CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017500110001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 13, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
4.0
13 November 1970
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No. 0272/70
13 November 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM - CAMBODIA: Thieu has forbidden a push
any deeper into Calm od a . (Page 1)
LAOS: Hanoi's forces continue to challenge govern-
ment control west of the Plaine des Jarres. (Page 3)
JAPAN-OKINAWA: Japanese political parties are taking
a strong interest in the Okinawa elections. (Page 4)
JORDAN: The army and the fedayeen are complying
by and large with the truce terms. (Page 5)
EGYPT: Sadat has taken another step toward consol-
ing his authority. (Page 6)
CHILE: The government has recognized Cuba. (Page 7)
NATO: A burden-sharing plan is handicapped by British
objections. (Page 8)
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USSR-ETHIOPIA: Moscow apparently has balked at
financing an oil refinery expansion. (Page 10)
LIBERIA: President Tubman may step down. (Page 11)
NIGERIA: The government has asserted its determina-
tion to control the economy. (Page 12)
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BULGARIA-YUGOSLAVIA: Talks on Macedonia (Page 13)
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SOUTH VIETNAM - CAMBODIA: President Thieu has
ordered Military Region 3 commander Do Cao Tri not
to move his forces any deeper into Cambodia at this
time.
Thieu's decision was apparently precipitated by
General Tri's request for permission to go to the
aid of the Cambodian troops near Kompong Cham city.
Tri says that the Cambodians pulled out their artil-
lery from the area to support operations farther. to
the west, thereby seriously weakening the town's
defenses. He had wanted to keep South Vietnamese
troops and artillery units within-easy reach of Kom-
pong Cham in the event of a Communist attempt to
seize the town.
Thieu's reported rejection of Tri's plan may
result in a general restriction of South Vietnamese
ground forces to the area of eastern Cambodia gen-
erally east of the Mekong River. The President ap-
parently is concerned that some of Tri's ambitious
plans for Cambodian operations during the dry season
could overextend South Vietnamese forces. One ob-
server recently commented that General Tri would
chase the Communists westward as far as Thailand. if
planning were left up to him.
.The South Vietnamese Joint General Staff
has reportedly not authorized larger military
(JGS)
opera-
tions into Cambodia because it does not
feel
that
South Vietnam is now threatened b a new
North Viet-
namese offensive from Cambodia,
E
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13 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Mu ng PJ`AIN5
Enemy probiti Ban Na defenses
pv~ E Ban,
2Q; h~i 4ometers.,: ,
re
Bouani
Lone.
Na
Khan.
vekhrnent held location
?mmunast;heldlocatiari
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LAOS: North Vietnamese forces are continuing
to challenge government control of recently won
positions west of the Plaine des Jarres.
In the Ban Na area,.elements of the NVA 148th
Regiment are active on a daily basis chipping away
at government outposts and probing for weaknesses
in the defensive! perimeter. Since retaking Phou
Seu mountain on 1 November, enemy forces have con-
centrated on other key terrain features to the west
of Ban Na, employing artillery fire followed by
company-sized ground attacks.
Farther north, neutralist units occupying Muong
Soui have reported that Communist forces have become
increasingly active in the past three days. On the
basis of past performance, the neutralists are un-
likely to contest seriously an enemy attack.
The Communist campaign west of the Plaine so
far appears to be a step-by-step effort to reduce
the government's presence in this ion r the
than an all-out counteroffensive. re 25X1
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JAPAN-OKINAWA: The mainland political parties
are taking a strong interest in this Sunday's elec-
tion of Okinawa,'s first postwar representatives to
the Japanese Diet.
Top officials of the major parties have been
actively campaigning throughout the island on behalf
of their Okinawan affiliates. Japan's ruling con-
servative party, the Liberal Democratic Party, is
standing on its record of attaining a favorable re-
version agreement with the US. The opposition par-
ties, however, are attempting to exploit suspicions
among the islanders and are charging that a conserva-
tive win will pave the way for de facto perpetuation
of US military dominance in Okinawa after reversion.
It appears that the majority of seats will be
spait fairly evenly between the conservatives and
the "reformists," with the smaller Communist and
Komeito parties possibly picking up one seat each,
although a relatively large portion of the electorate
was reported to be undecided.
The five delegates to the Lower House and two
to the Upper House who are to be elected will have
nonvoting status until Okinawan reversion to Japan
in 1972. Presently, the leftist coalition on
Okinawa holds the popularly elected post of chief
executive, while the conservatives control the leg-
13 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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JORDAN: Both the army and the fedayeen are
complying by and large with the truce terms so far,
despite Yasir Arafat's public prediction that an-
other round of fighting will erupt soon in Jordan.
