CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018600080001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 29, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
9W
ccet
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 40
29 March 1971
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No. 0075/71
29 March 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN: The army is firmly in control of Dacca
but the situation in the rest of East Pakistan re-
mains unclear. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists seem to have begun
their long-anticipated spring campaign in the north.
(Page 5)
LAOS: Some sharp fighting occurred over the weekend,
especially near Luang Prabang. (Page 7)
CHINA-RECOGNITION: Kuwait will recognize Peking to-
day and Cameroon may soon follow suit. (Page 8)
USSR: Brezhnev is expected to dominate the 24th
CPSU Congress that opens tomorrow. (Page 9)
UN - MARITIME ISSUES: A preparatory meeting for the
1973 Law of the Sea conference had mixed results.
(Page 11)
SIERRA LEONE: Prime Minister Stevens has forcefully
reasserted his authority in Freetown. (Page 13)
CAMBODIA: Action at Pich Nil (Page 15)
BERLIN: No progress on passes (Page 15)
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PAKISTAN: The army is firmly in control of
Dacca ut the situation in the rest of East, Pakistan
remains unclear.
Complete censorship of news from Pakistan, the
forced evacuation of Western newsmen from Dacca on
27 March, and a breakdown of communications between
Dacca and the interior of the province combine to
make an assessment of the situation extremely dif-
ficult. Totally conflicting reports were issued
throughout the weekend by the Pakistan Goverz,ment
radio on the one hand and by the clandestine radio
operated on behalf of the secessionists on the other.
By yesterday, the government claimed that peace
had been re-established throughout East Pakistan al-
though it admitted that some disturbances had taken
place in Khulna, and the situation at Chittagong was
described as "improving and well under control."
The clandestine Free Bangla Radio, meanwhile, con-
tinued to report widespread fighting throughout East
Pakistan with the population rallying to the support
of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his Awami League.
The clandestine broadcasts continued to deny
that Mujib had been arrested and insisted that he
was at his headquarters in Chittagong. When the
formation of a provisional government of Bangla Desh
was announced yesterday, however, it was not Mujib,
the logical head of the new regime who allegedly
took over but rather a Major Zia Khan; the previous
day, he had been identified as the leader of the
Bengali "liberation army." This tends to confirm
earlier reports that the Awami League chieftain has
actually been in custody since early on 26 March.
The government in Islamabad has protested to
the US and British governments over the "tendentious
and untrustworthy" handling of news on events in
East Pakistan by the VOA and the BBC. Rumors are
circulating in West Pakistan that "outside powers"
29 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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have been involved in the independence movement in
the East Wing. Demonstrations against the US and
Britain could well develop.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani Government has lodged
a strong protest in New Delhi over.alleged Indian
interference in Pakistan's internal affairs. The
complaint, immediately rejected by the Indians, was
based on a discussion in the Indian parliament of
events in East Pakistan by Prime Minister Gandhi
and others, during which considerable sympathy for
the Bengalis was expressed. The Pakistanis also
protested the coverage of the conflict by the Indian
press and radio.
There is great interest in India in the situa-
tion in Pakistan, particularly in Calcutta and the
rest of the state of West Bengal where demonstrations
in support of. the East Pakistanis are being held.
Meanwhile, the Indian foreign secretary foresees vast
numbers of refugees, mostly Hindus, seeking admit-
tance into India from East Pakistan. He has warned
a US official that India will need assistance from
the international community in order to care for
them.
Dacca itself is relatively quiet. Curfews con-
tinue to be imposed at night but during the day large
throngs of refugees have been observed leaving the
city for the countryside. Eyewitnesses report that
large sections of the older and. poorer part of the
city have been destroyed, in some cases apparently
deliberately by the army. There are reports that.
the army is also attempting to pick up all Awami
League leaders, including recently elected members
of the national and provincial assemblies, as well
as student leaders and faculty members at the uni
versity. There is some evidence that a planned, pro-
gram of eliminating these and other opponents of the
regime is well unde,k way.
(continued)
29 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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The eventual effect of destroying the leadership
of the relatively moderate Awami League could be to
place the direction of future Bengali efforts toward
independence in the hands of more extreme political
parties. Although small at present, there exists in
East Pakistan a Communist organization closely pat-
terned on the extremist Naxalites who have recently
caused considerable havoc in the neighboring Indian
state of West Bengal.
29 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists apparently have
begun t eir 1ong-anticipated spring campaign in the
northern provinces of South Vietnam.
An enemy force in Quang Tin Province succeeded
in inflicting heavy casualties in an attack on a US
artillery base--dubbed Mary Ann--some 25 miles south-
west of Tam Ky early yesterday. Following a heavy
shelling, the base was temporarily overrun. Thirty-
three Americans were killed and another 78 were
wounded; 12 of the attackers were killed.
none of which caused serious casualties.
