Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
December 14, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 7, 2003
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 23, 1971
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2.pdf491.66 KB
Approved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A0186~'~ 2 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret N'~ 4 0 23 March 1971 Approved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 25X1 25X1 gpproved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 200 Fib-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 No. 0070/71 23 March 1971 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENT S LAOS: The government is moving to stabilize the situation around Luang Prabang. (Page 1) COMMUNIST CHINA - JAPAI~T: Peking appears to be soft- ening its attitude on Sino-Japanese problems. (Page 2) ARAB FEDERATION: A formal union reportedly is to be announce next Sunday. (Page 4) SWEDEN: The government will not seek full member- ss tin the EC . ( Page 5 ) TANZANIA: Restrictions have been imposed on capital tra-"ns~ers. (Page 6) USSR-JAPAN: Communist parties (Page 7) PAKISTAN: National Assembly postponed (Page 7) TURKEY: Political situation (Page 8) AUSTRALIA: New cabinet (Page 8) USSR-INDONESIA: Military spare parts (Page 9) CHILE: Possible plotting (Page 9) Approved For Release 200~~Q~-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 20Q~]~~$~~I`A-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 LAOS:.. The government is taking .steps to sta- bilize the situation around Luang Prabang. Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma and Defense Minister Sisouk visited. the royal capital yesterday. Sisouk later said he thinks the situation there has stabilized, but he was dismayed that government units-north and northeast of the town had-fled in the face of what he be1~_eved were, only some 300-400 enemy attackers. Sisouk was clearly displeased with the perform- ance.of military leaders in Military Region 1, and he has ordered two gener_a1s and several other of- ficers from the general staff to move to Luang Prabang to assume control of all tactical opera- tions in the region.- The regional commander, who is the King's brother,-and his staff will remain in place, however. General Van.g Pao, commander of Military Region 2, also visited Luang Prabang and subsequently ordered some '400 irregulars from his region to reinforce the town. King Savang is taking an active role in planning new government military moves; he has ordered govern- ment units .to recapture the positions nearest the airfieldat once. The King canceled his traditional appearance at Army Day in Vientiane yesterday in order to remain in Luang Prabang. His continued presence. there should have a beneficial effect on the town"s citizenry, who believe his presence af- fords the town itself military immunity 2 3 Mar '71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/bC~/Z~'~ Ct'~RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/~H~RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 25X1 25X1 ~ COMMUNIST CHINA - JAPAN; Peking appears to be softening its rigi att~.tu a of the last few years on Sino-Japanese problems. Premier C ou En-lai remarked that Japanese Government leaders are welcome to visit China at any time, singling out the "present prime minister and foreign minister." Chou's state- ment stands in marked contrast to Peking's public posture of irreconcilable hostility toward the Sato government. Chou can hardly expect this gesture to be acted on, but his remarks suggest that Peking might be prepared for the first time to deal with Sato if it thought there was an opportunity far a significant exchange on key bilateral issues. The most important of these issues appears to be Tokyo's relations with Taiwan. Peking's new flex- ibility is probably designed to forestall the possi- bility that, as a result of its large. economic stake in the island, Japan will supplement or replace the US as the "protector" of the Nationalist regime. Peking recently underlined its concern on this issue when in a restatement of its "conditions" for the establishment of Sino-Japanese diglamatc relations it included for the first time a demand that Tokyo abrogate the Japan-Taiwan peace treaty of 1950. In practice, however, even this demand may be softer than it appears on the surface. au n- ai recen y encourage a v~s~ o many more "leftist" businessmen to China and immediately defined as leftist anyone who "visualized" severing relations with Taipei. This formulation, a major change from Peking's previous definition, is clearly meant to suggest to Japanese business circles that Chinese markets wi11 prove more fruitful than those in Taiwan. (continued} 2 3 Mar 71 Centrctt da~tel't{geace ButleNs 25X1 Approved For Release 200~~2~~1~-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003G21~-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 In putting forward these new ideas, Peking may also have in mind short-term considerations involving some way of influencing Japan's position on this year's UN vote and exploiting possible tensions on the issue among Tokyo, Taipei, and Washington. In contrast to its generally conciliatory at- titude, Peking has in the past year maintained a rigid attitude toward Japan. This approach has nei- ther undercut the Sato government nor appreciably