CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019000090001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 17, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N?. 040
17 May 1971
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No. 0117/71
17 May 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
LAOS: Government forces in the Bolovens Plateau
suffer severe setback. (Page 1)
EGYPT: Cairo remains untroubled four days after
the purge. (Page 3)
INDIA-PAKISTAN: India protests the heavy flow of
refugees from East Pakistan. (Page 5)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking accelerates its efforts to
improve relations with Southeast Asian countries.
(Page 6)
VENEZUELA: Student demonstrations. (Page 7)
USSR: Submarine tender may be heading for Cuba
Page 8)
ECUADOR: Army officers reassigned (Page 8)
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Communist Gains on the Bolovens Plateau
8an Nape
Pass
avan ak et
eng Kok
Mu Gia
Pass
Ban Kara,
APass
Government
blocking position
CAMBODIA
aan-
Phak
Koat
?Government-held position SCommunist-held position
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LAOS: The Communists have inflicted a severe
setback on government forces in the Bolovens Plateau.
In a series of sharp coordinated attacks on
16 May, the Communists forced the government to
abandon a number of strategically located bases in
the heart of the plateau. Among the positions lost
were Ban Houei Sai, which guarded the northern ap-
proaches to the plateau, and Ban Phak Kout, whose
loss cuts land access to Paksong town via Route 23.
So far, no attack has been reported against Ban
Houei Kong, the last major irregular base on the
plateau, but Communist troops have been seen in the
vicinity.
Communist troops have entered Paksong itself,
and at last report the government defenders had
abandoned nearby positions. Reinforcements are be-
ing moved in from Pakse and a training site in Thai-
land to establish blocking positions at the junction
of Routes 23 and 231A. This is the first time the
Communists have hit Paksong, the largest population
center on the Bolovens, although for several years
it has been cited as a possible target.
The Bolovens had been relatively quiet since
February and March, when the Communists forced gov-
ernment irregulars to abandon bases on the eastern
rim that were overlooking the Se Kong infiltration
corridor. A renewed offensive has been expected
for several weeks, but government commanders thought
there might be further delays because of recent
Pathet Lao defections in the area.
The current drive is the latest phase of a
general campaign in the Bolovens area that began
in 1968, when the Communists re-entered the Se Done
Valley and cut off the provincial capital of Sara-
vane. Since then, the Communists have taken Sara-
vane, Attopeu, and other government positions around
the edge of the plateau while eroding the govern-
ment's once firm control of the Bolovens itself.
(continued)
17 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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It is still too early to tell whether the pres-
ent Bolovens offensive is part of a developing wider
offensive in south Laos. Reinforced Communist units
have been increasingly active along Route 9, where
they are currently threatening the government towns
of Dong Hene and Keng Kok. Such an offensive presum-
ably would be designed to drive government troops
farther from the Communists' infiltration corridor,
perhaps as a belated response to irregular harass-
ment operations during Lam Son 719.
The coincidence of the attacks in the south
with the recent Communist cease-fire proposal raises
the possibility that a southern offensive would have
political objectives as well. The Communists might
hope that a threat in the south would increase pres-
sure on the government to negotiate on Communist
terms. The short-term effect, however, is likel
to be just the opposite.
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EGYPT: The atmosphere in Cairo. four days after
the purge remains untroubled, and President Sadat
still appears to have. the situation well in hand.
Reportedly all of the principals who were dis-
missed--as well as a number of members of the Arab
Socialist Union, Egypt's nominal political party,
and lesser government officials--have been jailed
or placed under house arrest. With his swift action
Sadat has squelched any countermoves from his oppo-
nents, and his position, at least in the short run,
appears to have been strengthened. The opening of
investigations by the attorney general yesterday
tends to confirm earlier indications that Sadat in-
tends to bring to trial some of those who were de-
posed.
War Minister Sadiq's prompt pledge of the mil-
itary's support suggests that Sadat had the tacit
blessing of the armed forces before his decisive
moves last Thursday. One of the purposes of his
trip to the canal zone on 11-12 May may have been
to ensure the indispe sable backing of his key com-
mand level officers. Senior police officials, whose
former chief was the eposed minister of interior
Goma, have also pledged their allegiance to Sadat.)
Meanwhile, in the past few days Egyptian of-
ficials have held a round of meetings with leaders
and representatives of several Arab states, presum-
ably for the purpose of briefing them on the latest
changes. Sudan and Syria have issued statements
of solidarity with the new Egyptian Government. In
Tel Aviv, Israeli Defense Minister Dayan assessed
developments in Egypt as "very significant" but
added that he did not believe that the upheaval
was related to Cairo's policy toward Israel. The
Soviet press has carried a factual account of the
situation without comment.