(Map)
The Communists probably will mount attacks
elsewhere as well, especially in the central high-
lands and near Da Nang. Early today, a heavy Com-
munist rocket and mortar arrage struck the airfield
at Da Nang and its environs causing light damage. ,
The North Vietnamese are also keeping up the pres-
sure on allied forces in the Khe Sanh region. There
were several shellings and ambushes over the weekend,
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LAOS: Sharp fighting was reported in several
sections of the country over the weekend, with the
most important action taking place near Luang Pra-
bang.
Government forces defending the royal capital
made several attempts to contest the Communists'
control of the high ground four miles east of town.
The threat of enemy artillery fire from this hill
mass has curtailed the use of Luang Prabang airport,
which lies between the high ground and the capital.
After two days of heavy fighting, irregular
units regained a former artillery position just south
of Ban Dan Cho on the afternoon of 28 March. Their
advance farther northward along Route 4 was blocked,
however, by sustained enemy mortar fire. A more am-
bitious effort to retake Phou Luang, a terrain high-
point seized by the Communists on 25 March, was
broken up by heavy enemy resistance and by misplaced
artillery fire that fell among the government troops.
Morale among military leaders in Luang Prabang
appears to be low. After examining the situation
there on 26 March, army chief of staff General Ouan
expressed doubt that the government could redress
recent Communist gains in the capital area--despite
growing reinforcements from other military regions.
The King apparently believes that the North Vietnam-
ese intend a siege of Luang Prabang and is concerned
about arranging airdrops of food and supplies. He
remains determined to stay in the capital.
Communist motives in the current fighting around
Luang Prabang remain uncertain. Their aim, at least
in part, may be to suppress use of the capital's
airfield as a military base. A siege of the town
seems improbable in view of the Communists' record
of desisting from actions against major population
centers. Nevertheless, the isolation of the capital
could be readily effected by closing Route 13 to the
south and by stopping civil as well as military air
traffic. F7
Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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CHINA-RECOGNITION: Peking and Kuwait will an-
nounce esta 1s:Rment of diplomatic relations to-
day.
The joint communique will state that Kuwait
recognizes the Peking regime as the "sole lawful gov-
ernment of China," a formula used in recognition an-
nouncements by Canada, Italy, and Chile, and which
has now become standard for all states previously
recognizing the Nationalist Chinese Government, As
a result, Taipei will immediately withdraw its am-
bassador from Kuwait. The Nationalists had briefly
considered authorizing their ambassador to remain in
place if the Kuwaitis would guarantee that Kuwait
would not demand that he leave, but this apparentl
was the result of misapprehensions 25X6
the wair-i oreign ministry declined to offer the neces-
sary assurances.
Taipei had hoped that by allowing its ambassador
to remain, Peking would be forced to accept either a
joint Communist-Nationalist presence in Kuwait or
the onus of demanding--perhaps unsuccessfully--that
Kuwait expel the Nationalist ambassador. This ploy
was attempted unsuccessfully in 1964, when France
recognized Peking. The Nationalists have avoided
any subsequent "humiliation" of this sort, but their
hesitation in the present instance suggests that
Taipei is casting about for ways of appearing less
inflexible on the recognition issue.
Meanwhile, a Communist Chinese "good will" del-
egation that arrived in Cameroon last week is engaged
in negotiating Cameroonian recognition of Peking, and
an announcement to this effect may be forthcoming
shortly, Kuwait is the seventh, and Cameroon will
be the eight country to recognize Peking since Can-
ada broke the ice last October.
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USSR: The 24th CPSU Congress that opens tomor-
row will probably last about ten days and will be
dominated by General Secretary Brezhnev, with Kosygin
and some other politburo members playing important
though lesser roles.
Precedent suggests that Brezhnev will open the
congress and preside over the nominations of the
various congress organs. Contrary to 1966, he will
then report on the politburo's stewardship over
party affairs since the last congress and the polit-
buro's assessment of domestic and foreign affairs.
This will be followed by the shorter and much less
important report of the central auditing commission,
which has nominal responsibility for auditing the
central committee treasury. In 1966, politburo mem-
bers Suslov and Podgorny, respectively, presided
during the presentation of these reports. The chair-
manship of the congress rotates more or less accord-
ing to rank within the politburo and the sequence at
this congress may provide some clue to the present
politburo pecking order.
Although the practice of allowing all politburo
members to speak during the congress was discontinued
at the 1966 conclave, discussion of these reports,
particularly Brezhnev's, will still occupy the con-
gress for five or six days. The discussion, which
will probably be opened by the first secretary of
the Moscow city party committee, will be dominated
by the first secretaries of republic and other im-
portant party organizations. Other speakers will
probably include Podgorny as chairman of the Pre-
sidium of the Supreme! Soviet, Shelepin as head of
the trade unions, and the ministers of defense and
foreign affairs.