arrested a drift toward a "one China, one Taiwan" . policy in Tokyo, Chou's recent remarks suggest that Peking is now considering substituting honey for 2 3 Mar 71 Central Intell%gence Bulletin 25X1 c'~F~~RR FF Approved For Release 20031'03128`~t~1 -RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/0~I~,C'-~DP79T00975A018600030001-2 ARAB FEDERATION.: The. formal four-state union, which press reports say is to be announced next Sun- day, is probably regarded by Egyptian President Sadat as primarily a device to maintain Arab support for Cairo's policy of negotiation.. According to a fairly reliable Beirut newspaper, a union bringing together Egypt, Syria, Libya, and the Sudan will be established if Libyan-Sudanese differences can be resolved. Failing this, a three- state union, excluding the Sudan, will be formed. The decision to proceed with the formal union may have been confirms d during Fresident Sadat's un- announced one-day trip to Zibya last week. Sadat is fully aware of the popular opposition to the fed- eration in both Libya and the Sudan, and of Egypt's unhappy union experience with Syria from 1958 to 1963. He has heretofore resisted Libyan Premier gadhafi's insistent calls for rapid movement toward unification. He may now believe, however, that the time has come to present at least the facade of an Arab united front during the current delicate phase of the Middle East peace negotiations. Sadat may also hope that Syria's accession to the grouping will. generate domestic support far Asad as well as backing within the Syrian leadership for Cairo's stand in the Arab-Israeli negotiations. The Sudanese position on joining the union is still un- clear. Since last November, President Numayri, mov- ing cautiously on an issue unpopular in the Sudan, has insisted on a protracted timetable for formal union. His position has been the subject of some bitter exchanges with Qadhafi. Despite the broad scope of the planned merger-- reportedly to encompass defense, foreign, and eco- nomic affairs--it seems highly unlikely that effec- tive supranational political integration will be achieved soon, if ever,. While disCUSSlons tan uni- fication in a number of fields have been under way for more than a year, little tangible progress has et been made toward im lementin 2 3 Mar 71 Central intettigerue Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 200328`:'~~RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 200$~:~1~-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 SWEDEN': The government has. formally announced that it w 11 not seek full membership in the European Communities (EC). The reason given for this decision is that for- eign policy cooperation among the Six and the pro- jected economic and manetary union would threaten. national decision-making powers in key areas and would therefore be incompatible with Swedish neu- trality. The announcement is generally recognized as having little practical significance, because the neutrality reservations Sweden attached to its renewed approach to the EC last November virtually precluded membership. Subsequent critical comments by Swedish officials on EC moves in the foreign policy and monetary areas underlined the basic in- compatibility. The official objeci~ive in regard to the EC has thus been redefined as participation in a customs union comprising both industrial and agricultural goods, with special insi~itutional forms of coopera- tion corresponding to the scope and nature of Swedish obligations. Fully aware that the EC is not at all sympathetic to a mere customs union arrangement, which has been derided as conferring all the benefits and requiring none of the responsibilities of member- ship, the Swedes would accept the creation of a free trade area for industrial products, with special ar- rangements in agriculture and some coordination in other sectors. Though not a surprise, the government's announce- ment has been played to shore up Prime Minister Palme's sagging popularity, as well as remove the EC member- ship issue as a target for left-wing sniping. It has also provided the government with an opportunity to point up the disunity among the three bourgeois op- position parties on this issue. The Center Party reacted by fully endorsing the government decision; the Liberals equivocated, but finally subscribed re- luctantly; and the conservative Moderate Coalition 25X1 criticized the decision as premature. Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/ 28RCIA RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/0~~DP79T00975A018600030001-2 TANZANIAN The government, faced with financial problems, as imposed restrictions on capital trans- fers to its East African Community (EAC) partners, Kenya and Uganda. It also has banned all exports of Tanzanian cur- rency except for payments for legitimate trade. Zast year Tanzania's leakage of capital to Kenya was reportedly $14 million more than in 1969, causing Tanzania to make a substantial cutback in planned development expenditures for 1971. Reserves cur- rently available to Tanzania stand at about $66 mil- lion, or just about equivalent to four months of im- ports at 1969 levels, The EAC is a limited common market and operates services such as air and rail transportation for the three members, The treaty, signed in 196?, does not prevent exchange controls from being exercised by each country, but it does require those countries to permit alI bona fide current account payments without undue delay. Tanzania appears to be abiding by the letter of the treaty, but the spirit of the treaty, which has suffered of late, especially since the recent. coup in Uganda, may be further tarnished by this move, 2 3 Mar ? 