CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 22, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A0181 ~t 8
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
~~
22 January 1971
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003~0~/~~In~RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
No. 0019/71
2~ January 1971
Centr~cl Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENT S
2;5X1
1
i'
a
SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists are moving small
amounts of supplies by sea.. (Page l)
JAPAN: Tokyo has declined to join other oil con-
sumers in resisting OPEC demands. (Page 4)
JAPAN: Sato intends to show more flexibility on
the China question. (Page 5)
CHILE.: A senatorial by-election in April could
have important ramifications. (Page 6)
LATIN AMERICA: Prospects for success of Monday's
OAS meeting on terrorism are doubtful. (Page 7)
COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: Relations between the two
countries contznue to deteriorate. (Page 8)
PORTUGAL: Student unrest is continuing. (Page 9)
POLAND: Labor unrest (Page 10)
BOLIVIA: Bank nationaliza~~ion (Page 10)
DENMARK: Discount rate lowered (Page 11)
Approved For Release 2003/~$l2f,RG~;-~DP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/A~'RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
Communists Moving Supplies Via Gu~fi of Thailand
urn
~ on4
~ Communist supply depoks
y Approx~met6 rOUte used by Communists
Approved For Release 2003/~~~'t J~CDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists reportedly are
moving small amounts of supplies by sea into south-
ern South Vietnam and nearby Cambodian territory.
These areas reportedly being supplied by sea
are far removed from the main overland logistic
route through southern Laos. Furthermore, the last
deliveries from Kompong Som (Sihanoukville) to South
Vietnam's Military Region 4 occurred in January 1970,
and since the allied cross-border operations last
spring there have been several reports of ammunition
shortages in MR-4. The Communists may be making an
effort to solve these logistic problems in the area
by bringing in supplies in small craft.
Islands, located about nine miles off the coast.
munitions
an o er supp ies move y motorized junks from Phu
Quoc Island in the Gulf of Thailand to the Pirate
25X1
use the Pirate Islands as a transshipment point
At the Pirate Islands, supply shipments are
said to be divided into smaller quantities and
loaded onto shallow-draft sampans. The goods move
inland via the maze of rivers in the region and most
end up at major Communist supply depots in Kampot
Province, Cambodia and in Kien Gian Province
Vietnam. These depots are
mayor supp y an s orage points for
The US Navy maintains a trawler detection sys-
tem off the coast, and it seems unlikely that the
22 Jan 71 Central dntelligence Bulletin 1
Approved For Release 200~08T2'6~~CrA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 200~~~~-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
enemy has been able to move large quantities of sup-
plies in from the open sea to Phu Quoc Island. The.
South Vietnamese also patrol closer to the coast,
but the enemy has traditionally been able to shuttle
some supplies along the coast in sampans and junks,
and there is a good possibility that some supplies
are being moved ,from Phu Quoc Island to the mainland
in this manner.
2 2 Jan 71 Central lrate~libc~ce Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 200$~~~~~~-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/~~~6~C~/~RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
JAPAN: Tokyo has declined a British Government
request to join with other major oil consumers in
resisting OPEC demands for higher crude oil revenues.
Japan., the world's largest crude aiI importer,
is heavily dependent on imported oil; domestic pro-
duction accounts for only about one percent of
Japanese consumption,. Almost all of Japan's imported
crude oil is from OPEC countries, of which about SS
percent is produced by US and West European companies.
Tokyo apparently intends to rely on the inter-
national companies and US and West European. govern-
ments to protect its interests as a consumer. Such
a course is probably dictated by Tokyo's desire to
maintain friendly relations with OPEC countries,
The Japanese need mineral rights in these countries
to achieve their goal of increasing the proportion
of imported oil produced by Japanese companies.
Moreover, by refusing to play an active part, the
Japanese probably feel they will be in a better
position to resist the international companies'
demands for higher crude prices likely to result
from increased payments to the producing countries.
22 Jan 71 ~entrat Pr~teltigeraee Bu~Idetin
Approved For Release 2003~0~126'~CfA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 200-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
JAPAN: When the Diet reconvenes today Prime
Minister Sato will try to show greater flexibility
on the China question.