The fedayeen leader told the delegates of the
Afro-Asian People's Solidarity Organization in Libya
on 11 November that he expects renewed fighting to
break out soon between the Palestinian organizations
and the Jordanian Army. He said that the US was
helping the "antirevolution" forces prepare for war
by sending them military aid.
Arafat's remarks may have been tailored to reach
the pocketbooks of his Libyan hosts. Other state-
ments by Arafat and fedayeen actions in carrying out
the cease-fire terms do not suggest an early resump-
tion of fighting. Press reports quote fedayeen as
stating that they would be out of Jarash by today
and the army said it could be out of Zarqa within a
week; these two urban areas, both north of Amman,
are reported to be the only ones where both fedayeen
and army units are still present. The Arab truce
commission chief continues to be optimistic, saying
that Jordan remains quiet with the situation return-
ing to normal.
Arafat himself, moreover, said in a recent in-
terview with the French newspaper Le Monde that the
Palestinians were "perfectly satisfied" with the
truce agreement because it ended the bloodshed, de-
fined clearly the fedayeen basis of cooperation with
the government, and was concluded under the aegis of
"the Arab nation, which thus guarantees the agree-
ment."
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EGYPT: President Sadat has taken another step
toward consolidating his authority.
Sadat's confirmation as chairman of the Arab
Socialist Union (ASU), Egypt's only legal political
organization, places another lever of power in his
hands. Although the ASU has never reflected the
will of the people as Nasir claimed it would nor
gained any significant degree of popular support,
it does have some influence. Nasir previously held
the position of ASU chairman, and Sadat's appoint-
ment further legitimizes his role as Egypt's leader.
It is not clear, however, what Sadat's sources
of strength are, nor exactly how strong he is. He
no doubt continues to rely on other leading polit-
ical figures for support, but has appeared to play
an increasingly dominant role in the decision-making
process.
In his first major policy speech last night,
Sadat broke no new ground but concentrated on re-
viewing alleged 'US duplicity in the Middle East.
Among other claims, he reiterated Cairo's charge
that the US had falsely accused Egypt of violating
the cease-fire and alleged that Washington had sabo-
taged its own peace initiative by supplying large
quantities of arms to Israel. Sadat invoked the
memory of Nasir several times in what appeared to
be assurances to his people that he was car
;Eying
on the policies of Egypt's departed leader.
13 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Salvador Allende fulfilled one of his
most frequent campaign promises when his government
recognized Cuba on 12 November.
Details of the resumption of relations after
a seven-year break were worked out with Cuban cabi-
net minister Carlos Rafael Rodriguez, who headed
the large delegation that Fidel Castro sent to rep-
resent him at Allende's inauguration on 3 November.
Allende's move will be popular in Chile, where
a wide spectrum of political and business groups
has long favored it. Trade between the two coun-
tries was resumed this year by the former Christian
Democratic government, which frequently criticized
as outdated the OAS attitude toward Cuba, citing
with approval Mexico's continuing relations with
Havana.
Business activity, while still below normal,
has begun to recover from its postelection setback.
Wholesale and retail sales are up, the stock market
has improved, and pressure on bank deposits is
easing somewhat. Foreign exchange reserves, how-
ever, fell in October from $390 million to $345
million, largely because of declining copper prices
and capital flight. Many businessmen apparently
are accepting the fact that Chile will be moving
toward statism at a faster pace, but they regard
the administration's initial statements as a sign
that radical changes arR of imminent. 25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NATO: Attempts to produce a comprehensive Euro-
pean burden-sharing plan continue to be handicapped
by the prospect that the British will not make a
contribution.
The European defense ministers (Eurogroup) meet-
ing in Brussels on Tuesday achieved a consensus on
a three-pronged approach to burden-sharing. The
plan would feature creation of a European fund to
finance qualitative improvements in NATO facilities
and systems, national measures to improve NATO-com-
mitted forces, and "other financial measures"; the
latter would include a possible increase in West
German military aid to Turkey. The plan now seems
unlikely to entail any direct budgetary support to
the US and would be based on the "expectation" that
the US will attempt to maintain current force levels
in Europe.
