotiations and its predic-
tion that the "greatest difficulties" should be ex-
pected in normalizing relations between West Germany
and East Germany. In effect, Prague has now jet-
tisoned East Germany as a silent negotiating partner
and has left Pankow to its own devices. In fact,
Rude Pravo seems to have recommended that East Ger-
many look to the recent Soviet - West German nonag-
gression pact for guidance concerning relations be-
tween the two German states.
(continued)
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Ultimately, any Prague-Bonn negotiations could
lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations,
but this is not an immediate Czechoslovak goal.
The trade missions of the two governments, which
have semiconsular status, are enough for the cau-
tious Husak regime at present. Even if the talks
begin next month as Prague claims, they probably
will be lengthy and are unlikely to make significant
headway before Poland has concluded its accord with
West Germany, probably in November.
21 Sep 70 Central i,itel'igence Buletin 9
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INDIA: Mrs. Gandhi's winning strategy in the
Kerala elections on 17 September strengthens her
party for other possible early electoral tests and
her own position within the ruling Congress Party.
Final returns in the Kerala poll give the
ruling Congress Party 32 of the 134 seats in the
state legislature. Before the resignation of the
last coalition government in Kerala in June 1970,
the ruling Congress Party had held only six seats.
In addition to her own party's striking success,
Mrs. Gandhi's electoral allies--including the pro-
Moscow Communist Party of India (CPI)--won enough
seats so that a coalition government with a slim
majority can be created.
In the fragmented politics of Kerala, the
ruling Congress Party and its allies were opposed
by two other electoral coalitions: one on the left
dominated by the militant Communist Party of India/
Marxist (CPM), and another on the right, which in-
cluded the organization Congress Party--the faction
of the once united Congress Party that split with
Mrs. Gandhi over party politics in 1969. The CPM
lost seats in the election, and the right-wing
coalition also fared badly.
The results of the election in Kerala could
encourage Mrs. Gandhi to examine the possibility
of calling early elections in West Bengal, a state
that has been under direct rule from New Delhi
since last March and one where political forces
somewhat similar to those in Kerala are at work.
Presumably, some form of electoral agreement with
the CPI and other left-of-center parties--as in
Kerala--would be attempted. It seems considerably
less likely that Mrs. Gandhi, on the basis of the
Kerala results alone, would move toward calling
early national elections, which are not scheduled
until 1972.
(continued)
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The effect of the Kerala poll could have
repercussions not only in other states but also
in the national legislature. The victory of the
ruling Congress Party is of such magnitude as
possibly to stimulate defections from other parties--
particularly the organization Congress Party--to
Mrs. Gandhi's banner. The prime minister, mean-
while, having successfully gambled on her electoral
alliance in Kerala against the advice of the other
major figures in the party, appears to have further
strengthened her already firm grip on the ruling
Congress Party.
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PERU: A US mining company plans to abandon
its undeveloped copper concession, and other com-
panies may follow suit.
American Smelting and Refining Company (ASARCO)
has informed Peru that it is ceasing work on the
$250-million Michiquillay copper project because of
the difficulty of meeting development deadlines..
These deadlines require submission of operations
schedules by 30 September and financing guarantees
by 31 December. ASARCO has already spent about ten
years and $7 million exploring and developing the
Michiquillay deposit.
The US-owned firm of Anaconda, which has spent
almost $7 million on its $70-million Cerro Verde
copper concession, also has indicated that the
"point may be near where no further investment is
justified." Another US firm, Southern Peru Copper
Company, is concerned about meeting the deadlines
for its $150-million Quellaveco project.
The government is disturbed by ASARCO's deci-
sion, because it will have great difficulty develop-
ing the property by itself. ASARCO's decision and
the recent refusal of European firms to invest in
a joint mining venture in Peru could cause the gov-
ernment to reconsider its mining policy.
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NOTES
IAEA-USSR: The Soviets have offered last-
minute support to a compromise on the issue of
permanent seats for Italy and West Germany on the
board of governors of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), which is to be voted on at
this week's general conference of IAEA members.
Soviet support for the compromise--the continuous
membership on the board of Germany and Italy if
their fellow West European nations periodically
so elect--is a change from Moscow's previously
adamant opposition to permanent membership of
these two Euratom countries. Italy and West Ger-
many, however, are unlikely to settle for such a
proposition. The Soviets may judge that they
lack the third of the votes needed to block un-
qualified permanent membership of the two coun-
tries. They have indicated that if the US ac-
cepts their compromise offer, greater accord by
the superpowers on a number of sensitive IAEA
problems might be attained.
* * *
NATO-GREECE: Secretary General BroSiO's
delicate scenario for ending the impasse over the
report recommending Alliance measures to strengthen
Greek forces was followed to the letter by the
Defense Planning Committee on Friday. Denmark
and Norway dissociated themselves from the report--
by footnote--and Greece made a pro forma rebuttal
that the NATO forum should not be used to inter-
fere in the domestic affairs of member countries.
Brosio then ruled that the report had been adopted
and stressed the importance of respecting the
confidential nature of both the report and the
adoption proceedings. The two Scandinavian par-
liaments, however, will probably soon press their
resolu-
th
e
governments very hard for details on
tion of the issue.
(continued)
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BOLIVIA: Scheduled protests over the gov-
ernment's recent deportation of five leftist
clergymen could provoke further violence. Demon-
strations in the capital and other cities last
week led to the death of three people, including
two students, and further protests are reportedly
scheduled today. Religious groups have strongly
denounced the deportations, and some orders are
threatening to close churches if the government
does not rescind the expulsions. President Ovando
has thus far taken a hard line, characterizing
the deported priests as "conspirators" and warn-,
i
ng that the government will not be intimidated
b
y either the right or the left.
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