CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018400010001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 26, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N~ 040
26 February 197.1
State Department review completed
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No. 0049/71
26 February 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JAPAN: The textile industry has agreed to a move to
avert US protectionist legislation. (Page 1)
FEDAYEEN: The Palestine National Council meets in
Cain o tomorrow . (Page 2 )
ARMS CONTROL: A proposal to limit underground test-
ing may receive considerable attention at Geneva
this year. (Page 3)
WESTERN EUROPE: Several states are considering a
r~af-t convention on the protection of diplomats.
(Page 4)
INTERNATIONAL WHEAT: The new agreement calls for
consultation to maintain an orderly market. (Page 5)
JAPAN: Dispute over new airport (Page 6)
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JAPANS The textile industry has agreed to a
new move to avert US protectionist legislation.
Agreement in principle was reached by textile
industry and Liberal Democratic Party officials on
a three-year voluntary restraint program on exports
of all types of textiles to the U5. It limits ex-
port increases to five percent for the first year,
beginning in April, and to six percent for the sec-
ond and third years. These increases would be based
on the value of actual exports to the US during Ja-
pan's fiscal year, April 1970-March 1971.
Final details are expected to be worked out in
about a week. They reportedly will include requests
for government assistance to the textile industry,
including granting of low-interest rate loans. Tex-
tile industry leaders have stated, however, that
similar restraint action will be necessary by Hong
Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Together with Japan,
these countries account for over three quarters of
all textile exports to the US.
The textile industry probably hopes that by
agreeing to unilateral restraints pressures in the
US for passage of protectionist legislation will be
alleviated, even though their new proposal falls
short of US demands for item-by-item restraints on
synthetic and woolen textiles. Japan's greatest
gains in textile exports to the US, which totaled
$600 million last year, have been concentrated in
sales of higher quality apparel and synthetic fab-
rics. These have grown at an annual rate of 14
percent and 30 percent respectively over the past
five years, and now account for 60 percent of total
Japanese textile exports to the US.
Japanese textile sales to the US would not be
hurt much because last year they increased only
5.8 percent Compared with an eight-percent annual
rate during the last five years. Other East Asian
textile exporters, however, would be much more se-
riously affected if. forced to agree to similar terms,
because their textile exports to the US have been
rowin even more ra idly than those of Japan.
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FEDAYEEN_: The eighth session of the Palestine
National Council scheduled to begin tomorrow in
Cairo is expected to debate issues of fedayeen lead-
ership and a Palestinian entity.
The major issue facing the commandos is the re-
surgent movement to effect changes in fedayeen lead-
ership. Palestine Liberation Army Commander abd-al-
Razzaq Yahya, who has publicly announced his inten-
tion to seek the ouster of Yasir Arafat from the
leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization,
may receive significant support from disaffected
fedayeen elements. Since the hostilities in Jordan
last September, there has been mounting criticism
of Arafat for blundering into that disastrous con-
flict and for Fatah's subsequent willingness to co-
operate with the Jordanian authorities.
The question of fedayeen support for the estab-
lishment of a Palestinian entity also is likely to
be a contentious issue. Reflecting the ferment now
going on in the Arab would on this subject,
US Embassy sources report running
wi in various guerrilla organizations regarding the
implications for Palestinians of a negotiated settle-
ment of the Arab-Israeli conflict. A number of fed-
ayeen leaders, including a senior member of Arafat?s
own group, have already indicated that the most re-
alistic course of action for the fedayeen is to re-
sign themselves to a negotiated settlement
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ARMS CONTROL: A proposal to ban underground
nuclear testing above a certain level on the Richter
scale may receive considerable attention at the 25-
nation Geneva disarmament conference this year.
'Since the signing of the Limited Test Ban
Treaty in 193, many nations have favored an agree-
ment on a comprehensive test ban that would fore-
close the signatories' option of detonating nuclear
devices underground. However, the. impasse over So-
viet refusal to accept the US position that a com-
prehensive ban must be policed by on-site interna-
tional inspection has not been resolved., and many
of the Geneva conferees now want to concentrate on
lesser measures to control nuclear testing.