The discussion of Brezhnev's report will be
interrupted periodically by representatives of im-
portant foreign Communist parties who will present
greetings to the CPSU. The proceedings of the 23rd
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Congress suggest that the number of such interrup-
tions will be small. After exhaustive discussion,
the congress will unanimously adopt a decree on
Brezhnev's report and approve the report of the
auditing commission.
At about mid-point in the congress, probably
with Brezhnev presiding, Kosygin will present the
draft directives for the five-year plan. The direc-
tives will be the subject of discussion, primarily
by various government officials, for three days,
again with a sprinkling of statements by representa-
tives of foreign Communist parties. The chairman
of the Ukrainian Council of Ministers will probably
open the discussion and be followed by his counter-
parts from other important republics and by high-
ranking planning officials.
Kosygin's speech concluding the discussion will
be followed by the election of the central committee,
which will then meet to elect the politburo and
secretariat. During the final session of the con-
gress, the delegates will unanimously adopt the
politburo report and the five-year plan. Brezhnev
will report on the results of the first plenum of
the newly elected central committee, including the
composition of the "new" politburo and secre
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UN - MARITIME ISSUES: The initial preparatory
meeting for the 1973 Law of the Sea conference has
produced mixed results and some initiatives trouble-
some to US objectives,.
The 1973 conference is expected to consider
such issues as territorial waters, rights of passage
through international straits, and regulations to
govern peaceful exploitation of the resources of the
ocean floor. The high stakes have focused consider-
able attention on the UN General Assembly's seabeds
committee, which is charged with planning the con-
ference. Although snarled for a time by procedural
hassles, the committee was able to complete its
nearly month-long work session on schedule on 26
March, having-made generally encouraging progress,
at least in identifying competing interests.
Latin American states with 200-mile claims to
territorial waters have obtained greater respect-
ability for their assertions, however. They were
particularly effective in gaining converts among
the less-developed coastal states to their view
that the major powers' fishing activity off such
nations must be curtailed by means of broad "ex-
clusive zones." Brazil also attacked the US pro-
posals for an international regime to control peace-
ful utilization of seabeds for commercial purposes
beyond a water depth of 200 meters. The interna-
tional community has yet to reach a consensus on
this controversial subiect.
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SIERRA LEONE
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SIERRA LEONE: Prime Minister Stevens, bolstered
by the arrival of more Guinean troops, forcefully
reasserted his authority in Freetown yesterday.
While the factionalized Sierra Leonean Army
debated the continuation of his civilian regime late
last week, Stevens arranged for immediate additional
troop support from his political ally, Guinean Pres-
ident Toure. An initial contingent of Guinean sol-
diers that arrived in Freetown on 19 March played a
key role in protecting Stevens during the unsuccess-
ful coup attempt by his army chief last week. Yes-
terday at least three truckloads of armed Guinean
troops dressed in civilian clothes drove into Sierra
Leone's capital and more may be en route. In a
morning radiobroadcast, Stevens announced that the
troops had come at his request in accordance with a
defense agreement just signed with Guinea. Stevens
implied that the Guineans. would be used to deal with
"dangerous elements" in his own army.
Stevens' injection of more Guinean soldiers
into Sierra Leone's latest internal political crisis
seems certain to erode further his domestic support,
particularly within his own army. No moves against
Stevens. or the Guinean troops have been reported
since the additional Guinean soldiers arrived, how-
ever. As of late yesterday there was no activity
at any of the army barracks in the Freetown area
and the city was quiet with Guineans guarding Ste-
vens' residence.
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y -l Villages'----'
reoccupied
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CAMBODIA: The Communists thwarted government
efforts over the weekend to reassert control over
Route 4 near Pich Nil Pass. A Cambodian Army armor
and infantry force that attempted to move toward
the pass from the east was pushed back by heavy
enemy mortar and ground fire on 26 March, leaving
the Communists astride a ten-mile section of the
roadway. Initial reports suggest that government
casualties and material losses may have been heavy.
At the same time, enemy forces have renewed attacks
on government troops at the north end of the pass
and also are reported to have surrounded other forces
farther south on Route 4 near Veal Renh. On 26
March, government forces reoccupied without opposi-
tion the three villages south of Veal Renh that
were overrun by the Communists late last week.
F__ I
BERLIN: No progress was made in the talks on
27 March between West Berlin Senat and GDR officials
on the issuing of Easter passes to West Berliners.
West Berlin hopes for an Easter agreement were
squelched when the East German negotiator rejected
an arrangement limited to the Easter holiday and
again proposed conclusion of a general agreement.
Senat Director Mueller reiterated that he is author-
ized only to discuss Easter visits. The meeting
broke off after four hours without se
for further talks.
(continued)
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