CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017500070001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 7, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
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No. 0267/70
7 November 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR: Suslov injected a cautious note on Soviet -
West German relations_in..his October Anniversary
speech. (Page 1)
NATO: A number of Allies want to create a fund to
finance qualitative improvements of NATO-facilities.
(Page 3)
JORDAN: Husayn continues to strengthen his admin-
istration. (Page 4)
BRAZIL: The large-scale roundup of leftists will
provoke new charges of repression against the
Medici administration. (Page 5)
IVORY COAST - SOUTHERN AFRICA: .Houphouet-Boigny is
promoting a dialogue with southern Africa. (Page 7)
COMMUNIST CHINA.- USSR: Message on revolution
anniversary Page )
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C USSR: The October Anniversary speech by Polit-
buro member Suslov yesterday, was most noteworthy for
its boasts of recent economic successes and its treat-'
ment of West German relations.
The speech proved to be the usual panegyric to
Soviet achievements, combined with a reminder of un-
resolved problems. Suslov boasted of Moscow's recent
economic successes, said that the most important
aspects of the current five-year plan will be ful-
filled, and described this year's grain harvest as
the largest in Soviet history. Omissions regarding
the status of the next five-year plan (1971-1975),
however, indicate that major problems over resource
allocation persist.
The foreign policy section of the speech was
for the most part in a similarly positive vein.
Suslov professed Moscow's continued interest in a
peaceful settlement in the Middle East, censured US
activity there and in Indochina, and expressed Soviet
willingness to search for accommodations in these
and other areas. In virtually every instance, how-
ever, Suslov's expressions of conciliation were bal-
anced with notes of caution and, occasionally, alarm.
Suslov's treatment of West. Germany seemed best
to exemplify this approach. Though Suslov called
the Soviet - West German treaty a "foundation" for
improved relations with Bonn and the rest of Europe,
he pointedly warned that "influential reactionary
forces" were threatening ratification. Moreover,
he revived the theme that the USSR must maintain
its alert against?"revanchist" and "militarist"
forces which continue to threaten European stability.
In contrast, other recent regime pronouncements--
including a speech by Brezhnev on 2 October--ignored
calls for vigilance and went beyond Suslov's charac-
terization of the Soviet - West German treaty, af-
firming that there had already been certain benefits
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C from it although the treaty has not yet been rati-
fied. Suslov's cautionary note might be attributable
to Moscow's heightened concern over the durability
of the Brandt coalition, which will be tested by a
West German state election tomorrow. It also sug-
gests, however, that the existing consensus within
the collective on this issue is for a more guarded,
and perhaps less forthcoming, approach towards Bonn.
Suslov's remarks on China are similarly cau
tionary, and are cooler than other recent regime.
pronouncements. Suslov said that the Peking talks
"are not easy ones," and elsewhere in the address
added a harsh denunciation of unnamed ".adventuristic-
ally minded left pseudorevolutionaries." Suslov's
reversion to high-pitched polemical language directed
against China also seems out. of tune with Brezhnev's
recent statements on the issue.
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NATO: A number of Allies intend to urge, as
the core of a burden-sharing plan, creation of a
European fund that, would finance qualitative im-
provements in NATO facilities and systems.
The West Germans, following earlier efforts to
line up European support for annual multilateral
lump-sum payments to the US, will now take the lead
in the new initiative at a meeting of the European
defense ministers (Eurogroup) on Tuesday. The fund
could be used to strengthen the defenses of Allied
airfields and to improve the integrated communication
system--areas in which. NATO military planners now
see serious deficiencies.
The Dutch, Norwegians, and Italians, but not the
British, reportedly will give active support to the
plan. London recently announced that in lieu of a
cash contribution to a burden-sharing plan, it would
increase its NATO force commitments, as the US has
urged all NATO members to do. The projected British
increases, however, are severely limited, reflecting
London's tight budgetary situation.
Bonn's current position on direct budgetary
support through multilateral burden-sharing is still
to be determined, but the West Germans have indicated
that their contribution might go mainly to the special
fund. The Germans are willing to finance up to 40
percent of the fund, and are considering other.proj-
ects, such as a possible increase in military aid to
Turkey, as contributions to burden-sharing.
Bonn hopes that it can convince all the other
Eurogroup members to make at least token contribu-
tions. It remains to be seen whether sufficient
funds will be pledged to make this approach meaning-
ful, but its main thrust appears to be toward Euro-
pean assumption of a larger share of the Alliance
burden through closer cooperation among themselves.
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JORDAN: King Husayn continues to strengthen
his new administration.
The formation of the strong Wasfi Tal cabinet
has been followed by numerous new appointments,
ranging from army division. commanders down through
provincial governors to district officers in the
rural administration. Major General Zaid bin.Shakir,
the King's tough cousin, has revitalized the mili-
tary command by appointing new commanders to the
four divisions and one independent brigade that
make up the combat elements of the Jordanian Army.