1 Central Fntelligenee Bulletin 25X1 SECI~E'I` Approved For Release 2003/03/28: CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/4i~.ljI~DP79T00975A018600030001-2 U55R-JAPANe The Soviet and Japanese Communist parties ave ecided to mute their long-standing quarrel as a result of consultations in Moscow. In return for a decision by the Japanese party to send a delegation to the upcoming Soviet party congress, Moscow apparently has pledged to cease its support for a pro-Soviet Japanese Communist splinter group. The parties apparently did not reconcile their con- flicting ideological views on such issues as the So- viet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the U55R's re- tention of the Japanese-claimed "Northern Terri- tories, but the wording of their joint communique suggests they have agreed to keep their differences private. The presence of the important Japanese Com- munist Party at the Soviet party congress would be a significant gain for Moscow and may redound to the political credit of Soviet. politburo member Suslov, who apparently was instrumental in easing the strained relations. PAKI5TANe President Yahya, after a meeting with Z.Z. Ao Bhutto of West Pakistan and East Paki- stani leader Mujibur Rahman, has postponed the Na- tional Assembly. It had been scheduled to convene on 25 March to begin writing a new constitution, but all parties have apparently decided that more time is needed. for negotiations, With Mujib's prior ap- proval of the postponement, it seems unlikely there will. be a repetition of the violence that followed Yahyaes, earlier postponement of the assembly on 1 Marcho Central Intelligence Bullet~tn (continued) 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0~~~~P79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003/jRDP79T00975A018600030001-2 TURKEY: The political situation remains in a state o~~ux pending the formation of a new cabinet and the adoption of an approved program. Prime minis- ter - designate Erim should be able to put together an aeceptablecoalition government, howeve r, now that he has received pledges of su~gort-from both major parties. Erim reportedly intends. to select. up to half of his cabinet ministers from among in- dependents and from outside Parliament. If Erim is unsuccessful, the threat of an ultimate military take-over persists, and many Turkish political ob - servers view Erim as "a last chance." Although the nationwide military alert has been relaxed, security precautions in some areas h een tight- ened~ , AUSTRAi~IA: ,.Prime Mirtistex W~1~.iam~,Mc~+tahQ~! Li}~gr,a~quntry cak~iriet, which was installed yester- day, has a more conse;rvati.ve appearance than the former government, but policy should rernain_un-, changed. Billy Sneclden, the new treasurer,iand John Gorton, now defense minister, are likely to be the strongest individuals .and politically the most ef- fective i,n the cabinet. Fozeign .Ni1niste~ Busy, al- thoug~ -able, lacksj,~lar and ~orceful}~ess, and it, seems. likely, that McMahon himself will -keep. a chose hare. ~~ fcare~,gn ,policy,. .Although McMahan. ?-psis~,~. , -his eabipet wild sezve cut .the ~e~tn ,wh~.c#~ ends. in Ngvember 19?72., tha government's present heightened popularty,could,induce him: to call elections within continued) 2 3 Mar 71 Central Intelltg~nce Butdetsn 25X1 Approved For Release 2003~~~8`~~-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 Approved For Release 2003t~~/~RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 USSR-INDONESIA: The Indonesian foreign minis- ter has announced that Moscow has finally agreed to provide spare parts fo.r the air force and navy on credit, according to a press report. Since 1967 Indonesia has purchased almost $5 million worth of spares from Moscow under a $10-million cash agree- ment, but Djakarta had been trying to get the re- mainder converted to a credit basis. The agreement is unlikely to lead to a more comprehensive military aid program and the equipment will. do little more than delay the deterioration of Soviet materiel in Djakarta's inventories. In an economy move, Indo- nesia's air force and navy had cannibalized some Soviet equipment and sold it for scrap. CHILE: A number of junior and middle grade of- ficers~-all branches of the armed forces are re- ported to have formed a clandestine Revolutionary Committee (CR) and may be plotting a coup at the time of the municipal elections of 4 April. Several reports indicate that civilian as well as military members of the CR are supporters of dissident re- tired general Roberto Viaux; there is no real na- tional leadership. The realization of CR members that most top military commanders have reached an accommodation with the President may influence the malcontents to aim a.t changes in the government rather than its overthrow, Their chances of success- fully pressuring the government seem poor at this time. 23 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/g~~RCRDP79T00975A018600030001-2 5~~;roved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2 a7f:C~et Approved For Release 2003/03/28 :CIA-RDP79T00975A018600030001-2