CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018300050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 19, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N? 041
19 February 1971
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No. 0043/71
19 February 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
THAILAND-LAOS: Bangkok has commented on the strike
into Laos.^_TPage 1)
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FRANCE: Strains have developed between Pompidou and
Chaban-Delmas. (Page 3)
DENMARK: A wave of strikes is threatened. (Page 5)
BRAZIL: Economic performance has continued excel-
Ent. (Page 6)
TURKEY: Anti-American activity has increased mark-
edly . (Page 7)
UN: The Finnish delegate is pushing his candidacy
far secretary general. (Page 8)
JORDAN-EGYPT: King's projected visit (Page 9)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Liberal intellectual sentenced
(Page 10)
MALAYSIA: Emergency to end (Page 10)
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THAILAND-LAOS: Bangkok has voiced support for
the allied strike into southern Laos but is becoming
apprehensive over the possible consequences for Thai
security.
Over. the past few days, influential Thai offi-
cials and journalists have indicated their general
approval of the South Vietnamese action in Laos.
An article in the 16 February edition of the Bangkok
Post, for example, strongly endorsed the move and
had high praise for President Nixon's "bold stroke."
The story was written by the paper's executive editor,
a confidant of Foreign Minister Thanat, and almost
certainly reflects Thanat's views.
On the other hand, concern that the widened war
in Laos could easily spill over into Thailand has
begun to creep into the statements of senior govern-
ment officials. After initially giving his blessing
to the South Vietnamese offensive drive on 11 Febru-
ary, Prime Minister Thanom later expressed concern
to reporters about the Laos situation, noting that
the Communist threat to Thailand is through Laos.
He nevertheless tried to reassure his listeners
that Thailand would not become a battlefield. Re-
cent propaganda blasts from Peking charging Thai
Government collusion in the South Vietnamese opera-
tion into Laos and endorsing Thai insurgent threats
of retaliation undoubtedly have fueled Thai anxieties
19 Feb 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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FRANCE: Student protests and critical coverage
of the domestic scene on French television have
caused new strains between President Pompidou and
Prime Minister Chaban-Delmas.
EIn reaction to student demonstrations over the
past week in France, the recently appointed secre-
tary general of the Gaullist party, who is reported
to have been Pompidou's personal choice for this
post, publicly criticized the courts for giving
light sentences to demonstrators. He also criti-
cized French television for presenting too negative
a view of the situation in France, and he held
Chaban-Delmas responsible. A cabinet meeting led
by Pompidou on 17 February issued a statement in
support of the courts but said nothing about the
television issue.-.-
f-Pompidou said in early January that
he holds the prime minister solely responsible for
television news reporting which Pompidou thinks has
been inadequately controlled by the government and
has been damaging to French interests. Chaban-
Delmas stated that he would resign rather than
change the present management of French television:
Slanted news reporting on television was one
of the issues under dispute during the riots of May
and June 1968, when the television staffs themselves
went on strike. Reforms since then have reduced gov-
ernment control and have partially corrected the im-
balance of political reporting, but they have failed
to still the controversy. Orthodox Gaulli.sts, among
whom in this matter Pompidou must be counted, con-
tinue to connect the issue with government responsi-
bility and national pride.?
Pompidou's problem with Chaban-Delmas is essen-
tial y one of holding together the Gaullist party.
Pompidou may well fear that Chaban-Delmas has ambi-
tions for a separate base of power. Protest resigna-
tions of two diehard Gaullist deputies earlier this
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month made clear the discontent of party conserva-
tives with liberal tendencies, such as those Chaban-
Delmas has expressed. Pompidou will therefore wish
to reassure the right wing of his party. Because,
however, unity of the Gaullist ranks will be impor-
tant for the municipal elections which are scheduled
for 14 and 21 March, Pompidou is unlikely to wish
to bring his differences with Chaban-Delmas to a
head at the present time.
L
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DENMARK: The Danish Trade Union Federation
(LO) has reluctantly rejected the state labor media-
tor's final proposal, and strike notices are being
issued effective 15 March.
The rejection was prompted by the surprise veto
of the wage package by the General Workers Union
(DASF)--the nation's largest--and three smaller
groups, together representing more than a third of
Denmark's unionized workers. The DASF and its asso-
ciates were ostensibly dissatisfied over the failure
to obtain a $1.80-minimum hourly wage and the fail-
ure to introduce immediately the principle of equal
pay for equal work. The leaders of the LO are hoping
that DASF President Jorgensen will reverse his de-
cision and accept the proposal as the best obtainable
in order to avoid a settlement imposed by parliament
and. a nationwide wave of strikes.
The LO leadership's desire for labor peace at
this point is tied in with the carefully laid plans
of the Social Democrats to resume power following
the, parliamentary elections to be held later this
year. If labor unrest breaks out, the Social Demo-
crats anticipate that the bourgeois parties now in
power would dissolve parliament early, run a snap
"law-and-order" election campaign capitalizing on
public unhappiness over the strikes, and thereby ex-
tend their term in office another four years. There
is some question, however, whether these considera-
tions are meaningful to Jorgensen. He has long been
impatient with the establishmentarian LO and Social
Democratic leadership, and by creating a labor cri-
sis, he may hope to attract defecting younger and
more radical workers and voters back to the fold,
and in the process, build up his own political
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BRAZIL: Economic performance continued gener-
ally excellent during President Medici's first full
year in office.
The finance minister's economic report for 1970
says that gross national product rose by nine per-
cent, matching the best gains of recent years. Pre-
liminary estimates show increases of ten percent in
industrial output and seven percent in agricultural
output, despite sharply reduced coffee output and
drought in the Northeast. Exports reached an all-
time high of $2.7 billion, mainly because of greatly
increased earnings from coffee and manufactured
goods. Year-end foreign currency reserves totaled
$1.7 billion, another record for Brazil.
