CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019300010001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 12, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Secret
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No. 0140/71
12 June 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
LAOS: Military situation. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Government forces have suffered reverses
south of Phnom Penh. (Page 3)
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: East Pakistan's call for all refu-
gees to return is unlikely to change the situation
greatly. (Page 6)
USSR-INDIA-PAKISTAN: Moscow speaks out against the
situation in East Pakistan. (Page 7)
PAKISTAN: Government recalls the two highest de-
nomination notes. (Page 9)
CEYLON-USSR: Soviet advisers on their way home.
(Page 10)
EAST GERMANY: Central Committee plenum prepares
for party congress. (Page 11)
FRANCE: Submarine-launched ballistic missile system.
Page 13)
BRAZIL: Arming of US fishermen (Page 14)
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MALTA: Parliamentary elections (Page 15)
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Plateau
an Houei
Kong
CAMBQthA
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Paksong
3overnment
forming Solovens
defensive
position
? Communist held location
? Government held location
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LAOS: The North Vietnamese are continuing to
batter elements of a government task force on the
western edge of the Bolovens Plateau, but government
air strikes have eased the situation somewhat.
Yesterday morning, North Vietnamese Army units
supported by four tanks overran the Lao Army task
force command post, capturing three 105-mm. artil-
lery pieces. Four government battalions that had
been in positions to the east of the command post
were scattered and apparently suffered heavy casual-
ties. By noon on 11 June the most forward army po-
sition along Route 23 was about 15 miles east of
Pakse. It was manned by one irregular company,
which reportedly was encircled and under attack.
Tactical air support for the task force, previously
limited by bad weather, relieved some of the pres-
sure on government units later in the day. Air
strikes reportedly caused substantial North Viet-
namese casualties and damaged at least two tanks.
The government is trying to form new defensive
positions along Route 23 and at the junction of
Routes 23 and 231, just west of the plateau. Two
regular army battalions and two battalions of ir-
regulars have been brought in as reinforcements and
to try to locate and relieve the cut-off units.
Elements of these dispersed units were beginning to
filter back to friendly positions, but no estimate
of casualties is yet available.
These government units constitute all of the
mobile reserve force in Military Region 4. They
could probably slow any North Vietnamese advance
westward off the Bolovens Plateau, if indeed the
North Vietnamese are tempted by the ease with which
they have scattered the government's forces to move
in that direction. Before the current government
operation, however, the North Vietnamese had seemed
content to consolidate their recent gains on the
Bolovens.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Kb'rppong Sorn
Pursat'
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Prek
~Tamea Kompong
Enemy haras ackS hamiang
earl ~..------ - .,
PHNOM PEN
H `'v
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CAMBODIA: The Communists have inflicted re-
verses on government forces south of Phnom Penh,
while keeping the pressure on government positions
northeast of the capital.
In a series of coordinated attacks on 10 June,
the enemy attacked Cambodian Army (FANK) units at
Srang and Slap Leng, some 25 to 30 miles southwest
of Phnom Penh. The FANK battalion defending Srang
was forced to withdraw temporarily to Tram Khnar,
on Route 3, but subsequently reoccupied the town
without meeting any serious opposition. The situa-
tion at Slap Leng is confused, but at last report
the three FANK battalions in that village apparently
had retreated to the north. Although no confirmed
casualty figures are as yet available, initial re-
ports indicate that government losses total 40
killed, 41 wounded, and almost 600 missing.
It is possible that the Communists may now
move against FANK forces trying to clear a section
of nearby Route 3. Those forces reportedly have
been weakened recently by large-scale desertions,
plus the withdrawal of several battalions to rein-
force positions northeast of Phnom Penh.
In the latter area, the government still has
its hands full of Communists. The enemy made three
attacks against Kompong Ampil on 11 June, but the
two FANK battalions there managed to stand their
ground. The Communists also harassed FANK forces
at Kompong Chamlang, Vihear Suor, and Prek Tameak.
No casualties have as yet been reported.
The Cambodians apparently are planning to send
several battalions assigned to the Mekong Defense
Command up the river to help relieve enemy pressure
on Kompong Chamlang and Kompong Ampil. In addition,
two or three battalions are to make a diversionary
move south from the Tang Kouk area on Route 6 to-
ward the Mekong. These tactics evidently were dic-
tated, at least in part, by Saigon's refusal of a
government request for South Vietnamese troops to
carry out a diversionary operation in the northeast.
