CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017400100001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 26, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
50
26 October 1970
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No. 0256/70
26 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
CAMBODIA: Military activity was light as both
sides prepared for future operations. (Page 1)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Party boss Husak has apparently
vetoed any political trials. (Page 2)
SURINAM: Minister-President Sedney may have diffi-
culty staying in power. (Page 4)
CHILE: Allende elected (Page 5)
HUNGARY - WEST GERMANY: Diplomatic relations
(Page 5)
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Current Situation
Sv4y
Rieny
Komponyy Soni0
(Sihano~kvill*)
M1 ,
`i *,Saigon
V I E T N A M
Cambodia
o Principal city (10,000 or over)
Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
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I
CAMBODIA: Military activity remained at a low
level over the weekend as both sides appear more
concerned with preparations for future operations.
The only significant fighting was near Siem
Reap city, where Communist forces again attacked
Cambodian units dug in along Route 6 near the vil-
lage of Pouk. The continuing pressure in this area
might be designed to screen enemy movements south
.into Battambang Province.
There is some additional evidence that while
the Communists' short-term priorities have shifted
from South Vietnam to Cambodia, they do not foresee
an early showdown there. A low-ranking COSVN offi-
cial has recently told US interrogators that a
tightly-held portion of a new COSVN directive states
that it would be "easy" to overthrow the Lon Nol
government by military means, but that the Commu-
nist movement in Cambodia is not strong enough to
form an effective or lasting government. Vietnamese
Communist elements, therefore, are forced to help
the Cambodians organize already liberated areas.
The directive, numbered 20 and issued in August,
indicates that additional assets will be taken out
of South Vietnam for work in Cambodia and that some
of the responsibility for the effort in South Viet-
nam will be transferred to local commanders.
The Communist official said that programs for
the implementation of this directive were scheduled
to be worked out at a COSVN meeting in Kratie Prov-
ince in late August. He heard that, among other
things, three new Communist military regions--num-
bered 10, 20, and 30--would be organized in Cambo-
dia. The official was unable to provide concrete
information on Communist military plans for the up-
coming dry season, but some portions of Directive
20 clearly suggest that increased military pressure--
r u arl against ARVN forces--is in the cards.
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Over the opposition of the
regime's hardliners, party boss Gustav Husak appar-
ently has vetoed political trials.
The editor of the party daily Rude Pravo,
Miroslav Moc, reportedly has said tit ere will
be no political trials, even of the strongly pro-
Dubcek Pachman group, which was scheduled to have
begun last week. According to Moc, the regime
wishes to avoid creating martyrs. Moc's statement
followed reports that the last two members of the
Pachman group have been released from custody.
Pachman also was reported to have been transferred
from a criminal to a civilian hospital.
The US Embassy in Prague cautions reserve in
accepting reports of the off a-gain - on again trial.
It notes, however, that the "categorical" statement
of a high 9overnment official, coupled with
the release of the last two defendants,
suggests a firm decision may have been made this
time.
The decision on the trial comes at the same
time as the official announcement of the removal of
hardliner Josef Groessner as Czech state interior
minister. Groessner, a supporter of strong measures
against the liberal activists of 1968, was replaced
with a virtually unknown party functionary, Josef
Jung.
It is doubtful that Husak, who has been vulner-
able to criticism by the party's left wing, would
have attempted the reported moves unless he felt
relatively secure in his position. If Husak can
continue to weaken the position of his hard-line
opponents, prospects for the success of his moderate
course will improve significantly.
26 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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An explosion this wee at
the home ot the president of congress probably was
set off by the FAR.
Violence has continued through the month at a
fairly high level. Mysterious disappearances and
the murders of students and other persons associated
with the left have been occurring. These develop-
ments suggest that the security forces--which are in
the process of reorganizing and are awaiting congres-
sional action on emergency powers to counter the
terrorism--may be using interim extralegal tactics
to retaliate against FAR activities.
Some military discontent with President Arana's
apparent inaction against the terrorists is becoming
evident. Most of the recent FAR actions have been
against policemen and other low-paid security offi-
cials. A more spectacular target, such as a high
government official or foreign diplomat, would gen-
erate serious tension and place the administration
in a difficult political position.
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SURINAM: Racial tensions are continuing to
rise, and Minister-President Sedney may have diffi-
culty staying in power.
Sedney, who is a Creole (Negro) but leads an
East Indian - dominated coalition, has postponed a
visit to the UN in order to deal with a strike of
secondary school teachers that began on 15 October.
The strike, called over the replacement of a Creole
supervisor by an East Indian, has heightened the
racial antagonisms between the two groups. Sedney
has threatened to charge the teachers with striking
illegally and to impose heavy fines and prison sen-
tences if the strike is not settled immediately.
The dispute, similar to the one that helped
bring down the government last year, has provided
a focus for uniting the opposition forces. There
seems to be a growing conviction among the Creoles
that the East Indians, who control the power struc-
ture, are intentionally ignoring Creole interests.
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NOTES
CHILE: Congress has elected Marxist Salvador
Allende as president. The run-off vote took place
under strict security measures and in an atmosphere
of absolute calm. Meanwhile, a major effort is
under way to apprehend those involved in the murder
of army commander General Schneider. Several dozen
arrests have been made but the chief investigator
believes the full ramifications of the plot, which
appears to have been of right-wing on in, will not
be fully determined for some months.
HUNGARY - WEST GERMANY: The Hungarian Govern-
ment has informally conveyed to the West Germans its
intention to be positive about establishing diplo-
matic relations, but avoided specific commitments
on timing. During an unpublicized visit to Budapest
by a ranking Bonn Foreign ministry official last
week, the Hungarians said that they would move to-
ward recognition but final agreement would depend
on Bonn's ratification of the Soviet - West German
renunciation-of-force agreement and normalization
of relations with Poland and Czechoslovakia. The
fact that Budapest did not raise East German inter-
ests in its presentation, demonstrates Hungarian
confidence that Pankow will not be able to block
recognition if the other pieces fall into place.
Next week the Hungarians will receive yet another
West German guest, former CDU foreign minister
Gerhard Schroeder, and they will probably try to
influence favorably the CDU position toward Brandt's
Ostpolitik.
26 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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