CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017400090001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 24, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
y.
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No. 0255/70
24 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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UN - MIDDLE EAST: Most observers feel the forthcoming
debate on the Middle East will aggravate the situation.
(Page 2)
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NICARAGUA: School closures have prompted protest
demonstrations. (Page 4)
INDIA: The public sector now dominates oil refining
and marketing. (Page 5)
PHILIPPINES: Typhoons have caused considerable loss
of life. (Page 7)
JAPAN: Possible cabinet change (Page 8)
WEST GERMANY - EASTERN EUROPE: Economic agreements
(Page 8)
POLAND: Meat shortage (Page 9)
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Sugar (Page 9).
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UN - MIDDLE EAST: Most observers are apprehen-
sive that the UN General Assembly debate on the Mid-
dle East which begins on Monday will serve only to
aggravate the situation.
The UN secretariat has scheduled two sessions
of debate each day after Monday, but only Egypt has
been inscribed on the list of speakers to date.
Cairo apparently will push for adoption of a resolu-
tion before the 5 November expiration of the current
cease-fire.
Led by Foreign Minister Riad, the Egyptian dele-
gation has been holding intensive consultations with
the regional groups to indicate in general terms
what Assembly action it seeks. Several African states
have been asked by Cairo to prepare a draft resolution
broadly acceptable to African and other nonaligned
nations. Such a tactic is probably designed to avoid
a sharp intra-Arab battle over wording and to give
the appearance of broad support for a resolution.
The US mission to the UN reports that the gen-
eral desire among UN members to avoid both an acer-
bic debate and a controversial resolution is combined
with a feeling that the Assembly must do something
to prevent a breakdown of the cease-fire.
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NICARAGUA: Government closure of primary and
secondary schools prompted protest demonstrations
this week in the capital and several other cities.
Schools were closed following a teachers' strike
in support of demands by the Communist-infiltrated
National Teachers' Federation for increased salaries
and pensions. The Somoza regime, in a tight budget-
ary situation, had hoped to defuse the strike before
it gained too much momentum and before the strikers
received the support of university students and the
political opposition.
As in the demonstrations last month protesting
the alleged government mistreatment of political
prisoners, teachers and students were joined by many
members of the clergy. This alliance between stu-
dents and liberal priests can be expected to con-
tinue, and the traditionally conservative Catholic
Church probably will become more involved in social
problems.
Thus far the government has shown a great deal
of restraint, but Somoza has not yet come to grips
with student and teacher discontent. Protest dem-
onstrations are likely to continue.
24 Oct 70 Central Intelli--ence Bulletin
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INDIA: The public sector now dominates Indian
oil ref refining and marketing, largely as a result of
government restrictions on foreign oil companies.
governmen aci i i.es now-refine
an distribute more of the country's petroleum prod-
ucts than does the private sector--essentially the
three Western oil companies, Burmah-Shell, Esso, and
Caltex. The IOC controls the output of five new
refineries and has built a distribution system in-
cluding pipelines, storage depots, and retail out-
lets. It made a profit of $27 million during fiscal
1969-70, about 11 percent higher than during the
previous year.
The public sector will supply an even larger
share of the market in the future. Faced with rap-,
idly increased demand and a shortage of refinery
capacity, the government plans to expand the re-
finery capacity of the public sector, while continu-
ing to restrict production of the private refineries
to the 1960 level. The government.has also reserved
most of certain lucrative markets, such as aviation
petroleum and imported kerosene, for the public sec-
tor.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Philippines: Recent Typhoons Cause Extensive Damage
BABUYAN
ISLANDS
INDONEc~...
550346 10-70
} a,
? P~'y
f SU*,`J
7teaty Limit- -4 the Philippine.
L __J
PULAU
MIANGAS
(lndone.ia)
PULAU KARAKELONG
(tn.lonesia) (.
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PHILIPPINES: Typhoons have caused considerable
loss of life and will aggravate the country's eco-
nomic problems.
The death toll from two typhoons has already
exceeded 1,000 persons and is expected to go higher.
Some 500,000 people are dependent on relief supplies.
Access to the hardest hit areas is difficult and
Manila's relief programs are strained. Shortage of
supplies and the danger of a sharp increase in dis-
ease are the major problems now.
The typhoons also have produced large-scale
crop damage--up to 70 percent in some areas--accord-
ing to early reports. Coconut plantations in south-
ern Luzon and the northern rice-growing areas have
been the heaviest hit? Extensive damage also has
been reported on Mindanao, an important agricultural
region. Coconut products account for roughly one
fifth of total export earnings and rice is the coun-
try's staple food.
24 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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JAPAN: The controversial chief of the Japan
Defense Agency, Yasuhiro Nakasone, is widely ex-
pected to leave his post in the cabinet reshuffle
anticipated next week, according to a US Embassy re-
port. Although no other details were reported,
Nakasone would probably like a post closer to the
inner workings of the ruling conservative party in
order to build a base for a bid for the prime minis-
tership. Party elders, however, have long been sus-
picious of the ambitious and independent-minded
Nakasone, and while they cannot ignore his growing
importance, they would probably like to limit his
influence as much as possible.
WEST GERMANY - EASTERN EUROPE: Bonn is making
progress in reaching or renewing long-term trade and
economic cooperation agreements with all countries
of Eastern Europe except East Germany and Albania.
Economics Minister Schiller will sign a five-year
pact in Budapest on 27 October, some two weeks after
concluding a similar agreement with Poland. Signa-
ture of an agreement initialed with Czechoslovakia
in June is expected in the near future. Negotia-
tions with the Bulgarians will begin on 26 October
following reports that Sofia, like the other East
European capitals, is prepared to accept a clause,
in effect including West Berlin in the trading area
to be covered by the agreement. Bonn and Bucharest
signed a trade and coo eration pact in December 1969.
(continued)
24 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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POLAND: Serious shortages of meat, particularly
pork products, are causing consumer discontent, spo-
radic shoppers' disturbances, and brief localized
sit-down strikes. Polish consumers consider pork
products and butter, which is also in short supply,
as staples of their diet and they will be dissatis-
fied with having to accept as a substitute the poul-
try that is more readily available. The regime un-
doubtedly is aware that serious shortages of these
items carry the risk of strong public reaction, and
although the government may continue to restrict ex-
ports of hard-currency earning meats, there is little
likelihood of any real. improvement in the meat su 1
in the foreseeable future.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: The largest sugar output
in a decade probably will intensify pressure for a
higher import quota from the US when the sugar legis-
lation is revised in 1.971. Production of almost 1.1
million short tons exceeds Dominican export quotas
for the US and other free world markets. It also
is expected to increase sugar stocks by about 100,000
tons, nearly twice the normal level. Unless export
quotas are raised, or nonquota markets developed,
the government may try to hold output be~ow the ur-
rent level to reduce stock ilin costs.
24 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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