CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019500080001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 16, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Dept. review completed
N?_ 04~
16 Ju1~r 19.71
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No. 0169/71
16 Jul~_197.1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
C~NZ'ENT S
COMMUNIST CHINA - U5: Chinese bid for expansion of
in irect tra e. Page 1)
USSR-U5: .Mack Trucks negotiations break off. {Page 2)
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BOLIVIA-CUBA-CHILE: Bolivia may be preparing to
resume ~.p omat~c relations with Cuba and Chile.
(Page 4 )
UGANDA: Undisciplined army troubles government.
Page. 5)
YEMEN (SANA): Communist countries demand debt re-
payments . Page 6 )
COMMUNIST CHINA: Military men continue to be awarded
~.g government posts. (Page 7)
AFRICA: Cholera continues to spread relentlessly.
Page- 8 )
USSR-SINGAPORE: First Soviet warship visit (Page 10)
COMMUNIST CHINA - TURKEY: Diplomatic relations
Page 1
IRAN: Additional oil revenue (Page 11)
ARAB STATES - MOROCCO: Sadat-Qadhafi meet (Page ll)
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COMMUNIST CHINA - US; Since the US relaxation
of rest~r ctions on tra~.e with Communist China last
month the Chinese have indicated that they will wel-
come an expansion of indirect Sino-US trade.
Although Peking has--made it clear that the.
Taiwan question will continue to inhibit direct trade
with the U5, the Chinese recently have increased
their imports of US goods through foreign firms and
have approached foreign exporters with the U5 market
in mind. China has maintained that such trade is
desirable as long as Peking is not officially in-
formed of the US nationality of the supplier. or cus-
tomer.
The Chinese have made their views known to for-
eign visitors and through their commercial represent-
atives in Hong. Kong, who reportedly have been advised
to establish companies to trade with the US on an un-
official basis. It is not clear, however, whether
this move has received fina]_ approval from Peking.
China is also said to be considering allowing a small
number of American company officials to attend the
Canton trade fair this fall. It is questionable
whether these businessmen would be permitted to en-
aaae in trade or would be rE:stricted to "observer"
Central Intelli?;ence Bulletin
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='USSR-US: Mack Trucks has broken off negotia-
tions`with the Soviets for participation in the Kama
Truck Plant, the largest single construction project
of the current five-year plan.
The US firm takes the position that the Soviet
approach to the project is at odds with the methods
employed by US industry and that the time schedule
proposed by the Soviets is unrealistic. Under a
recent protocol, Mack Trucks had been prepared to
assume substantial engineering and management respon-
s.ibilities for designing and equipping the Kama plant.
Future negotiations cannot be ruled out if the So-
viets are willing to modify their requirements. Po-
tential Soviet expenditures with Mack Trucks and
other US firms for the project have been estimated
in the range of $140-$200 million.
Protracted difficulties in obtaining Western
technical and financial assistance will almost cer-
tainly delay the completion date of the Kama complex
from 1974 to the end of 1976 at the earliest. Moscow
is almost certain to suspect that Washington is in
some degree responsible for the Mack decision_
16 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
BOLIVIA-CUBA-CHILE: Bolivia may be moving to-
ward resumption of diplomatic relations with Cuba
and Chile.
Extreme leftist labor and student groups a:re
demanding restoration of ties with Cuba. The na-
tional labor confederation has warned that if the
government fails to act by 26 duly, workers will
send their own ambassadors "to maintain relations
with the Cuban people."
The Bolivian foreign minister has stated that
a Bolivian-Cuban rapprochement depends on political,
economic, and other circumstances. Castro has
praised the "revolutionary process" under way in
Bolivia and expressed his confidence in the Bolivian
people, but so far only the Chilean and Peruvian
governments have been endorsed by Havana. Torres
may be looking for a public statement that could be
interpreted as approval of his government. Pressure
from the "popular forces" could cause Torres to make
t:he first public overture, but it may also prov3_de
him with an excuse when he feels the time is right
t:o act.
Although there is considerable interest con-
cerning the resumption of Bolivian-Chilean diplo-
matic relations in both countries, the issue of
Bolivia's desire for an outlet to the sea at Chi.le`s
expense has thus far proven an insurmountable ob-
stacle.
