CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017600060001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 21, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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D
DIRECTORATE OFF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
21 November 1970
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No. 0279/70
21 November 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists hope to step up their
military action by late November. (Page 1)
COMMUNIST CHINA - UN: Yesterday's general assembly
vote writes finis to the status quo. (Page 2)
ITALY: The balance-of-payments deficit will be far
Bess this year than last. (Page 4)
TUNISIA: Restive students are striking at the
University of Tunis. (Page 5)
HUNGARY-USSR: Brezhnev visit (Page 6)
PAKISTAN:
Cyclone damage (Page 6)
ZAMBIA:
Kaunda strengthened
(Page 7)
BAHAMAS:
Pindling survives
(Page 8)
GUATEMALA: Terrorists (Page 8)
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SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists hope to step
up their military action by late November or early
December, but a full-scale offensive is unlikely.
As the dry season campaign unfolds, the main
enemy effort will most likely support the rebuild-
ing of grass-roots assets. Attacks are likely to
be concentrated against the allied pacification
program, which the Communists acknowledge is imped-
ing their efforts to maintain a hold on the popula-
tion in many areas. The current pattern of terror-
ism and harassment shellings, with occasional ground
forays against government outposts, is likely to
persist.
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COMMUNIST CHINA - UN: Yesterday's General As-
sembly vote on the China representation issue almost
certainly writes finis to the status quo on this
question.
The erosion of support for Taiwan as the sole
representative of China in the UN over the past six
months, which has occurred largely as a result of
China's more "reasonable" diplomatic posture, is
likely to continue in the coming year and to gain
additional impetus as a result of yesterday's 51-49
vote in favor of seating Peking at the expense of
Taipei.
More important, however, is the decline of sup-
port for the Important Question issue, which makes
any change in China's representation dependent on
two-thirds vote of the assembly. Yesterday's 66-52
vote is a drop from last year's vote of 71-48, but
even this result was achieved because a number of
nations had made an early commitment to vote "yes."
Several states may be most reluctant to repeat this
vote next year, since: it appears to "frustrate the
will of the majority;" some have already indicated
that they expect to change their position.
Peking can be expected to press very hard in
the coming year to counter widespread sentiment for
a "two Chinas" solution to the representation issue.
Its recent public and private statements suggest
that it is extremely sensitive on this matter and
that it fears that a number of states presently sup-
porting the "Albanian" resolution will line up in
the future behind a resolution calling for the seat-
ing of both Peking and Taipei.
The Chinese Communists are certain to stress
that such a "solution" would not result in bringing
Peking into the UN, since it would refuse to take
its seat if Taipei were also represented. However,
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even in the unlikely event that a "two Chinas" resolu-
tion carried in next year's assembly, the National-
ist Chinese might well simply withdraw from the
world body--thus permitting Peking to enter on its
own terms.
In a broader sense yesterday's vote was clearly
a blow to Nationalist Chinese .prestige.. Peking will
attempt to exploit its advantage to the hilt, fur-
ther undermining Taipei's diplomatic position both
in the UN and in the world community. One obvious
line of attack would be to encourage further diplo-
matic recognitions of the Peking regime at the ex-
pense of Taipei--a movement that will also be facil-
itated by yesterday's vote.
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ITALY: The overall balance-of-payments deficit
this year will be far less than the record $1.4
billion of 1969.
A sizable payments surplus in September has
reduced the deficit to a modest $241 million for
the first three quarters of 1970. This tends to
confirm recent forecasts by the Bank of Italy that
the deficit this year would be only $160 million.
The improved outlook for the balance of pay-
ments derives largely from curbing excessive net
capital outflows. Increased borrowing abroad by
state enterprises and credit institutions, con-
trols on the conversion of illegally exported bank-
notes, and changed interest rate policy have been
instrumental in cutting net capital outflows.