(continued)
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The operation reportedly is being conducted
under the orders of Lon Nol, who appears to be
taking personal command of the campaign to dislodge
the Communists in the northeastern sector of the
Phnom Penh military region. It is not clear how
hard or long the prime minister is now working, but
he apparently has cut short his convalescence in
Kompong Som. There has been fear that even a par-
tial resumption of his duties could lead to another
stroke.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: The East Pakistan government's
call on 10 June for all refugees to return is un-
likely to have a major impact on the situation in
the near future.
The Pakistani press claimed the government
plans to put six refugee reception centers into op-
eration today. Limited numbers of refugees may re-
turn but more will continue to enter India. As many
as 1,000 refugees may have recrossed the border into
East Pakistan, motivated by fear of cholera and
starvation in the overcrowded camps as well as by
the local Indian population's growing hostility.
New refugees are still entering India at the
rate of 60,000 to 100,000 a day, and now total nearly
six million. Many are reluctant to leave the over-
crowded camps in the border areas, but New Delhi is
nevertheless making arrangements to disperse two-
and-a-half million refugees to "temporary" homes in
five more remote and less congested states. Radical
Communists, anxious to discredit the government, are
already working to exploit tension in the Calcutta
area refugee centers. Cholera is now under control
in most of the camps; the chances that the epidemic
will continue to decline are improving in part be-
cause the local strain is less virulent than that
found in other parts of the world.
International relief efforts, which the Indians
have characterized as "sluggish," are beginning to
pick up. Foreign Minister Swaran Singh, now on a
foreign tour, has expressed satisfaction with his
talks thus far with leaders in Moscow and Bonn about
the refugee crisis. The Indians estimate that they
can provide shelter for the refugees for the next
six months, but the situation will be potentially
explosive for at least that long.
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USSR-INDIA-PAKISTAN: The USSR has again spoken
out critically a out West Pakistan's handling of the
situation in the East wing.
In two recent statements, the Soviets express
their concern about the "grave situation" resulting
from the flow of millions of East Pakistani refugees
into India. A joint communique issued at the end of
Indian Foreign Minister Singh's visit to the USSR
and an election speech by Premier Kosygin on 9 June
call for prompt measures to stop the flow of refu-
gees and urge that proper conditions be created with-
out delay so that they can return home safely.
On 3 April, the Soviets made public a letter
from President Podgorny to Pakistani President Yahya
that was strongly critical of Yahya's resort to
force in East Pakistan. Until the most recent state-
ments, however, Moscow had confined itself to behind-
the-scenes efforts to moderate Indian and Pakistani
actions.
The USSR's decision to speak out again reflects
its concern that the situation is deteriorating rap-
idly. The Soviets probably hope that their public
criticism of Pakistani policy will put further pres-
sure on Yahya to move rapidly toward some form of
accommodation with the East wing. More importantly,
however, the Soviets are probably concerned that In-
dia might follow through on its threats to take
drastic action if the international community is
not sufficiently responsive to its pleas for aid in
coping with the refugees. Plans are already far ad-
vanced for the delivery of the initial Soviet aid
contribution of 50,000 tons of rice and 100 million
doses of smallpox vaccine. The Soviets have also
sent four planes to help the Indians transport the
refugees away from the volatile frontier areas.
The latest criticism of Pakistani policy is
likely to do some short-term harm to the USSR's po-
sition in Pakistan. The Soviets recognize this,
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however, and are trying to keep the damage to a mini-
mum by carrying on bilateral relations on a business-
as-usual basis. For example, Moscow swiftly announced
a replacement for its retiring ambassador in Islam-
abad and continues to work steadily on its $200-mil-
lion steel mill project.
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PAKISTAN: The recall of the two highest denom-
ination notes from circulation, although certain to
result in a windfall to the government from tax pen-
alties and invalidation of illegal holdings, is
causing some economic dislocations in the meantime.
The 100 and 500 rupee notes demonetized account
for nearly 60 percent of the total value of currency
outstanding. Commercial activities are reported to
be at a near standstill in West Pakistan because
all stock exchanges and most bazaars are closed and
many people do not have enough legal currency to
meet their daily needs. Banks until yesterday were
open only to accept the recalled notes. Reimburse-
ment for small holdings will take at least three to
seven days, but it could take months for those ten-
dering large amounts for exchange.
