CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018100100001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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1 February 1971
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No. 0027/71
1 February 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL OIL: Oil companies and producing
countries are under great pressure to show progress
in negotiations. (Page 1)
USSR-IRAN: Obligations to Moscow may limit Iran's
actions against the oil Consortium. (Page 2)
EAST AFRICA: Obote's overthrow has strained Uganda's
relations with its neighbors. (Page 3)
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PERU: Labor confederation recognition (Page 5)
PERU-YUGOSLAVIA: Yugoslav aid (Page 5)
ECUADOR-OAS: US-Ecuador dispute (Page 7)
CAMBODIA: Scattered enemy attacks (Page 7)
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INTERNATIONAL OIL: With a 3 February deadline
for the general meeting of the Organization of Pe-
troleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) approaching, oil
companies and oil producing countries negotiating
in Tehran are under extreme pressure to show some
progress.
The differences in demands and counterproposals
remain substantial. Another negotiating session is
scheduled for today. The oil companies warn that a
temporary production shutdown could occur to under-
score OPEC demands. Outside the formal negotiations,
members of the OPEC committee in Tehran, led by
Iran, hint that an unfavorable company response
might also be met by the producing countries legis-
lating rather than negotiating higher tax rates and
posted prices.
Libya appears to have put off any further talks
until after the general OPEC meeting. Persian Gulf
oil officials indicate that they would supply addi-
tional oil only if Libya were to shut down produc-
tion because oil companies refuse to meet what Per-
sian Gulf officials interpreted as "unreasonable de-
mands. "
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USSR-IRAN: An obligation to supply natural gas
to the USSR could be a factor restricting Iran's
freedom of action to shut down Consortium oil opera-
tions.
Gas for the pipeline is derived from the crude
oil produced by the Consortium. Moscow is known to
be concerned about any halt in the flow of gas to
its Transcaucasia region, which is becoming increas-
ingly reliant on Iranian gas. Iran's contractual
obligation could affect the Shah's initiative in the
oil dispute. He has mentioned the possibility of
shutting down Consortium operations as part of his
effort to force the Western oil companies to meet
demands of the organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries now being negotiated in Tehran.
A mid-December explosion at the Bid Boland in-
stallation at the southern end of the Iran-USSR gas
pipeline curtailed the flow of gas to the USSR for
only a few days, although earlier reporting indi-
cated that it might be suspended for as long as six
months. The damage is now expected to be repaired
completely within 30 days.
1 Feb 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EAST AFRICA: The overthrow of Uganda President
Obote has severely strained relations with Tanzania
and has imperiled the three-member East African Com-
munity.
President Nyerere has strongly denounced the
new military government in Kampala and has asserted
that Tanzania continues to recognize Obote as pres-
ident. The Tanzanians apparently hope that their
stand will encourage resistance to the take-over and
will prevent General Amin from consolidating his po-
sition. Nyerere's close friendship with Obote and
his strong aversion to military coups--he was almost
the victim of one in 1964--probably influenced his
decision to support his old ally.
Although neither government is likely for the
time being to initiate the breakup of the East Af-
rican Community to which they both belong, Nyerere's
public denunciation will make its operations more
difficult. The Community acts as a limited common
market and provides many benefits, including air and
mail service. The Kenyans, the other partner in the
Community, or some other mediator may try to ease
tensions, but Nyerere seems to have drawn the line
too sharply for such an effort to stand much chance
of success at this time.
Meanwhile, the friction between Tanzania and
Uganda has placed Kenya in an awkward position. The
Kenyans have had difficulties with Obote in the
past--most recently when Uganda expelled several
thousand Kenyan workers last year--and are not un-
happy to see him go. On the. other hand, they want
to preserve good relations with Tanzania. Moreover,
even though they have been only lukewarm toward the
East African Community, the Kenyans recognize that
its dissolution would inva disruptions in
trade and communications.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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PERU: The Communist-controlled General Con-
federation of Peruvian Workers (CGTP) scored a
moral victory in forcing the government to grant
it legal recognition. This public acknowledgement
of the CGTP's growing strength, achieved by the
threat of a general strike, comes after two years
of government support to the group in order to
weaken a rival labor organization. There is some
evidence, however, that the Velasco government is
becoming disturbed by the growing power of the
CGTP. Its new legal status probably will result
in increasing pressuge on the government from Com-
munist labor unions. 1 -1 25X1
PERU-YUGOSLAVIA: The Velasco government is
considering the offer of a Yugoslav firm to serve
as general contractor and to arrange the financing
for the $63-million first stage of an irrigation
project in northern Peru. The offer is attractive
to Peru, which is eager to obtain foreign financing
for major industrial projects. Peru could point
to the contract as vindicating the government's
nonaligned policies. The contract also could be
a major breakthrough in Yugoslav. attempts to ex-
pand its economic activities in Latin America,On
where past efforts have had minimal results. 25X1
22 January,a Belgrade economic newspaper implied
that negotiations are almost completei nn this and
another Peruvian irrigation project.
(continued)
1 Feb 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Current Situation
Convoy ar shed
I Renh
Komporq Some
N
Neak
ikuong
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h-u
ECUADOR-OAS: The weekend special meeting of
OAS foreign ministers considering the US-Ecuador
dispute approved by a vote of 19-0 an even-handed
resolution calling on both parties not to aggravate
the situation. It also suggested that the dispu-
tants use the quadripartite fisheries talks between
the US, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile to find a solution.
Although Peru and Chile abstained from the vote be-
cause the resolution did not condemn the US as an
aggressor, Ecuador's affirmative vote should end
OAS formal consideration of the issue. Member
states will again concentrate on efforts to forge
a unified hemispheric stand on terrorism when the
OAS deliberations resume today.
CAMBODIA: Military activity over the weekend
consisted primarily of scattered enemy harassing
attacks against government positions. There has
been intermittent fighting around the town of Saang,
about 14 miles south of Phnom Penh. According to a
press report, a government battalion with air sup-
port is attempting to dislodge dug-in enemy troops
who have interdicted Route 30 north of the town.
Meanwhile, efforts at resupplying Phnom Penh with
petroleum have met with mixed success. A large
truck convoy from Kompong Som was ambushed by the
Communists on 30 January about 20 miles north of
Veal Renh along newly reopened Route 4. As many as
ten vehicles were destroyed or set afire and the
remainder of the convoy returned to Kompong Som.
On the previous day, however, a riverine convoy
from South Vietnam delivered over one million gal-
lons of petroleum to the Cambodian capital; it was
the first such resupply mission to reach Phnom Penh
since 17 January (Map)
1 Feb 71 . Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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