Torres has stated publicly his interest in
maintaining diplomatic and commercial relations
with all countries, based on "t:he principle of self-
determination." Re-establishment of diplomatic re-
lations with Chile after a nine-year break could
help ease tensions dating back almost a century.
Renewal of ties with Cuba would be consistent with
the current trend of Bolivian foreign policy: "in-
dependence from the US" in world affairs and the
expansion of contacts with the Cnmmuni Gt wrirlr~
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UGANDA: The government continues to be trou-
bled by an increasingly tri.balized and undisciplined
army ,
During the past few wE:eks, serious incidents
of fighting among troops h~~ve taken place at several
military posts, the most recent clash occurring early
this week at a major camp about 50 miles from Kam-
pala~ the capital.. The violence is sparked by the
persistent hostility betweE:n President Amin's fellow
West Nile-troops and northern soldiers who were the
source of much of ex-President Obote's support.
Since-the military government seized power last
January, West Nile troops have been taking advantage
of their new-found dominance to settle long-standing
differences. Many northerners, particularly Acholi
and Lango tribesmen, have been killed, beaten, in-
discriminately arrested, or detained. The govern-
ment haS admitted that 670 officers and enlisted men
have been killed in recent months, but it attributes
the losses to border encounters with pro-Obote guer-
rillas infiltrating from Tanzania. Most observers
discount this explanation, however.
General-Amin has thus far done little to im-
pose discipline on the army and in particular on-his
fellow West Nilers. As a result, the army command
structure appears to be deteriorating, and some
local commanders are reportedly exercising complete
authority in their areas. There is also some con-
cern that infra-army clashes may now spread .to the
respective tribal areas, thereby worsening the a1-
re~.dy touchy domestic security situation.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YEMEN (SANA): Several Communist countries ap-
parent~y ar`e eCemanding that Yemen begin making debt
repayments, further complicaking its shaky financial
position.
The USSR and East Germany have made a coordi-
nated move to ut economic r i
Government Early
this month, a ovie a assa or in ana emanded
that Yemen begin making repayments an its debts to
the-USSR estimated between $50 and $60 million. A
few-days later, the East Germans demanded repayment
on its loans and Yugoslavia, probably motivated pri-
marily by a desire to recover its loan, followed
suit. This is the first known instance of Communist
countries coordinating their actions in debt ;prob-
lems with less developed countries.
16 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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COMMUNIST CHINA: Another military man has been
forma y assigns to a high government post.
The recent identification of a farmer regional
military officer, Li Yao-wen, as vice minister of
:Foreign affairs marks the first .time that an army ._
man has-been given a specific post in the Foreign
Ministry, although a number of military men have
accompanied ministry officials at government func-
tions during the past three years.. Army careerists
have been awarded top posts in at least four other.
ministries in the past six months, and. it appears
that no-civil unit in the central hierarchy will be
:Free of direct military influence as a result of
the ;Sweeping reorganization under way in the wake
of the Cultural Revolution.
Staffing the revamped government apparatus has
been a prolonged and controversial process. In
particular,-uncertainty over the impact of this
:Lnfusion of military administrators on the opera-
lion of China's central-bureaucracy may bs contrib-
uting to the delay in convening the long-awaited
National People's Congress--the civil government
counterpart of the national party congress held
two years ago.
In any case, the effectiveness of these rela-
tively inexperienced soldier-bureaucrats will de-
Pend heavily on their ability eventually to estab-
:Lish smooth working relationships with the. growing
~zumber of returning civilian specialists, many of
whom may tend to regard their military overseers
as an unwelcome encumbrance and, possibly, as men-
acing ideological watchdogs.
:16 Jul 7l
Central Intelligence .Bulletin
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AFRICA: Serious cholera outbreaks continue to
occur i-'ri w dely scattered areas of the continent.
The latest reports come from Chad, Sudan,~and
Morocco,,/ while cases continue to be reported from
countries that had been infected earlier, such as
Kenya and Uganda.. The seriousness of the situation
has genex'ated a wave of rumors and scares in neigh-
boring countries, as well as a series of border
closings intended to confine the spread of -the dis-
ease. Authorities in most countries have moved
.quickly to cordon off infected areas, administer
mass vaccinations-, and treat -the victims, but it
appears likely that there will be further outbreaks.
Chadian authorities have had to deal with a full-
fledged epidemic since the first cases were reported
there in mid-May. Cases now total some 7,500 with
over 2,300 deaths, but officials admit privately
that many more cases and deaths have gone unreported.