The effects of the demonetization in East Pak-
istan have not yet been reported. In neighboring
Afghanistan, merchants and money changers are fran-
tically seeking ways to convert their holdings of
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CEYLON-USSR: Soviet advisers sent to Ceylon
in April to train Ceylonese personnel on the use and
maintenance of Soviet-supplied military equipment
are on their way home.
According to the US defense attache in Colombo,
all but one of the Soviet helicopter pilots and
maintenance personnel have departed Ceylon and all
the MIG pilots and technicians will leave in about
two weeks. About 65 Soviet advisers and technicians
were sent to assemble and test the equipment--five
MIG-17s, one MIG-15 trainer, and two KA-26 helicop-
ters--and to train Ceylonese Air Force personnel.
The departure of Soviet personnel may reflect
the completion of the conversion training program.
Ceylon has about ten pilots qualified to fly the
British. jet Provost trainer and at least some of
these pilots were trained to fly the MIG-17s.
The Soviets probably are leaving at Ceylonese
request. Prime Minister Bandaranaike undoubtedly
opposes a continued Soviet presence and reportedly
has asked them to leave within two weeks. Moreover,
most of the people sent by other countries to help
Ceylon in quelling the insurgency have departed.
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EAST GERMANY: The East German regime held a
pre-congress plenum on 10 June to finish plans and
set the agenda for the eighth party congress sched-
uled to convene next week.
The terse announcement following the session
said only that the draft of the central committee
report to the congress and the new five-year eco-
nomic plan were discussed. The East Germans can
be expected to solicit support at the congress from
their allies for international recognition of the
German Democratic Republic and for reassurances
that they will take into account Pankow's interests
in their responses to Bonn's attractive Ostpolitik.
The Soviets will probably take pains particularly
to reassure the East Germans that their interests
are being protected at the Four-Power talks in Ber-
lin. Additional cadre changes intended to strengthen
Honecker's hand also may be announced.
All Warsaw Pact secretaries, with the exception
of Romania's Ceausescu, who is touring the Far East,
probably will attend the congress.
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FRANCE: The submarine-launched ballistic mis-
sile system evidently will be operational within
the next few months.
According to French press reports, the Gymnote
experimental submarine--which has been the test
platform for underwater launches of the missiles
since November 1968--completed its test program in
early May and will undergo a major overhaul at Cher-
bourg until late next year. In addition, the Re-
doutable, the first of a planned fleet of five nu-
clear powered ballistic-missile submarines, report-
edly began its operational missile testing program
with a successful submerged launch on 29 May. The
Redoutable is expected to become operational as soon
as the current series of missile firings is com-
pleted.
The French have conducted about 20 test firings
of the submarine missile since two-stage testing be-
gan in January 1968.
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NOTES
BRAZIL: A potentially serious incident could
result from the arming of US fishermen operating
within waters claimed by Brazil. The captains of
US shrimp trawlers working inside the 200-mile
limit, angered by very low-altitude overflights by
Brazilian aircraft, have asked a trawler coming
from Georgetown, Guyana to bring them arms. The
owner of the boat says that guns were put on the
trawler without his knowledge and that it has al-
ready departed for. Brazilian waters. So far Brazil
has only warned foreign boats fishing within the
200-mile zone to leave, but the navy has instruc-
tions to take "appropriate action" against any
violating boat if it encounters resistance.
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(continued)
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MALTA: The outcome of this weekend's parlia-
mentary elections may affect Malta's attitude to-
ward the use of its port and air facilities by NATO
countries under the UK-Maltese defense and financial
agreements which expire in 1974. The opposition
Labor Party of Dom Mintoff is less receptive to a
Western alignment than the Nationalist party of
Prime Minister Borg-Olivier, although Mintoff's
earlier stated goal of "positive neutrality" has
been blurred in the hard-fought campaign. Mintoff,
who lately has been emphasizing the need for "ade-
quate" compensation for use of any facility, may
clarify his position after indications as to who
won the elections are available on 16 or 17 June.
The election will be very close, although informed
observers in Malta at this time give a slight edge
to Mintoff's party.
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