He apparently was rewarding those who performed
well during the recent crisis.
The King also has appointed the former chief
of general intelligence, whose dismissal had been
brought about by fedayeen demands during the crisis
in June, to the royal court, and a brother of the
prime minister was made the royal secretary. Six
new appointments were made to important provincial
administrative positions; 13 important transfers
were made among senior police officers throughout
the country.
Husayn is clearly trying to rebuild the Jor-
danian administrative structure from top to bottom
in order to reflect the firm policies of the new
central government. In the army, a growing Jorda-
nian, as opposed to army, loyalty reportedly arose
out of the sense of outrage experienced by East Bank
officers when they realized that the fedayeen were
at least as willing to fight and even destroy the
Jordanian Government as they were to attack Israel.
It is not yet clear how far this feeling of Jorda-
nian nationalism has spread among East Bank Jorda-
nians or how much of it is reflected in the new ap-
pointments. But, it seems obvious that the King is
drawing heavily upon proven loyalties to prepare
his administration to face future fedayeen chal-
lenges.
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BRAZIL: The large-scale roundup of suspected
leftists is certain to cause new charges of repres-
sion against the Medici administration.
The primary justification for the operation ap-
pears to have been the security forces' belief that
leftists were preparing to launch a massive terror-
ist campaign around 4 November in connection with
the first anniversary of the death of urban guerrilla
leader Carlos Marighella. Plans for the campaign
reportedly were found among the effects of Marigh-
ella's successor, who died resisting Sao Paulo po-
lice in late October.
Estimates of the number of persons arrested
vary from several hundred to more than 5,000. Some
arrests appear to have been based on evidence of in-
volvement in subversion; others were aimed at left-
ist intellectuals and politicians who have been
harsh critics of the military-dominated governments
since the 1964 revolution; many individuals have
been detained because they were not carrying proper
identity documents. Some of the most prominent de-
tainees have been released, but the lack of formal
charges and continuing press controls could enable
authorities to hold other prisoners for investiga-
tion indefinitely.
The massive arrests have been heavily criti-
cized by the press, and some high military officers
have questioned their wisdom and'effectiveness.
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The President has been taking careful steps,
including scheduling congressional elections for
15 November, to convince domestic and foreign pub-
lic opinion of the essentially "democratic" nature
of his administration. The dragnet will certain y
set back this endeavor. F__ I
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IVORY COAST - SOUTHERN AFRICA: President
Houphouet-Boigny is openly promoting a dialogue be-
tween white-ruled southern Africa and the rest of
the continent.
The Ivory Coast President outlined his policy
initiative in a speech to a congress of the ruling
Democratic Party on 30 October and again on 4 Novem-
ber in discussions with newsmen. He called for an
African summit conference to consider a peaceful ap-
proach to the problem of apartheid in South Africa.
He announced that prior to this conference his gov-
ernment would contact all African heads of state to
push a policy of negotiation and dialogue toward
the "white redoubt" states.
Houphouet has long believed that unbending hos-
tility toward South Africa is an exercise in futil-
ity. He is firmly convinced that South African
policies cannot be changed by force.
By embarking on this course Houphouet is likely
to deepen the developing split among African govern-
ments on the southern Africa issue. Radical African
governments, including Zambia, Tanzania, and most of
the Arab regimes, can be expected to oppose the move
strongly. Reception will be favorable in at least
some of the moderate French-speaking countries--
Malagasy President Tsiranana has already hailed
Houphouet's initiative. Among former British de-
pendencies, Ghana's Prime Minister and Malawi's
President are both already on record as favoring a
policy of dialogue rather than force.
Houphouet has ruled out diplomatic recognition
of South Africa at this time, but political circles
in Pretoria are interpreting his statement as a
"first step" in that direction.
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COMMUNIST CHINA - USSR: Peking's message on
the occasion of the 53rd anniversary of the October
revolution extends "warm congratulations" to the So-
viet people, but unlike last year claims that "dif-
ferences of principle" should not hinder normal
state relations between the two countries. The mes-
sage, addressed to the Soviet Government but not the
party, adds that "effective measures" based on the
principles of peaceful coexistence to settle "im-
portant outstanding questions in state relations"
are in the best interest of all concerned. This is
the line the Chinese adopted just prior to the open-
ing of the Peking talks. They may be repeating it
at this time because they are anxious to avoid be-
ing branded "obstructionists" by Moscow, which has
been stressing its "conciliatory" attitude in pub-
lic in recent months. It is unlikely that the mes-
sage reflects forward movement at the talks, which
both sides have recently rea rmed to be stale-
mated.
(continued)
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