In addition, the decline in the current account
surplus has slowed somewhat. Prior to September
widespread strike activity Out into industrial pro-
duction and inhibited export growth. At the same
time rising incomes were stimulating imports. Gov-
ernment moves to appease labor's demand for social
reform, however, have gotten production moving
again and exports are now picking up.
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TUNISIA; Restive students went out on strike
at the University of Tunis on Thursday.
The students had been in a rebellious mood for
some days because of a recently imposed policy of
excluding those who fail their examinations for two
consecutive years. Threatening to strike, they
seized on a minor issue--the relocation of a bus
stop--to demonstrate and clash with the police. The
subsequent arrest of some 30 students, several of
whom were detained, actually triggered the strike.
The strike apparently lacks organization; left-
ist elements at the university did not seem to be
exploiting it. Moreover, normally sympathetic fac-
ulty members were not in accord with the students
in this instance. The Ministry of Education has
taken no action to persuade the students to return
to class, but was prepared to close the universit
should the strike continue.
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NOTES
HUNGARY-USSR: Soviet party boss Brezhnev's
attendance at the Hungarians' tenth party congress
will be used by first secretary Kadar to demonstrate
his continuing good relations with the Soviets.
Brezhnev left Moscow for Budapest yesterday without
prior announcement and presumably will have ample
opportunity to consult with Hungarian leaders before
the congress opens on Monday. Brezhnev's expected
personal support for the Hungarian leader will be
read by Hungarians and others as tacit endorsement
of Kadar's domestic program. There has been un-
usually strong criticism by party conservatives and
by East Germany's ideologists of certain reformist
aspects of the program, but this is unlikely to con-
tinue at the congress with Brezhnev present.
PAKISTAN: The cyclone that devastated the
coastal area of East Pakistan resulted in an esti-
mated loss of one to one and a half million tons of
milled rice, over ten percent of its total annual
production. The immediate problem is the distribu-
tion of foodgrains to the disaster victims. In ad-
dition, the present relief stocks of about 400,000
tons will not last long. During the current fiscal
year, the East's rice production is expected to fall
short of the needs of its 73 million people by an
estimated three million tons, almost double last
year's record food deficit. West Pakistan can sup-
ply the East with only 600,000 tons of wheat and the
remaining 2.4 million tons will have to be imported.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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ZAMBIA: The ruling United National Independ-
ence Party, Zambia's only important political or-
ganization, last week adopted a new constitution
that strengthens President Kaunda's personal control.
The new constitution is intended to enable Kaunda
to resolve controversial issues, defuse serious fac-
tionalism, and tighten party discipline. It will
also strengthen his hand in developing and managing
party and governmental policies leading to a highly
centralized state. Kaunda particularly wants to
push wide-ranging economic and social programs and
to guard against subversion directed from white
southern Africa.
(continued)
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BAHAMAS: Prime Minister Pindling survived a
vote of no confidence" on Thursday by a margin of
1.9 to 15. The vote was a setback for the dissident
faction of the Progressive Liberal Party led by
former minister of education Wallace-Whitfield.
Pindling's narrow victory could prove short-lived,
however, because opposition forces continue to ma-
neuver within the party to get enough votes to oust
him. The current political difficulties have been
intensified by the introduction of physical violence.
Wallace-Whitfield and several of his supporters were
assaulted at a political rally last weekend, alle -
edly by Pindling supporters.
C GUATEMALA: The government has scored some re-
cent successes in its campaign against the terror-
ists. Security forces arrested one of the top
leaders of the pro-Castro Rebel Armed Forces (FAR)
and killed another who participated in the assassi-
nation of the US ambassador in 1968. If the qov-
yernment can maintain pressure on the FAR by round-
ing up other key terrorists within the next few
days, it will have justified its imposition of a
state of siege and have gained a notable polit-
ical victory. There is the danger, however, that
the FAR will retaliate with attacks on US or other
foreign diplomats. F7 I
Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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