CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017400080001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 23, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5-
23 October 1970
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No. 0254/70
23 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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JAPAN-USSR: Sato's speech at the UN is likely to
irritate Moscow. (Page 2)
SOUTH KOREA: Seoul is relaxing its anti-Communist
foreign policies. (Page 3)
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITY UK: The EC believes London
has overestimated t e cost of Common Market member-
ship. (Page 5)
CHILE: Attempted assassination (Page 6)
BOLIVIA: ELN leader captured (Page 6)
NICARAGUA - COSTA RICA: FSLN leader released
(Page 7)
USSR: Industrial production (Page 7)
TAIWAN: Offshore oil rights (Page 9)
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JAPAN-USSR: Prime Minister Sato's injection
of the Northern Territories issue into his speech
at the UN on 21 October is likely to irritate Mos-
cow.
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Aside from bolstering his domestic image,
Sato's insistence on bringing up the issue reflected
his desire to contrast the willingness of the US to
return Okinawa with the obdurate attitude of the
Soviets on the Northern Territories. In the midst
of continuing Soviet propaganda attacks on the "re-
surgence of Japanese militarism," Sato apparently
also wanted to reaffirm Japan'-s intention to settle
the problem amicably. Failure to reach a solution
has been the principal obstacle to the signing of
a World War II peace treaty between the two coun-
tries.
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SOUTH KOREA: Recent statements by Foreign Min-
ister Choe Kyu-ha reflect further relaxation in
Seoul's anti-Communist foreign policies.
In answer to questions in the National Assembly,
Choe indicated that Seoul's long-standing policy
against diplomatic relations with governments that
have diplomatic relations with Pyongyang henceforth
would be applied selectively; South Korean policy
now permits at the most consular representation in
such countries. A test case may soon arise in San-
tiago where Seoul will. have to decide whether to
close its embassy if, as seems likely, the next
Chilean Government establishes diplomatic relations
with Pyongyang.
Choe's remarks came in discussions concerning
a government-proposed bill authorizing trade with
"nonhostile" Communist countries. They reflect the
growing realization by many South Korean leaders,
including President Pak Chong-hui, that continued
adherence. to rigid anti-Communism in foreign affairs
could lead to Seoul's isolation. Nevertheless,
translation of this new thinking into action will
only come about slowly at best. The caution dis-
played by Choe before the Assembly is prompted by
an awareness that "softness towards Communism" can
still be dangerous in domestic politics.
23 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITY- UK: The EC Commission
has taken sharp issue with the British estimate
that the financial costs of Common Market member-
ship may be disproportionately high.
In an evaluation of a British paper submitted
last July, the Commission states that London has
considerably exaggerated the share of the Community
budget which it will be contributing by 1978 and
has underestimated the amount the UK will receive
from the common agricultural fund. The Commission
says that the UK contribution could be as low as
20-25 percent--compared with the British estimate
of 31 percent.
The Commission emphasizes that London, by also
underestimating the dynamic nature of the Community,
has come up with much too gloomy a view of what the
British stand to gain. The Commission contends that
the UK is likely to benefit in particular over the
next decade from the EC's progress toward economic
and monetary union and from its social and indus-
trial policies.
The Commission also points out that should an
"unacceptable situation" arise, the Community in-
stitutions are required to find a fair solution.
Therefore the Commission reiterates its opinion
that no obstacles stand in the way of British par-
ticipation in the Community and that transitional
measures will make such participation possible.
The British, whose next meeting with the EC
at the ministerial level is on 27 October, may have
mixed feelings about the Commission evaluation.
London could use it against domestic critics attack-
ing the high costs of Common Market membership. On
the other hand, the British may feel that their case
for requesting longer transition and "stand-still"
periods has been weakened. In any case, the Commis-
sion report could pave the way for more detailed
discussion of the key issues in the accession talks.
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NOTES
CHILE: The attempted assassination of Army
Commander in Chief Rene Schneider yesterday has
raised tensions but is unlikely to affect the con-
gressional confirmation of Salvador Allende as
president-elect on Saturday.
The Frei government will use the
emergency powers, which were invoked immediately,
to maintain order.
BOLIVIA: The government has announced the
capture of Oswaldo "Chato" Peredo, leader of the
pro-Castro National Liberation Army (ELN). Some
press reports, however, say he was killed. Peredo's
capture or death is a significant loss for the guer-
rilla forces north of La Paz, which have suffered
major setbacks in clashes with the army since July.
Chato assumed leadership of the ELN last year after
his brother--who had rebuilt Che Guevara's organiza-
tion--was killed by Bolivian police. Peredo's cap-
ture and other personnel losses will probably force
a reorganization within the ELN. It could be sev-
eral months before the group can undertake signifi-
cant operations.
(continued)
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NICARAGUA - COSTA RICA: The pro-Castro guer-
rilla movement in Nicaragua received a shot in the
arm yesterday when Costa Rica released Carlos
Fonseca, leader of the Sandinista National Libera-
tion Front (FSLN), and three of his followers after
the hijacking of a Costa Rican airliner on Wednesday.
Fonseca had languished in a Costa Rican jail since
August 1969 when he was arrested for bank robbery.
The success in obtaining onsec s release
oura e MCLY t---
other hijackings or kidnappings.
USSR: The Soviet industrial sector continues
to reg ster a significant improvement over last
.year's poor economic performance, but its growth
rate has slowed slightly since mid-year, according
to the Soviet press. The Soviets claim that indus-
trial production during the first nine months of
this year grew by 8.3 percent and labor productivity
by 7.2 percent, compared with 7.0 percent and 4.6
percent, respectively, during the same period of
1969. Most industrial sectors grew at about the
same rates posted at mid-year, but Moscow admits to
"shortcomings" in the production of consumer goods.
The growth rates of 13 of the 26 listed categories
of consumer goods 4eclined as compared to their mid-
year performances.
(continued)
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Taipei Increases Offshore Oil Claims
NORTH
KOREA
i jekyo
SOUTH
KOREA
Approximate area of Taipei's
most recent claim
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TAIWAN: Taipei's recent move to increase the
area in the East China Sea to which it claims off-
shore oil rights is likely to complicate further an
already touchy situation. Taipei recently announced
awards to Western companies for oil exploration,
which included most of the East China Sea, from the
Chinese mainland on the west to Okinawa on the east.
Former Nationalist claims have stayed clear of the
mainland and extended only to about the 200-meter
depth-line on the east. This latest move includes
an area subject to conflicting claims by Taiwan,
Japan, and South Korea, and may elicit some comment
from Peking, which thus far has been silent on the
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Secret
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