The West Germans and Italians suggested that
the Europeans should invest approximately $500 mil-
lion in the fund over a five-year period. The Ger-
mans reiterated their willingness to finance up to
40 percent of this. Most of the other Allied gov-
ernments indicated that they are seriously consider-
ing participation in the fund, as well as improve-
ments in their national forces. But British Defense
Minister Lord Carrington adamantly insisted that the
UK effort could not go beyond the small increase in
NATO force commitments recently announced by London.
A German Foreign Office official has warned
that if the British remain negative, Norway, Denmark,
and the Netherlands would probably withdraw their
support for the fund. This would make it virtually
impossible for the Eurogroup to produce a common
scheme for the NATO ministerial meeting in early
December. West German Defense Minister Schmidt re-
portedly will visit London next week to try to get
the British to change their position. 25X1
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USSR-ETHIOPIA: Moscow apparently has rejected
Ethiopia's proposals for financing the expansion of
the Soviet-built refinery at Assab.
Addis Ababa wants to double the present produc-
tion capacity of 500,000 tons annually. Although
the Soviets reportedly said they hoped to receive
the expansion contract, they refused to lower their
bid, which is several million dollars higher than
Western estimates. They also would not ease their
original repayment terms.
Emperor Haile Selassie is said to be favoring
the Soviets, presumably because about $84 million
of a Soviet aid credit extended in 1959 remains un-
used. He also is annoyed because he felt he had
influenced Soviet officialdom to be receptive to
Ethiopia's proposals during his trip to Moscow last
May?.
The Emperor may have discussed the refinery
expansion with Italian officials during his recent
visit in Rome. An Italian bid made earlier report-
edly is about half the amount of the Soviet proposal.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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LIBERIA: There are a number of reports that
75-year-old President Tubman will not seek a seventh
term next May.
The latest report, from a US Embassy source in
Monrovia, states that the belief is now widespread
that Tubman will not run, but instead will nominate
his vice president, William Tolbert. Ill health is
given as the reason for the decision by Tubman to
step down. He was unable to deliver his message at
memorial services for Nasir on 8 November, and he
has canceled several other recent activities because
of illness. Close acquaintances have remarked about
his frequent lapses of memory.
In previous election years, Tubman has played
coy by hinting at retirement, only to accede finally
to the "people's will." This time, however, his ad-
vanced age and the frequency of reports about fail-
ing health make this possibility more credible.
There is also evidence of increasing political ma-
neuvering among high-level officials.
Tolbert seems to be Tubman..'s most likely suc-
cessor at this point. Tolbert is ambitious and be-
longs to one of Liberia's most powerful families.
Although Tolbert has many enemies within the ruling
oligarchy and there are other ingredients of polit-
ical instability, he probably would be able to main-
tain order in any transitional period.
Tubman could announce his intentions during
his birthday celebrations late this month. 25X1
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NIGERIA: In the four-year development plan
unveiled this week, the government strongly asserts
its determination to control the economy.
While the plan promises to avoid "indiscrimi-
nate nationalization," preliminary reports make it
clear that the government intends to oblige foreign-
owned companies to comply with Nigerian timetables
concerning ownership and the employment of Nigerians.
This apparently boils down to eventual majority own-
ership or control of major industries, including the
important foreign-owned oil industry that now pro-
duces more than 1.2 million barrels a day. A policy-
making Petroleum Board and a National Oil Corporation
are to be set up to enable the government to partic-
ipate in oil exploration, production, refining, and
local distribution.
Nigerian determination to eliminate foreign
control over the economy is likely to make it more
difficult for private foreign investors to deal with
the government. The plan calls for over $2 billion
in private investment during the four-year period,
but its stress on local control and ownership is
likel to inhibit many foreign investors. 25X1
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BULGARIA-YUGOSLAVIA: The first round of polit-
buro-level talks that Sofia hopes will lead to an
eventual Tito-Zhivkov meeting centered on the Mac-
edonian dispute ended on Tuesday in Bulgaria. Agree-
ment was reached to continue the discussions at the
preparatory level, but no date was set for the next
round. Because of the sensitive nature of the issues
involved, details of the exchange will not be made
public. Bulgarian leader Zhivkov has wanted face-
to-face talks with Tito for over a year, and he
underlined his personal interest by receiving the
Yugoslav delegation and meeting all of Tito's strin-
ent preconditions for the impending summit session.
(continued)
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The United States Intelligence Board on 12 No-
vember 1970 approved the following national intelli-
gence estimates:
NIE 24-70 "Prospects for Italy"
Central Intelligence Bulletin 15
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Secret
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