CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018500030001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 11, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 40
11 March 1971
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No. 0060/71
11 March 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARGENTINA: Resignations could threaten President
Levingston's position. (Page 1)
URUGUAY: The Tupamaros' kidnaping of the attorney
general was a counterattack on the administration.
(Page 2)
NORWAY: The Labor Party leader is to form a minor-
ity government. (Page 3)
INDIA: Mrs. Gandhi has the assurance of parliamentary
support. (Page 5)
CEYLON: New attacks on US personnel and property
may be imminent. (Page 6)
JAPAN: The Communist Party is taking a somewhat
more flexible attitude toward Moscow. (Page 7)
GUINEA: The development of the bauxite industry
has been adversely affected. (Page 8)
EGYPT-USSR: Economic delegation (Page 9)
USSR: Gold sales (Page 9)
BRAZIL: 200-mile territorial sea claim (Page 10)
JAPAN: West European textile trade (Page 10)
TURKEY: Military intervention (Page 11)
CHILE - EAST GERMANY: Diplomatic relations (Page 11)
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ARGENTINA: Recent government resignations
could threaten President Levingston's position.
The resignation on 8 March of Hugo Taboada,
the undersecretary for political affairs in the
Interior Ministry, is the latest in a series of
dismissals and resignations of high-level and
popular officials in the past month. Taboada
cited disagreement with Levingston's handling of
affairs in Cordoba, particularly the naming of
an unpopular replacement for the popular Cordoba
governor who resigned last month over a budgetary
dispute with Levingston.
The effect of these continuing changes in
the government is to create a public image of a
president faced with growing strains within the
country as well as serious political problems.
This picture gives credibility to the rumors of
a power struggle between Levingston and army com-
mander Lanusse. Compounding the growing uncer-
tainty in the country is the deteriorating economic
situation, which has prompted the government to
announce new price controls and a ceiling on wage
raises currently being negotiated.
General Lanusse reiterated his support for
Levingston in a speech on 2 March, but the prob-
lems caused by the new economic controls and the
government changes could cause him to re-examine
this position. The military cannot tolerate a
serious breakdown of social order, and fear that
this may be in the offing could bring increasing
pressure on Lanusse to take corrective action.
Any decision on this matter, however, would prob-
ably await the return from the US next Sunday of
Air Force commander Rey, a member of the three-
man junta that named Levingston president last
June.
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URUGUAY: The Tupamaros' kidnaping of the coun-
try's attorney general yesterday was a direct coun-
terattack on the Pacheco administration.
The terrorists have recently freed two kidnap
victims after failing to gain any concessions from
the government. Administration officials hoped that
government operations might soon lead to the release
of British Ambassador Jackson, kidnaped in January.
The police, especially while operating under the
emergency security measures imposed immediately after
the abduction of Jackson, have been able to apprehend
terrorists and uncover planned operations. On 9
March, the interior minister announced that a guer-
rilla plan to kidnap two of the President's children
had been foiled.
The administration also has been pressing for
more effective court action against imprisoned ter-
rorists. Thus, the pickup of the nation's chief
prosecuting attorney was not only a rebuttal of the
administration's rising optimism but also, like sev-
eral Tupamaro gambits in the past, seems intended as
a warning to the judiciary and police to deal lightly
with captured guerrillas. A relative of the attor-
ney general was told that the prosecutor would be
released today after "interrogation." The adminis-
tration's response to the abduction will be to press
even harder for the reimposition of tough security
measures--a request the legislature has twice refused.
The kidnaping, the Tupamaros' eighth,. occurred
only a few days before the scheduled opening of a
hemispheric trade meeting in Punta del Este and
guarantees the terrorists another flood of public-
ity. The slap at the government also occurs as a
movement to amend the constitution and allow Pacheco
to run for a second term is gathering some strength.
If Pacheco persists in a re-election bid, the possi-
bility increases that the terrorists will use kid-
napings to attempt to embarrass the government and
discredit the President's hard-line approach.
I
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NORWAY: Labor Party leader Trygve Bratteli
has been given the mandate to form a minority gov-
ernment following the failure of the four center-
right parties to reconstitute their coalition.
Bratteli, 61, has led the Labor Party since
1965, after more than 25 years in apprenticeship as
secretary and vice chairman. His prominence in the
party was sufficient ground for
the Nazis to imprison him in con-
centration camps from 1942 to
1945. Elected to Parliament in
1949, Bratteli resigned in 1951
to become minister of finance and
later minister of communications.
In 1964 he resigned from the cab-
inet to re-enter Parliament.