Canada has enlisted considerable support for
its proposal for seismic data exchanges under UN
auspices--only the Communist states have opposed
this concept. Japan last year offered a draft
treaty harming underground detonations above 4.5 on
the Richter scale on the theory that such blasts
can be detected by national means and do not require
on-site inspection. The Canadian Government yes-
terday proposed a similar initiative, but it has in
mind leaving the precise magnitude number open to
negotiation, thereby permitting the conferees
greater flexibility in assessing detection problems.
quake-prone area.
The Canadian efforts are. consonant with the
opposition of Canadian public opinion to nuclear
testing, particularly the proposed US underground
detonation program on Amchitka Island in the Aleu-
tians. That issue was raised again recently in
the Canadian. House of Commons, and early this week
Ottawa sent another note to the US expressing "se-
rious concern" over planned testing in an earth-
Central Intelllgertce Bulletin
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WESTERN EUROPE: Several West European states
are considering a raft convention designed to
strengthen the protection of diplomats.
At a meeting last week in Rome, the Nordic
countries, Switzerland, and Italy drew up a con-
vention that would have signatories "take all ap-
propriate measures" to deal with assaults on diplo-
mats and their families. Before drafting the docu-
ment, these countries decided they could not accede
to the 13-nation draft convention completed under
auspices of the Organization of American States
(OAS). They regarded the OAS version as too strong
in its emphasis on extradition privileges and de-
nial of rights of asylum and in its categorization
of the offenses as "common crimes."
Led by Italy, the European drafters appear in-
clined to seek cosponsors on a worldwide basis, es-
pecially should the US--which signed the OAS draft--
give them a go-ahead signal. Belgium has presented
a similar draft before the seven-nation Western Eu-
ropean Union, and the subject may come before the
Council of Europe soon. France is the leading op-
ponent of this activity in Western Europe. Like a
few of the OAS nations, it does not want an inter-
national convention, maintaining that it would con-
stitute interference in domestic affairs.
Prospects for worldwide acceptance of any of
the draft conventions appear cloudy at this point,
although the subject is virtually certain to be
raised at the UN General Assembly next fall. Com-
munist and Arab governments would surely find a
convention hard to swallow, and some nations may
agree with the Argentine and Brazilian refusal to
accept a document that does not cover all acts of
terrorism.
26 Feb 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL WHEAT; The new three-year agree-
ment negotiate y some 50 nations that produce or
consume wheat lacks pricing provisions but calls for
consultation to maintain an orderly market.
Agreement could not be reached on prices be-
cause of the-wide gap between US and Canadian. mini-
mum price proposals and the difficulty in defining
a reference wheat. The price provisions of the
earlier agreement are replaced in the new accord
by a mandate to the International wheat Council to
consider at an appropriate time prospects of further
price negotiations. It seems unlikely, however,
that such negotiations will take place within the
life of the agreement.
In conjunction with the wheat negotiations a
new Food Aid Convention (FAC}, continuing the 196J
agreement, was successfully concluded. Most majo?i
donors, except the UK, which plans to discontinue
such assistance, again pledged the same tonnage of
food aid. The reduction in the over-all annual
distributions has caused some unhappiness among
certain recipient countries, as has US insistence
on the inclusion of long-term credit sales in its
commitment.
Final agreement on both the wheat agreement
and the FAC was delayed by Soviet opposition to the
inclusion of the European Communities (EC} as a
signatory. Mascow wished to reserve to other signa-
tories the right to deal with EC member countries
individually. The issue was resolved by using the
language of the International Sugar Agreement, which
says a reference to a government should also be c -
sidered a reference to the E
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NOTE
JAPAN: The government's dispute with farmers
over construction of a new international airport
for Tokyo is rapidly developing into a major polit-
ical headache for Prime Minister Sato. During the
last few days nearly 50 people, including two So-
cialist Diet members, have been injured in repeated
clashes resulting from unsuccessful government ef-
forts to evict recalcitrant farmers from land needed
to complete construction of the airport. The vola-
tility of the situation has been increased by the
physical participation of apposition party members
and extreme left-wing student factions on the side
of the farmers. Intensified government efforts
during the next few days to clear the disputed area
may well result in more violent clashes, and will.
certainly provoke sharp media and opposition criti-
cism over the government's use of force.
26 Feb 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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