The rate of infection in the original areas north
and west of Fort Lamy has dropped sharply in the
face of mass inoculations and other measures made
possibly by a heavy influx of French and other for-
eign assistance. New cases are now being reported
in other areas, however, especially in the eastern
section of the country bordering Sudan.
.,Sudan itself has had cholera in the south for
some time, but cases--possibly as many as 40 per
day--are now occurring in.Khartoum, and there are
indications of cases farther north as .well. Sudanese
officials deny the presence of cholera anywhere in
the country, but admit to an "acute health crisis"
caused by what they describe as "gastritis...which
may result in death in less than five hours." Health
authorities have started an inoculation campaign
against "summer diseases," but have apparently not
instituted any other measures.
?In Morocco, authorities moved quickly in an
effort to prevent the disease from spreading after
it was first reported in Nador, an eastern maritime?
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.province, but outbreaks seem likely to occur else-
where in the country nevertheless. Morocco is the
first Mediterranean littora:L country to be infected
this year, and the proximity of the Spanish-held
port of Melilla, from where a ferry service operates
to ports in southern Spain, raises the danger of the
disease. moving to Europe.`~f
Although the current outbreaks appear sporadic
and random in nature, the disease is nevertheless
following a generally predictable geographic pattern
in its steady spread. Outbreaks in major population
centers, such as Khartoum, are particularly alarming
as this could lead to a much quicker and widespread
distribution of the disease.
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NOTES
USSR-SINGAPORE: The first Soviet warship to
visit Singapore anchored there early yesterday. The
Kotlin-class destroyer and an accompanying naval
oiler had been deployed in the Indian Ocean and
were returning to home waters. A Soviet shipping
delegation recently met with Singapore authorities,
but there have been no indications that any arrange-
ment was reached covering the future use of Singa-
pore's shipyard facilities by Soviet commerc;al ~,~
military ships.
COMMUNIST CHINA - TURKEY: Ankara may be stalling
in its talks with Peking on establishing diplomatic
relations. A Foreign Ministry official has confirmed
the substance of a recent Turkish magazine article
disclosing that the negotiations are stalemated over
the future of Turkish relations with Nationalist China.
Ankara apparently wants more time in which to observe
developments elsewhere on the issue of Chinese recogni-
tion. They are particularly interested in President
Nixon's impending China statement on the recognition
issue, and also wish to keep in step with Iran, which
has slowed the pace of its talks with Peking. It seems
likely that relations will nevertheless be established
before the next session of the UN General AGaPmhiV_
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continued)
16 Jul 71 Central Intelli~enee Bulletin
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IRAN: The Shah appears to be the winner in the
current round of negotiations for additional revenue
from the Western-Oil Consortium outside the framework
of the five- ear OPEC settlement.
the Consortium has agree o mee
Iranian amen s for payment of port dues, compensa-
tion-for losses sustained from oil barter deals be-
cause of increased posted prices, and for payments
connected with ail supplies for the Abadan Refinery.
As a result Iran could recei?ve an additional $24
million in revenue this year. Although small com-
pared with the $400 million added revenue from the
OPEC settlement,- the increase will help Iran to
meet its burgeoning foreign currency obligations
and give the Shah some solace for what he considers
the mare favorable treatment given to Lib a-and
other radical states~_ y the oil companies
ARAB STATES - MOROCCO: Libyan Prime Minister
Qadhafi and Egyptian Presilent 5adat are meeting in
:Mersa Matruh with d~legatians from Sudan and Syria
to discuss the situation in Morocco. The Egyptians
sought to-mask the true reason for the conclave,
which suggests that Sadat foresaw some stormy ses-
sions with Qadhafi, whose public support of the
.Moroccan rebels probably annoyed the Egyptian leader.
Qadhafi's persistence in his extreme stand on the
Moroccan situation must also be causing the Egyptians
concern about future wrangl~.ng over foreign policy
issues within the tripartitf: Federation of Arab Re-
publics, which is scheduled to come into being after
1 Se tember.
Ccontinued)
16 Jul 71 Central Intelli{;ence Bulletin
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ESPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
The United States Inte~.ligence Board on 15 July
1971 apprpved the following special national intel-
ligence estimate:
SNIE 91-71 "Short-Term Outlook for
Argentina"
16 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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Secret
Secret
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