There is no evidence to support press reports
that Moscow has suspended military and economic
assistance to Cairo or that it has recalled merchant
17 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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ships en route to Alexandria with military cargoes.
Soviet seaborne military deliveries to Egypt during
April and thus far in May have been steady, although
below the February and March totals. During the
earlier months, the Soviets were engaged in deliver-
ing additional advanced equipment to improve further
Egypt's air defenses, and it is not unusual to see
military shipping slacken off after a period of
heightened activity.
17 May 71
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: India has issued a strong new
protest to Pakistan over the heavy flow of refugees
from East Pakistan.
In a note to the Pakistani high commissioner
on 14 May, India reserved the right to claim "full
satisfaction" from Pakistan for the costs of caring
for the refugees. An Indian spokesman claimed that
the number of refugees arriving in India has climbed
to 100,000 a day and that the total has now reached
2.6 million.
In addition to its concern that caring for so
many refugees will severely tax its resources, India
may be worried that the refugee camps will become
centers of discontent vulnerable to leftist agita-
tion, thereby aggravating the already serious problem
posed by Naxalite extremists in eastern India. The
government is also worried that conflict may develop
between the refugees and local inhabitants over the
lowering of wage rates and the disruption of normal
services.
Meanwhile, discussion is continuing on repatria-
tion of the Indian and Pakistani deputy high commis-
sion staffs in Dacca and Calcutta. The Swiss, whose
good offices have been accepted by both sides, be-
lieve the issue will soon be resolved. A Swiss
Embassy officer in New Delhi told a US official on
15 May that many details remained to be worked out,
but that some "common minimum ground" had been
established.
17 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking is accelerating its
efforts to improve relations with Southeast Asian
countries.
The recent warm reception of a Malaysian trade
delegation in Peking, which included a meeting with
Premier Chou En-lai, is the latest evidence that
the Chinese intend to improve their relationship
with that country. The visit follows several months
of diplomatic gesturing by both Kuala Lumpur and
Peking. Chinese handling. of. the affair--including
the use of the term Malaysia without quotes for the
first time in official media--suggests Peking's im-
plicit acceptance of the legitimacy of the almost
eight-year-old federation, which it had previously
denied.
The Chinese have also recently shown an in-
terest in bettering their relations with the Philip-
pines. A private Filipino trade delegation was
also received by Chou in Peking last week,
Peking extended typhoon relief aid to t e
Philippines last November and is refraining from
direct attacks on President Marcos in its official
media.
Peking's recent actions in regard to these
countries are undoubtedly designed to capitalize
on awakened interest in Communist China resulting
from Peking's diplomatic efforts elsewhere, in
particular from developments in Sino-US relations.
According to a Chinese vice minister of foreign
affairs, the Chinese would welcome diplomatic rela-
tions, trade, or cultural exchanges with a number
of Southeast Asian countries. Peking does not ex-
pect sudden, dramatic results, but probably hopes
to create a favorable "China mood" in Southeast
Asian countries not recognizing Peking and, through
signs of good neighborliness, to put. anti-Pekin
hard-liners on the defensive.
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VENEZUELA: Student demonstrations broke out
again last week and developed into widespread riot-
ing; at least one person was killed, and there were
numerous injuries and arrests.
Most of the demonstrators seem to be motivated
by a general discontent with the educational system.
Outside agitators--most of them extreme leftists--
are attempting to take advantage of this discontent
to increase their influence with the students and to
encourage polarization of the political environment.
The government's tolerant policy toward the
demonstrators has been strongly criticized by mili-
tary and other elements. If the demonstrations con-
tinue, President Caldera will be under increasing
pressure from the military to permit them to move
against the ringleaders.
17 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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USSR: A Soviet submarine tender currently some
500 miles southwest of the Canary Islands appears to
be heading toward the Caribbean and could arrive in
Cuba late this week. The tender has been in the
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ECUADOR: President Velasco's reassignment of
65 army officers indicates his continuing doubts
about the reliability of support from his armed
forces. All unit officers in the parachute battal-
ion that supported the abortive move against the
government in March were transferred. Velasco's
ability,to effect the reassignments shows that he
still commands some support in the military's higher
ranks. His latest moves, however, are likely to
create a further uneasiness at lower levels that
will begin to chip away at the military's residual
loyalty and the lethargy that thus far have helped
to maintain the five-time President in power.
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