The new government, whose
membership will be made known on
Monday, can count on only 74 of
the 150 votes in Parliament. It
can therefore be expected to fol-
low a cautious course in its do-
mestic and foreign policies. The
Labor Party leadership is commit-
ted to Norwegian entry into the European Communities
(EC), but stiff opposition among the party's youth
and left wings will oblige Bratteli to move care-
fully. To conciliate these groups Bratteli may
make such gestures as proposing recognition of North
Vietnam, encouraging detente in Norway's relations
with Eastern Europe, and adopting a more restrictive
national policy in regard to the newly tapped oil
fields in Norway's sector of the North Sea.
A reformation of the four-party bourgeois bloc
is not expected soon, because of the bitterness en-
gendered by the EC accession debate and the circum-
stances surrounding the fall of the Borten govern-
ment. Borten's Center Party has already taken
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advantage of the breakup of the coalition to an-
nounce its opposition to EC entry, a policy flatly
contradicting the stand taken by the Conservative
and Liberal parties. The Christian People's Party,
while not openly announcing its position, is sym-
pathetic to the Center view. If as few as four
Labor members of Parliament decide to join the
Center and Christian People's parties on this is-
sue, the necessary number to block EC entry will be
attained, and the Bratteli government could be
toppled.
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I INDIA: Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's appar-
ent win of a parliamentary majority has vindicated
her gamble in calling national elections a year be-
fore they were constitutionally required.
Incomplete and unofficial electoral returns
have already given the 53?-year old prime minister
an impressively strong mandate to continue her of
forts toward social and economic development. Mrs.
Gandhi campaigned vigorously against a four-party
opposition alliance whose challenge was seriously
weakened by internal bickering and by its failure
in numerous constituencies to back only a single
candidate.
To secure a majority in the lower house, Lok
Sabha, Mrs. Gandhi's Ruling Congress Party needed
261 seats--an increase of 33 over the number held
when Parliament was dissolved last December. Mrs.
Gandhi was particulary anxious to free herself from
the need for support of various minority parties--
a dependency necessitated by the split in the Con-
gress Party in late 1969.
She now has the assurance of parliamentary sup-
port for the programs she is expected to propose for
dealing with India's monumental problems. In es-
sence, her campaign focused on the need for a more
equitable distribution of wealth and a generally
better deal for the poverty-stricken masses who com-
prise the majority of India's 560 million population.
Beyond this, however, she failed to outline the spe-
cific programs she planned to pursue.
The vote can be read as a strong vote of confi-
dence by the young, the poor, and the minorities in
Mrs. Gandhi's leadership. It is most significant as
a personal victory for her, but it also endorses the
Ruling Congress as India's only truly national party.
The prospect is for a stronger, more stable central
government with enhanced power to develop policies
of moderate socialism at home while maintaining In-
dia's traditional independent foreign policy. I
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SECRET
CEYLON: New attacks against US personnel and
property by dissident Communist revolutionaries may
be imminent.
The Ceylonese Navy, which is considered a more
disciplined force than the army or police, has as-
sumed responsibility for guarding some of the US
property in Colombo. The Ceylonese Government, now
apparently concerned over the implications for its
own security, has invoked emergency powers.
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a group within the Ceylon Communist Party Peking
(CCP/P) was to meet yesterday to discuss possible
attacks on homes of US Embassy personnel. This group
has a layout of the residence of the US ambassador,
who is currently in Washington.
a rebel group within the CCP/P was responsible
for the attack on 6 March, but it is not clear whether
the two groups are identical. Other revolutionary
groups, which make up an amorphous "Che Guevarist
movement" on the island, may try to stage incidents
in attempts to outdo each other.
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JAPAN: The Japan Communist Party (JCP) is
taking a somewhat more flexible attitude in its re-
lations with Moscow.
The JCP announced that a delegation was sched-
uled to depart for Moscow on 10 March to discuss
the many basic ideological differences dividing the
two, ending a three-year break in interparty con-
tacts. At the same time, the JCP issued a sharp
attack on Peking for "intolerable" meddling in in-
ternal Japanese politics, and specifically for try-
ing to "destroy" the JCP. This is in line with the
highly independent and nationalistic course the JCP
has been pursuing, which has resulted in strained
relations with both Moscow and Peking but has in-
creased the party's popularity at home.
Moscow has invited the JCP to attend the up-
coming 24th party congress, but the Japanese have
reserved judgment pending the outcome of their
planned preliminary talks. In view of the impor-
tant domestic benefits inherent in the JCP's pres-
ent independent policy, the Japanese Communists
probably will be unwilling to forgo their frequent
criticism of the Soviets on such issues as Japan's
former northern territories. Thus, a significant
improvement in relations between the JCP and Moscow
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GUINEA: Development of the important bauxite
industry has been adversely affected by events since
the Portuguese-directed attacks against Guinea last
November.
