CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019600090002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 30, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Top Secret,
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30 July 1971
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30 July 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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BERLIN TALKS: Soviet suggestion to conclude advis-
ers' t'-- a s . (Page 5)
EURATOM: A move toward ratification of the NPT.
P age 7 )
SUDAN-USSR: The reported departure of Soviet experts.
Page 81
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ETHIOPIA: The Emperor is to visit Communist China.
(Page 10)
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BERLIN TALKS: The-chief Soviet adviser at the
Berlin talkshasexpressed a desire to conclude dis-
cussion at the advisers' level and to reach final
four-power agreement by mid-August.
Soviet adviser Kvitsinsky made these suggestions
at the meeting on 28 July. Dramatic Soviet calls
for a quick wrap-up of the talks are nothing new, but
this is the first time they have proposed ending dis-
cussion at the advisers' level and moving the venue
to the ambassadors' level.
In recent weeks the frequency of meetings has
increased markedly, but there has been growing doubt
among the Western governments that progress has kept
pace. Kvitsinsky's proposal to move the negotia-
tions into a new phase may be a tactic to increase
the pressure on the Allies,, The Soviets are undoubt-
edly aware that some high West German officials have
expressed the fear that unless a four-power Berlin
agreement is reached this year, the related ratifi-
cation of.the Soviet - West German Treaty will be-
come fatally entangled in the 1973 West German elec-
tion campaign.
A proposal by Kvitsinsky on one of the substan-
tive issues in the talks also seems aimed at expedit-
ing conclusion of the four-power stage of the nego-
tiations. He outlined a new procedural approach to
the question of a Federal German presence in West
Berlin which would replace the controversial list
of permissible activities with a general statement,
to be supplemented by an Allied memorandum setting
forth details. Kvitsinsky's proposal may signal yet
another Soviet effort to transfer this topic to the
talks between the two Germanies. The Allied advis-
ers reserved judgment on this idea pending further
consultation and exploration, but their initial re-
action was that it offered little substantive im-
provement. At the same time, Kvitsinsky attempted
to reintroduce objectionable wording on the subject
of West German access to Berlin.
(continued)
30 Jul 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Kvitsinsky's remark that the fruitfulness of
further meetings at the advisers' level is at an end
has some basis in fact. The advisers have now dis-
cussed all sections of the proposed agreement in
great detail and have produced tentative drafts on
all sections. While the negotiations have been bus-
inesslike and unpolemical, significant areas of dis-
agreement remain throughout. Last week Kvitsinsky
informed his French counterparts that all instruc-
tions to the Soviet delegation came from Gromyko
himself. Further movement in the talks thus may re-
quire negotiators at a higher level. Today's ambas-
sadorial session could well provide a clearer indi-
cation of the future direction of the talks.
30 Jul 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EURATOM: Concessions to France appear to have
broken the long stalemate in EURATOM which has pre-
vented its five non-nuclear members from moving to-
ward ratification of the nonproliferation treaty
(NPT).
Since the NPT was completed in 1968, these five
and France have been sharply at odds on how the com-
munity should comply with the treaty's safeguard
provisions. Paris, which has no intention of ad-
hering to the treaty, has held that verification by
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)--which
the NPT calls for--would violate the EURATOM treaty.
However, in blocking the opening of negotiations be-
tween the two organizations, France has in fact been
bargaining for an exemption from EURATOM's own safe-
guards that have been long resented by nationalistic
elements in the Pompidou government.
The "compromise" apparently reached among the
Six in Brussels last week appears to have given Paris
much of what it wanted. With few exceptions--notably
the fissile materials it receives from the US--France
will be able to decide for itself which of its nu-
clear undertakings are "peaceful" and therefore sub-
ject to EURATOM's safeguards. Although the other
members may ask the EC Council to "examine" com-
plaints that specific exemptions give the French
commercial advantage, it is doubtful that this can
be an effective constraint. In addition, France has
not committed itself to follow the US and UK lead in
offering voluntarily to accept IAEA inspection of
certain peaceful installations.
France's special position may eventually cause
difficulties with some of the other EURATOM countries,
particularly West Germany, but the agreement should
permit EURATOM to open negotiations with the IAEA in
the fall. The five signatories of the NPT have felt
under increasing pressure to do so, especially from
the Soviet Union, which has been threatening to
raise the issue at the IAEA general conference in
September if the impasse is not resolved by then.
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SUDAN-USSR: The reported departure of several
Soviet experts from the Sudan is probably the result
of Sudanese rather than Soviet action.
Sudanese President Numayri announced yesterday
that Soviet experts in his country had nearly com-
pleted their mission and were about to leave. He
stated that seven Soviets had left the Sudan prior
to the recent coup. Numayri said that he had no
evidence of Soviet involvement in the coup attempt
and had no desire to see a deterioration in rela-
tions with Moscow. However, none of the military or
economic projects undertaken by the Soviets in the
Sudan would appear to be near enough to completion
to warrant the departure of the experts.
There are estimated to be at least 500 Soviet
experts in the Sudan.
Moscow is vigorously protesting the execution
of the Sudanese Communists. An authoritative
Izvestiya article yesterday bitterly condemned the
mass terror" against the Communists, despite "num-
erous calls from Soviet leaders" to refrain from
"extraordinary measures." The tone of the article
suggests that the Soviets will take some concrete
steps to demonstrate their dissatisfaction. The So-
viets have a history of sacrificing local Communist
parties when it is in the USSR's national interest,
however, and they would be unlikely to abandon com-
pletely their investment in the Sudan because of the
execution of local party members.
30 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ETHIOPIA: Emperor Haile Selassie has accepted
an invv tin` to visit Communist China this fall,
probably in late October.
The two countries established diplomatic rela-
tions last December. The Emperor probably will an-
nounce the establishment of an embassy in Peking dur-
ing the trip, although financial considerations may
delay the formal opening of a mission.
Addis Ababa apparently expects Peking to be
forthcoming with economic assistance as a result of
the visit.
An Ethiopian trade and aid
delegation, originally scheduled to go to Peking in
October, is instead going in September to work out
details of an economic agreement that can then be
signed by the Emperor the following month. II
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