CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019500010001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 8, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For lease 2003/04/18: CIA-RDP79T0097 195SeG 4
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Ventral Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N?. 041
8 July 1971
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4
 Approved FoJelease 2003 114' IA-RDP79T009 019500010001-4
No. 0162/71
8 July 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
EAST PAKISTAN: Prospects of a serious famine are
increasing. (Page 1)
IRAN: Tomorrow's elections are expected to produce
no surprises. (Page 2)
JAPAN: Dollar inflows (Page 3)
GUINEA - COMMUNIST CHINA: Delivery of military
equipment (Page
Approved For Release 2003/:WWWWDP79T00975A019500010001-4
 Approved For Lase 2003/04/18CCIA-IP79T00975'19500010001-4
EAST PAKISTAN: Prospects of a serious famine
in the coming months are increasing.
Reports from officials of US government and
international agencies in East Pakistan are becoming
more ominous. Rice production estimates for the
crop year that ended last month have been revised
downward to about 11 million tons compared with 12
million tons in the previous year. Projections for
the current crop year are for only 9.5 million tons,
indicating a food deficit of about 3.4 million tons.
Even if imports of this magnitude could be
arranged, East Pakistan does not have the port.fa-
cilities to handle them. It is unlikely that as
much as two million tons can be moved through the
distribution system. The ports are still operating
far below capacity because port storage facilities
are full and continuing disruptions of the internal
transport system are hampering movement of foodgrains
to the interior.
Much of the foodgrains reaching the people may
have to be distributed free rather than through reg-
ular commercial channels because purchasing power is
very low. Many cannot afford to buy the food that
is available as a result of the closure of most fac-
tories and commercial establishments and the inter-
ruption of the rural works program, which normally
employs several million landless laborers. Pakistan's
recent demonitization of its two largest denomination
notes has also contributed to rural cash shortages.
The military governor is publicly denying danger
of famine, but the chairman of the government's food
relief committee has privately admitted "there will
be famine." East Pakistani civil officials, demor-
alized as a result of'repression by the military and
afraid to approach the military governor with the
problem, are doing little to avert the famine.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4
 Approved Fc Release 2003/ NR' A=RDP79T00975i4019500010001-4
IRAN: Tomorrow's elections to the Majlis
(National Assembly) and the Senate are expected
to produce no surprises.
At stake are all of the 268 seats in the as-
sembly and 30 elected Senate seats. Thirty other
senators are appointed by the Shah. The ruling
Iran Novin Party will probably retain most of its
85-percent majority, but may lose a few seats to
the "loyal opposition" Mardom Party and the newly
organized Iranians Party. The xenophobic Pan Iran-
ists will probably field no candidates and become
moribund.
All candidates must be approved by the Shah
who, in some cases, will select opposition candi-
dates for election to ensure at least a semblance
of a two-party system. The new Majlis will prob-
ably contain more women and younger members than
the previous assembly, reflecting the Shah's desire
to give a more progressive appearance to the par-
25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4
 SEC~:F~-'
Approved Fort?~fease 2003/04/18 : CI DP79T00975S19500010001-4
NOTES
JAPAN: Dollar flows into Japan declined con-
sidera-during the last full week in June, but
this is not likely to relieve pressure for yen
revaluation. Inflows totaled $109 million, about
one-third the average weekly level since hedging
and speculation against the yen began in earnest
in early May. Nevertheless, the level is well
above the weekly average of $23 million recorded
last year. Over-all inflows for June came to over
$1 billion, thereby increasing Japan's reserves to
GUINEA - COMMUNIST CHINA: A Chinese freighter
reply--has delivered almost 1,500 tons of mili-
tary equipment to Conakry for distribution to the
Guinean armed forces, to anti-Portuguese forces in
Guinea, and to the Malian Army. The delivery fol-
lowed closely the visit in late May of a Chinese
military delegation to both countries and may have
been designed as an additional good-will gesture.
A Guinean military delegation is now in Peking
probably working out the details of a military
agreement discussed earlier. Although the Chinese
are seeking to develop closer ties with Guinea, it
is unlikely that they will supplant the USSR as
Guinea's main source-of military assistance. I
8 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975A019500010001-4
 SeCrWroved Fo Iease 2003/04/18: CIA-RDP79T0097019500010001-4
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19500010001-4