In his opening policy speech Sato is expected
to set precedent by referring to Communist China for
the first time as the "People's Republic of China."
At the same time he will again stress the need to
maintain."international. good faith" by supporting
Nationalist China's right to a seat in the UN; the
Foreign Ministry has confirmed press reports that in
effect the prime minister will hold to a generally
cautious position.
Pressure, however, is mounting from-the opposi-
tion and from leading factions within Sato's Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) for new approaches toward Pe-
king. The party executive board chairman, a ranking
member of the LDP's second largest faction, announced
that he may lead off the discussion on Sato's speech
by suggesting UN membership for all divided countries--
a concept that has attracted a fair amount of inter-
est in Japan of late. The opposition parties doubt-
less will follow with some fireworks of their own on
Sato's China policy.
Although no over-all consensus on China has yet
been reached within the Sato government, there is
widespread agreement that Taiwan's membership in the
UN should be preserved, if possible. With local and
upper house elections scheduled for this spring, how-
ever, Sato may well feel it advisable to make further
gestures toward Peking.
22 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/~g1Z~'"Ci"ATRDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/08~~IDP79T00975A018100020001-8
CHILE: The outcome of a senatorial by-election
in April could have important ramifications, espe-
cially within the Christian Democratic Party.
The seat to be filled is the one vacated by
Salvador Allende when he assumed the presidency.
The Christian Democrats (PDC} have selected Andres
Zaldivar, who is closely associated with farmer
president Frei, as their candidate in the election
to be held on 4 April in conjunction with nation-
wide municipal elections. The conservative National
Party .has nominated Silvia Alessandr, niece of the
former president, and Allende?s Popular Unity coali-
tion has picked Socialist Adonis Sepulveda. The
senatorial district is strongly leftist. Although
Sepulveda is a relatively weak candidate with little
personal support there, at present he seems likely
to be the winner. The National candidate may with-
draw before the 24 February deadline, however, thus
avoiding a split in the opposition vote,
If Zaldivar wins the election, the moderate
Christian Democrats will have a strong edge over
those within the party who still want to cooperate
closely with the Allende administration. His de-
feat, however, would debilitate the PDC even further.
22 Jan 70 +Ger-trat In#ett#gerace Bu~etin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/6~A~RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 200~~CAA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
LATIN AMERICA: Prospects for the success of
the OAS meeting on terrorism which opens Monday in
Washington remain in considerable doubt.
This third special session of the OAS General
Assembly is meeting to attempt to formulate a uni-
fied stand on terrorism in the hemisphere. It will
consider a draft proposal which classifies certain.
acts of terrorism, including kidnaping, as common
crimes rather than political acts that would en-
title perpetrators to seek asylum. The draft is an
effort to put teeth into last year's general resolu-
tion repudiating acts of terror.
Several foreign ministers have commented pes-
simistically over the lack of preparation and the
failure so-far to achieve a consensus. For example,
Venezuela has termed the present draft "completely
unacceptable" and prefers a narrow definition of
terrorism. Brazil, on the other hand, is pressing
for a wide-ranging convention and has indicated a
reluctance to modify its position even if a majority
votes against it.
Unless near unanimity can be achieved on a
convention that goes considerably beyond last year's
resolution, and unless it is quickly ratified, the
meeting will be considered a failure by many. In
addition, any bad feeling or inability to reach
agreement that might result from the current meeting
could affect the more serious problem of hemispheric
policy- toward Cuba.
2 2 J an 7 0 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/~$72~: CIi~~DP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/0~~~U~~DP79T00975A018100020001-8
COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA;: Relations between the two
countries continue to eteriorate,
On Wednesday the Venezuelan Government for the
first time made public its claim in the Guif of Vene-
zuela, which is reported to contain large oil de-
posits. The claim allows Colombia only the water
directly off its coast, reserving the rest of the
gulf to Venezuela.
Relations with Colombia have been further straine
by reports of the recent forcible expulsion of 73
undocumented Colombians from Maracaibo. According
to the press accounts, the Colombians--some of whom
had lived in Venezuela for ten years--were rounded
up and driven in armored cars to the border. They
left their property and Venezuelan wives and children
behind.