Progress on the new $185-million Boke bauxite
project has been hampered by the government's tight-
ened security measures and by its heightened suspi-
cion of foreigners operating in Guinea. Guinean
charges of West German complicity in the invasion
led to a diplomatic break and expulsion of the Ger-
man aid team, including four men who worked at Boke.
Much of Boke's equipment is of German manufacture,
and German technicians are needed to install it prop-
erly.
These developments have contributed to. low
morale among foreign workers throughout the bauxite
industry. President Toure regards the smooth de-
velopment of Boke as crucial to Guinea's economic
future and probably will take steps to correct the
situation. In January he intervened personally to
obtain the release of expatriate workers arrested
and summarily sentenced by overzealous party mili-
tants. More recently, he ordered approval of entry
visas for all waiting technicians except the Germans.
The general climate of suspicion remains, however,
and undoubtedly will continue to cause problems be-
tween Western technicians and Guinean officials.
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NOTES
EGYPT-USSR: The current visit of a high-level
Egyptian economic delegation to Moscow may result in
the first new Soviet economic aid in almost seven
years. In addition to signing the customary exten-
sion of the long-term Soviet-Egyptian trade agree-
ment, the Soviets may follow through on an earlier
offer to support additional projects associated with
the Aswan High Dam. During inauguration ceremonies
in January the USSR.offered to provide technical as-
sistance for and the foreign exchange costs of a
rural electrification program using power from Aswan.
Moscow also offered aid for reclamation of an addi-
tional 100,000 acres of land using water stored in
Lake Nasir, the Aswan reservoir. According to press
reports, the delegation also will discuss various in-
dustrial projects with the Soviets.
USSR: Moscow
has recently been selling to million of gold
per week in Basel. Although the reason for these
small sales is not clear, they will offset the re-
cent decline in hard currency earnings from sales
of diamonds and platinum. By selling gold in these
quantities, the Soviets have not disturbed the price
of gold on the free market, which in recent weeks
has been more than ten percent above the official
price of $35 per ounce. It is unlikely that Moscow
intends to resume substantial sales like those that
last took place in 1966. Since that time Moscow has
made sporadic sales of the same magnitude as the re-
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cent transactions.
(continued)
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SECRET
BRAZIL: The government is preparing to imple-
ment its year-old claim to a 200-mile territorial
sea. A Foreign Ministry official has confirmed that
a decree regulating fishing rights in the claimed
area has been completed and sent to President Medici
for his approval. The decree would reserve some
areas basically for Brazilian fishing boats, although
limited fishing in these areas would be permitted to
countries willing to negotiate special arrangements
with Brazil. It would open other areas to foreign
fishermen who purchase relatively low-cost licenses.
The official stated that Brazil hopes to avoid fric-
tion with countries not recognizing broad territorial
waters claims. A formula is being sought whereby the
governments of those countries that decided to nego-
tiate fishing rights could reserve their positions
on the territorial seas issue.
JAPAN: Several West European countries, in-
cluding West Germany, France, and the UK, have asked
Tokyo to hold talks on textile trade problems, ac-
cording to press accounts from Japanese Government
sources. These countries, relieved that Japan has
offered to resolve the textile impasse with the US,
are concerned that Japan's unilateral restraints on
textile exports to the US will cause increased flows
of textiles into Western Europe. They probably are
anxious to receive similar guarantees. In the past
several years, Japan's textile exports to Western
Europe have been only about one third as large as
those to the US, which amounted to $600 million last
year. Tokyo reportedly is reacting cautiously to
these requests and probably will defer action until
its program with the US begins.
(continued)
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C TURKEY: The military high command may inter-
vene in the deteriorating political situation either
directly or behind a facade of civilian rule, pos-
sibly within the next 24 hours. There is no longer
any question of whether the military will intervene,
but merely what form the intervention will take
The deci-
sion on what specific measures the armed forces
should take was to be made at a meeting of the Com-
mand Council of the Armed Forces in Ankara vester-
day.
CHILE - EAST GERMANY: The Allende government
reportedly will establish diplomatic relations with
East Germany within a week. A high-ranking Chilean
delegation now attending the Leipzig Trade Fair will
sign the agreement, and a leader of the pro-Moscow
Chilean Communist Party will. be sador to
Pankow Presi-
dent Allende lacceded to domestic and East
German pressure to advance the date of recognition
because he believes that his non-Communist emissary
currently in Bonn can reassure West German officials
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