CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018300060002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 20, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved FO Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T009' A018300060002-1
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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Top Secret
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20 February 1971
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20 February 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN: The drift toward division into two coun-
tries continues. (Page 1)
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COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: Colombian officials are con-
cerned over the deterioration of relations. (Page 8)
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PAKISTAN: LThe drift toward division into two
indepen cent countries continues-7
as
Pakistan's warm League wants to limit
central government responsibilities o defense and
foreign affairs and to give provincial governments
all taxing power, The party has given every indica-
tion that it plans to use its majority to force
through its program when the constituent assembly
meets on 3 March to begin drafting a constitutions'/
Rejection of the League's constitution and the ex-
tension of military rule might well have the acqui-
escence of the largest West Pakistani party, but
East Pakistanis would react strongly, possibly even
to the point of proclaiming their independence`
Yahya must be aware of this risk and of the ex-
treme difficulty of holding Pakistan together by
force. He and the generals may be willing to let
the East go, however, to avoid having the entire na-
tion subjected to what they believe would be a dan-
gerous and unworkable governmental system, which
would threaten the position of the military./
The situation could still be saved by a com-
promise between East and West Pakistani politicians,
but their public statements in the past week give
little hope of this. Mujibur Rahman, leader of the
Awami League, has reiterated his unwillingness to
compromise on provincial autonomy. Z. A. Bhutto,
major political leader in West Pakistan, has empha-
sized that his decision to boycott the constituent
assembly unless Mujib is willing to negotiate re-
mains "unshakeable and irrevocable.'
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COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: (Leading Colombian officials
are concerned over the deterioration of relations
with Venezuela.,
Last Thursday, Colombia's ambassador to Vene-
zuela, Hector Charry, on his own initiative asked
for US assistance in solving the problem before it
led to a clash or to the fall of both governments
through military coups. He expressed pessimism over
the ability of the two governments to control the
situation,j
On the same day former President Alberto Lleras
Camargo and the head of the Colombian team that is
negotiating with Venezuela over the delineation of
disputed seabeds told US officials in Bogota that
the dispute is increasingly serious and that an un-
toward incident could touch off an armed conflict.
They claimed that Venezuela has taken a tougher ne-
gotiating position that is completely unacceptable
to Colombia. The two leaders were not sanguine
about talks scheduled for March but hoped that an
agreement might be worked out which would postpone
a solution indefinitely. Both stated that the basic
underlying factor in the dispute is the probability
that the sea area is rich in oil and they expressed
fear that political pressures in Venezuela on the
issue could lead to a military coup.
A coup in either country does not seem likely
at p'r`esent but the doubts expressed by the Colombian
officials demonstrate their nervousness and pessi-
mism over present relations. The ability of the
two countries to control nationalistic military,
economic, and political pressures is a serious prob-
lem; both sides have strengthened their armed forces
in the border area, increasing the possibility of an
incident
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