CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018100020003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: January 22, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/26 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0181TdjP8ftret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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22 January
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL OIL: The Saudis say they and the
Iranians will support an OPEC shutdown if they do
not get a regional settlement.
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INTERNATIONAL OIL: SAUDI ARABIA HAS ADVISED
THE OIL COMPANIES THAT THE SHAH OF IRAN AND KING
FAYSAL WOULD SUPPORT AN OIL SHUTDOWN BY OPEC IF THE
PERSIAN GULF PRODUCING STATES DO NOT OBTAIN A RE-
GIONAL OIL SETTLEMENT.
SAUDI PETROLEUM MINISTER YAMANI REITERATED ON
TUESDAY THAT THE SIX GULF OIL PRODUCING STATES WOULD
FEEL COMPELLED TO JOIN IN AN OPEC PRODUCTION EMBARGO
IF THEY WERE NOT ABLE TO GET A SEPARATE REGIONAL
SETTLEMENT,
IN A CONVERSATION WITH A SPECIAL IN-
DUSTRY ENVOY, YAMANI CLAIMED THAT HE BELIEVED VENE-
ZUELA WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN OPEC SHUTDOWN. INDO-
NESIA, HE NOTED, WOULD PROBABLY BE THE ONLY OPEC
MEMBER TO BALK.
YAMANI SAID THAT NOTHING COULD BE DONE ABOUT
THE UNREASONABLE DEMANDS OF ALGERIA AND LIBYA AND
THAT ULTIMATELY THEY WOULD ''KILL THE GOOSE THAT
LAID THE GOLDEN EGG.0' HE POINTED OUT THAT THE
GULF SIX WOULD NOT AUTOMATICALLY DEMAND TREATMENT
COMPARABLE TO LIBYA. ONLY WHEN CONDITIONS RETURN
TO OONORMAL'd WOULD THE GULF PRODUCERS DEMAND REC-
TIFICATION TO OBTAIN WHATEVER GAINS LIBYA HAD MAN-
AGED TO NEGOTIATE, IF THESE WERE NOT IN HARMONY
WITH THE GULF AGREEMENTS.
THE OIL COMPANIES' VIEW IS THAT THE GULF PRO-
DUCERS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN POLITICALLY A
DISPARITY IN SETTLEMENT TERMS, SHOULD THE INDUSTRY
GIVE IN AND CHOOSE THAT ROUTE. YAMANI DID NOT
ARGUE THE POINT OR DISAGREE WITH THE COMPANIES'
BELIEF THAT SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT WOULD NOT LAST LONG.
HE DID INSIST, HOWEVER, THAT A PROMPT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE INDUSTRY AND THE GULF SIX WAS THE ONLY
ALTERNATIVE TO A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE OIL COMPANIES
AND THE OPEC GROUP ON THE HARSHER TERMS OF THE MORE
RADICAL MEMBERS.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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