CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017200080001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 25, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 29, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
29 September 1970
State Department review completed
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No. 0233/70
29 September 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JORDAN: Cease-fire observers are taking up posi-
tions in Amman. (Page 1)
EGYPT: Nasir's death leaves the Arab world in a
state of disarray. (Page 4)
CAMBODIA: The government column on Route 6 has
moved north from Tang Kouk. (Page 6)
YUGOSLAVIA: The government will import freight
cars. (P age 7)
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JAMAICA: A trade union power struggle threatens
Shearer's labor support. (Page 10)
NICARAGUA: Leftist students and the church hier-
archy confront the government.. (Page 11)
TANZANIA: The government is greatly concerned over
forced marriages on Zanzibar. (Page 12)
ZAMBIA: Copper production.. (Page 13)
VENEZUELA: Student violence (Page 13)
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C JORDAN: Arab cease-fire observers are taking
up positions in Amman, but there is no sign that
either side has begun to withdraw from the city.
An Arab peace force, dispatched to Jordan ear-
lier by the Arab leaders meeting in Cairo, has be-
gun setting up observation posts in Amman. About
100 strong, it is commanded by an Egyptian general
and includes officers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Tunisia-, Egypt, and the Sudan. Meanwhile, the
three-man follow-up committee, established in ac-
cordance with Sunday's "agreement" in Cairo, has
met with Jordanian authorities and fedayeen repre-
sentatives. The committee, chaired by Tunisian
Premier Ladgham and including a government and a
fedayeen member, reported yesterday that firing
ceased everywhere in Jordan except for "slight
incidents."
29 Sep 70
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Reports of the casualties may have been exag-
gerated. The US Embassy in Amman estimates that
there may have been a total of 2,000 casualties,
including 400 to 500 dead.
In some areas of Amman the fedayeen are in
semiofficial and almost uncontested control. Am-
man is taking on a more normal appearance; there
is considerable civilian foot traffic, and firing
has diminished to occasional intense but brief
exchanges. The embassy speculates that the slow--
down may have resulted from fatigue on both sides,
shortages of ammunition, and the desire of both
the King and the fedayeen not to weaken their case
in the eyes of Arab opinion.
The cease-fire is still extremely fragile,
however. Fedayeen radios continue to denounce the
Cairo agreement. Yasir Arafat went on the air
last night to justify its acceptance, claiming that
the cease-fire will foil those who were hoping to
exterminate the Palestinian people. The extremist
fedayeen groups will go along with Arafat only if
they believe that it is in their interest to do so,
however, and they are unlikely to give up as long
as they have any hope of.victory. By the same
token, the Jordanian Army is almost certainly eager
to finish the job.
There were few reports of fighting outside of
Amman yesterday. Fedayeen broadcasts have charged
the army with shelling a residential area near
Ajlun.
29 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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I EGYPT: Nasir's death by heart attack leaves
Egypt and the Arab world in a state of disarray.
Vice President Anwar Sadat, who under the con-
stitution has become the provisional president, is
a perennial figurehead in the Egyptian Government
who owed his position more to his loyalty to Nasir
than to any degree of political strength or acumen.
Because there is no single political or military
figure with the stature to replace Nasir, it appears
that Sadat will preside for the time being with.-
those who had been in Nasir's inner circle of ad-
visers wielding much of the power from behind the
scenes. They include Minister of State Sami Sharaf,
who has been chief of presidential intelligence;
Minister of National Guidance Muhammad Haykal, Min-
ister of the Interior Sharawi Jumah, and Minister
of State Amin Huwaydi.
Nasir is scheduled to be buried on Thursday,
and the funeral will be attended by a vast array
of political dignitaries including Soviet Premier
Kosygin. The 40-day period of official mourning
is liable to be one of intense maneuvering for
power in Egypt, with the military playing an in-
fluential role. Cairo radio has announced that a
new president will be chosen within 60 days by a
two-thirds majority of the National Assembly in
accordance with constitutional law.
Expressions of grief over Nasir's death came
immediately from all of the Arab countries, and
emotional demonstrations, possibly with anti-US
overtones, may take place. His demise will leave
the Middle East even more divided than in recent
years. No other Arab leader will be able to com-
mand the authority and popular support that Nasir
did. President Boumediene of Algeria perhaps will
be able to claim some of the popular support Nasir
enjoyed with the Arab masses.
(continued)
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I In the wake of Nasir's death, the Soviets will
be gravely worried about their long-run position in
Egypt. They will play their cards in a fashion
calculated to protect this stake, subordinating
short-run concerns to their effort to find and back
a new leadership that promises not only
Soviet interests, but also to endure.
29 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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CAMBODIA: Lead elements of the government
column on Route 6 have moved north from Tang Kouk
village. A military spokesman reported that these
units have made some progress. At the same time
several battalions with the main task force are
still clearing Communist elements from forest
areas near the village.
As the government concentrates on clearing
Route 6, the Communists have been harassing travel
alon other major roadways.
29 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA: A recent government decision
to import refight cars ends a three-year policy
of protection for domestic producers.