200,000 Colombians in Maracaibo. The Venezuelans
complain that the Colombians are crowding hospitals
and creating slums and are engaged in prostitution,
drug traffic, and theft. According to Venezuelan
Government figures, more than 35,000 Colombians
have been expelled recently.
Reacting to the Colombian purchase of Mirages,
the Venezuelans are intensifying efforts to modern-
ize their air force. President Caldera last week
denied that an arms race was under way, but he said
that the air force needed new equipment to "assure
fulfillment of the essential. reasons for its exist-
ence." He added that the army, navy, and national
guard also needed new equipment. Although Vene-
zuela's armed forces are in need of modernization,
further equipment purchases will be regarded by
+Cen#ral Inteilibence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0'81'28"~Yi~RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/O~I~~I~DP79T00975A018100020001-8
PORTUGAL: Student demonstrations and strikes
are continu ng despite the government's announcement.
of a comprehensive educational reform program.
Student unrest, which began to build in Decem-
ber, erupted last week in a clash between activists
and police. A number of students reportedly were
injured and arrested. In response, militants called
for a general strike and presented a long list of
demands to-the government, including the right to
organize politically and to legalize student organ-
izations.
The government apparently has concluded that
the protests are politically motivated because they
came after the preseni:ation of a broad reform pro-
gram prepared-.with student participation.- In a na-
tionwide speech on 6 January, Education Minister
Simao outlined measures that would meet such basic
student demands as more flexible courses, full-time
professors, and greater accessibility for needy stu-
dents to secondary and university education. De-
tailed proposals to irnplement these reforms are now
under discussion.
The seeming political thrust of the protests
has led to a strong government reaction, including
the closure of the universities and the use of the
police.
uc ars ness, o -
calize moderate elements already alienated by the
severity of the government's actions, particularly
by alleged police brutality.
At this point, the stability of the regime
is not threatened. Because the student population--
particularly the number of activists--is small, it
has little capability to affect the regime signifi-
cantly. Protestors, however, do retain a strong
nuisance value and their support could increase.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/08~P79T00975A018100020001-8
25X~
 Approved For Release 2003~F~-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
NOTES
POLAND: Party leader Gierek's exchange in
Warsaw Tuesday with a worker-management delegation
from the Baltic area apparently has damped down the
situation for the moment,-but the more militant
workers show a lack of confidence in leadership prom-
ises. Labor unrest along the coast has diminished,
but the pace of work remains slow with sporadic stop-
pages. Workers continue to meet, often in an unor-
ganized forum to air their grievances, many of long
standing. Local party leaders in Gdansk reportedly
have indicated that Gierek would meet one of the
workers' specific demands--paying a visit to the
area--onl if work is first resumed normal pace.
BQLIVIA: The government may nationalize the
banking system in the near future. An official of
the bank workers' confederation, which opposes na-
tionalization, told a US Embassy officer that a de-
cree has been prepared. It is not known if foreign-
owned banks would be included, In addition to two
US branch. banks, there are state-owned banks of Peru,
Argentina, and Brazil and their nationalization could
create problems with the governments involved. The
impending nationalization and further controls on
foreign-owned banks have been rumored for several
weeks. During this month's abortive military coup,
the national labor organization called for the na-
tionalization of banks but this has not been a maior
{continued)
22 Jan 71 Oral Intellige~tce Bulletsn
25X1
Approved For Release 20da~~~~~1'A-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Approved For Release 2003/~~:I~DP79T00975A018100020001-8
2X1
DENMARK: Tn response to recent interest rate
reductions abroad as well as increased inflationary
pressures at home, Denmark's National Bank has lowered
the official discount rate by one percent to eight
percent. This is the first change since an increase
in May 1969 and reflects Copenhagen's concern over
the influx of volatile, short-term capital. The new
rate, however, is still one of Europe's highest and
will continue to attract capital inflows.
2 2 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/08~P79T00975A018100020001-8
25X1
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
 Secre~'proved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/08/26 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020001-8