The government also met its financial goals.
A very small budget deficit was financed in a non-
inflationary manner. The rise in the general price
level was held to 19 percent, the smallest figure
in a decade. Average wage increases somewhat ex-
ceeded the inflation rate, giving some urban work-
ers the first significant gain in living standards
in several years.
The Medici regime foresees comparable economic
progress in 1971 as well as some further improvement
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TURKEY: Anti-American activity has increased
markedly in recent days and may worsen.
The kidnaping of a US airman from a base near
Ankara last Monday--although he was soon released
unharmed---has injected a new dimension of intimida-
tion into the campaign of anti-American hostility
being promoted primarily by radical elements of
the leftist minority. The recent increase in ter-
rorist bombings is concentrated in Ankara and Istan-
bul, but may soon spread to the port of Izmir and
to other areas where American servicemen are sta-
tioned.
The audacity of the kidnaping, the wide pub-
licity given it, and the open belligerency of the
Revolutionary Youth Organization probably prompted
the new bombings in Ankara and Istanbul and may
lead to more kidnapings and other violence. The
injury of three Turkish teenagers, two seriously,
by an explosive device they found in the street
may, however, have some damping effect on the ter-
rorists.
It is not clear whether the current rash of
incidents signals a new phase of urban guerrilla
activities by the radical left. The bombings and
renewed violence on the campuses could be in anti-
cipation of a general government crackdown after
pending legislation to combat extremism is approved
by parliament. If the attacks continue at their
current rate, however, the government may turn to
limited martial law and a nighttime curfew even
before the bills are passed.
The hard-pressed Demirel government, which
shows no sign of regaining strength, would be re-
luctant, however, to resort to such measures. They
would underscore the government's inability to
maintain law and order, further damage popular con-
fidence in the regime, and increase the chances
for direct intervention in the government by the
military.
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UN: Finnish UN delegate Max Jakobson is work-
ing hard o promote his candidacy to be the next
secretary general of the UN.~
101.1 Mulluay o son wi begin a six-week tour of
half a dozen Asian capitals, having already received
the qualified endorsement of the Nordic governments.
He may make a similar swing through Africa later if
the Africans are unable to agree on their own re-
gional candidate. In talks with the US mission,
Jakobson has claimed that other Western powers are
sympathetic to his quest for the office and that no
other regionally backed candidate is likely to
emerge.
The Soviet UN mission has made some low-level
infoYfnal statements describing Jakobson as an accept-
able candidate, but most observers--and Jakobson
himself--believe Moscow would prefer another term
for Thant because he is a known quantity with a
passive view of the role of the secretary general
that is consonant with the Soviet attitude. A stop-
over in Moscow on Jakobson's coming trip was vetoed
by Helsinki as "subject to misinterpretation." Finn-
ish officials are concerned over possible Arab op-
position stemming from Jakobson's Jewish ancestry,
but a few Arab governments have already stated that
both Jakobson and his government have been scrupu-
lously neutral on Middle East questions:
Thant's announcement last month that he had
"no intention whatsoever" of serving beyond 1971
was somewhat more categorical than his similar re-
marks in 1966. A crucial element in the selection
process undoubtedly will be high-level Soviet-US
discussion on the eve of next fall's General Assembly
sessions. The secretary general is chosen by the
Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security
Council.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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JORDAN-EGYPT: During his projected visit to
Cairo tomorrow, King Husayn probably will seek
clarification of Egypt's position and try to coor-
dinate policy on peace with Israel. Since Presi-
dent Sadat's offer on 4 February to reopen the Suez
Canal, Husayn has been fearful that Egypt is plan-
ning to abandon Jordan's cause in the Middle East
peace negotiations. In the opinion of the Jorda-
nian Government the close working relationship the
King had with Cairo under Nasir has largely evapo-
rated to Amman's disadvantage. The Jordanians,
perceiving that peace negotiations are apparently
entering a crucial phase, are anxious to see that
their interests are not compromised.
(continued)
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA: The conviction and sentencing
to two years in prison yesterday of a prominent
liberal intellectual for "agitation and slandering
Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union" testifies to
the regime's determination to deal firmly with dis-
sidents who have committed proscribed acts since
Husak took office in 1969. Vladimir Skutina, a
leading television commentator under Dubcek, was
charged with attempting last year to distribute
manuscripts describing the Soviet invasion. He is
the second liberal to have been tried by the Husak
regime for political opposition since the invasion.
Husak has firmly resisted the initiation of retribu-
tive trials of liberals for their activities in
1968, but has publicly warned that the law would
be enforced. Skutina's sentence was described as
conditional, possibl foreshadowin leniency
government's part.
MALAYSIA: Prime Minister Razak announced on
17 February that the 21-month-old state of emergency
in Malaysia will end today. He also said that the
National Operations Council which has controlled the
country since the May 1969 racial rioting will be
dissolved and that a new security group will be es-
tablished to function in a subordinate role to the
cabinet.
These steps seem designed to assure the popu-
lace, particularly the Chinese, of the government's
confidence that the country is now prepared to re-
turn to parliamentary democracy. Parliament is
scheduled to reconvene on 22 February. However, the
existence of the new security group, which will be
Malay-dominated, as well as the establishment of a
National Unity Council charged with handling racial
troubles underlines the government's continued ap-
prehensions. The government is obviously still con-
cerned over possible communal disorders and. the ac-
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NATIONA \INTELLIGENVE ESTIMATE
The United Stat ys intelligence Board on 18 Feb-
ruary 1971 approved th ,follq ing special national
intelligence estimate: SNIE-84-71 "Panama and the Canal Treaty
Negotiations"
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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