In the first half of October a tender will
be issued for 10,000 freight cars with a probable
value of $150 million. The tender will stipulate
that one third of the total will go to domestic
producers./--
The decision to open bids to foreigners in-
dicates the urgency with which the government
views the problems of freight car shortages.
Since 1967, when the government canceled an im-
port contract with an Italian rail car firm,
domestic producers have been protected by federal
policy. For the past 18 months this included a
prohibition on rail car imports. Domestic pro-
ducers, who blame the banks for not providing
adequate funds to finance production, have pro-
tested the change. Nevertheless, their inability
to meet the urgent need for quick delivery, to-
gether with the current need to curb excessive
long-term credit in the domestic market, makes
foreign credits the only possible course of ac-
tion.
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JAMAICA: Prime Minister Shearer's important
labor support is threatened by a power struggle be-
tween the two major unions.
A three-week-old strike of Alcoa mine workers
erupted into violence on 24 September. What began
as a dispute over pay and worker dismissals has de-
veloped into a jurisdictional fight between the
country's two major labor unions--the Bustamante
Industrial Trade Union (BITU), labor arm of the
prime minister's Jamaican Labor Party, and the op-
position-controlled National Workers Union (NWU).
Shearer appears to be fighting hard to prevent
the NWU from winning a representational poll set for
30 September to determine whether the NWU will re-
place the BITU as bargaining agent for the workers.
Even if the BITU holds off the NWU's challenge, the
government will still face problems. The govern-
ment may have to meet BITU demands for large retro-
active payments in order to regain support of the
workers alienated by the violence.
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NICARAGUA: A potentially dangerous confronta-
tion is in the making with the government on one
side and the students and the church on the other.
On 26 September, 60 students from the Jesuit-
run Central American University, accompanied by the
acting rector and two other priests, seized control
of the National Cathedral in Managua. They went on
a hunger strike to protest the arrest and alleged
mistreatment of members of the Sandinist National
Liberation Front (FSLN), a Communist terrorist or-
ganization.
Student occupation of churches has since spread
to the country's two other major cities, Leon and
Granada. The archbishop, moreover, has lent his
prestige to the student cause in a letter condemning
persecution and torture and demanding that the pris-
oners be charged or released.
Government concern about the FSLN has been re-
flected in a series of counterinsurgency operations,
the latest of which netted a number of important
guerrilla leaders. The Somoza regime is unlikely
to change its policy, which is designed to keep the
pro-Castro organization constantly off balance.
Faced with an unprecedented alliance of left-
ist students and church hierarchy, the government
has thus far exercised restraint and apparently is
trying to extricate itself from the situation with
a minimum of political embarrassment. The National
Guard has studiously avoided creating incidents.
Should the students resort to violence, however,
strong measures culminating in the takeover of the
universities may be adopted.
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TANZANIA: There is a growing possibility of
a break between President Nyerere and the nominally
subordinate Zanzibar Government over the issue of
forced marriages.
Under the guise of breaking down social as well
as racial barriers and promoting equality, the Zan-
zibar Revolutionary Council has forced several girls
from the island's Persian minority to marry African
officials and army officers. Nyerere has tried
quietly but unsuccessfully to persuade island lead-
ers, who tend to act with almost complete freedom
on domestic matters, to stop the practice. In the
face of their obduracy, the mainland press, with
Nyerere's consent, has become increasingly critical
of these forced marriages. While leaving the way
open for a "private" solution, one editorial--per-
haps written by Nyerere himself--posed the issue
as one that might "destroy our society" unless Tan-
zanian leaders take a stand "unequivocably on the
side of ethics and principles they claim to stand
for."
If public pressure and private persuasion
fail, however, to achieve cancellation of the forced
marriage policy--as seems likely--it is unclear how
far Nyerere will push the issue.
In the past, however, he has
leaned over almost backward to avoid any confronta-
tion that would jeopardize the political union be-
tween the mainland and the island. Although he
will almost certainly try to do so again, he may
not be able to avoid an open conflict short of back-
ing down altogether.
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ZAMBIA: The Mufulira mine, which accounts
for about 25 percent of Zambia's copper production,
will be largely out of operation for.several months
because of a recent cave-in. Roan Consolidated
mine officials stated that the company, which is
partially American-owned, will be unable to meet
its sales commitments after l October. Because of
Zambia's position as the world's largest exporter
of copper and since the country has little ore
stockpiled to offset production setbacks, the dis-
aster could cause copper prices to rise on the
London Metal Exchange where Zambian copper is
traded.
VENEZUELA: Troops effectively put down minor
student violence in Merida and Maracay last week.
Since the passage of the university reform law
early this month, protesting students have demon-
strated against it in these two cities and to a
lesser extent in Caracas and Maracaibo. President
Caldera has taken a strong stand on the law. De-
ploring the violent reaction to it, he has insisted
on the government's determination to maintain law
and order within the democratic framework. The
government has the upper hand, and it is unlikely
that leftist students will be able to prevent im-
plementation of the law.
29 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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