CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP79T00975A019600100001-3
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
T
Document Page Count:
18
Document Creation Date:
December 14, 2016
Document Release Date:
June 5, 2003
Sequence Number:
1
Case Number:
Publication Date:
July 31, 1971
Content Type:
REPORT
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CIA-RDP79T00975A019600100001-3.pdf | 588.73 KB |
Body:
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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 42
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No. 0182/71
31 July 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
INDOCHINA: The Communist road through the DMZ.
Page 1)
LAOS: The government campaign to retake Paksong.
Page 3)
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PHILIPPINES: Rice shortage. (Page 5)
ITALY: The housing and tax reform bills. (Page 6)
CEMA: The recent meeting. (Page 7)
CHILE: Defections from the Christian Democratic
Party. (Page 8)
URUGUAY: Tupamaros' jailbreak. (Page 9)
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SIERRA LEONE - COMMUNIST CHINA: Diplomatic relations
Page 1l)
ZAMBIA: Restrictions for foreign banks (Page 13)
YUGOSLAVIA: The new vice president (Page 13)
EAST CHINA SEA: Oil (Page 13)
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New Communist Road Construction
O H 4 VIETNAM
Khe
Sanh
'--July consttr RUTH VIET M
LAOS
~ConstructIon during
-t Feb - Jun
DEMILITARIZED
ZONE
QUANG NAM
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INDOCHINA; Work continues on the new Communist
road tErough the western end of the DMZ which joins
roads in South Vietnam,
Recent photography indicates that during the
past month two more miles have been added and that
about three miles remain to be completed before con-
necting with Route 9, the main east-west road into
Quang Tri Province. The DMZ road considerably im-
proves access to this region and it will permit the
Communists to take advantage of comparatively dry
weather in South Vietnam while heavy rains and bomb-
ings are disrupting supply movements to the west in
Laos. Construction extending northeast from the new
road probably is intended to link with Routes 102/
120 from North Vietnam, which end in the DMZ.
Farther south, the Communists are continuing
to make slow progress on a, road north from Route
616 toward Route 9m Several gaps which total up to
nine miles remain to be com leted to link the DMZ
road to the A Shau Valley.
I
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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19assNape
Mu Gia
Pass
Ban Karai
-Pass
Bolovens
Plateau
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LAOS: Government forces are making progress
in their campaign to retake Paksong despite some
determined enemy resistance.
Two regular army battalions met opposition be-
fore they were able to secure Ban Gnik village on
Route 23. Elements of a North Vietnamese battalion,
well entrenched in nearby bunkers, countered the
government advance with rocket and mortar fire. The
government forces secured the village following in-
tense artillery and aerial bombardment.
US air observers report that the Communists
are constructing bunkers and gun pits farther east
along Route 23 and on high ground just west of Pak-
song, suggesting that they intend to put up a spir-
ited defense of the central Bolovens.
To the north of Route 23, the three battalions
that make up the 1,250-man main government task
force are pushing east parallel to the road in an
effort to take Paksong from the north. This force
had been airlifted to positions on the western edge
of the plateau without opposition.
North of the plateau, government units are
still holding Saravane. Several small clashes have
occurred in this area.
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SEU-
PHILIPPINES: Manila is likely to request rela-
tively-large quantities of rice from the US and per-
haps other exporters within a few days.
The government is expected to seek some 350,000
tons of rice, equal to about ten percent of annual
consumption, in order to stabilize rice prices be-
fore the November congressional elections. These
imports would be in addition to the 100,000 tons
purchased from Taiwan and Thailand earlier this year
when rice shortages first occurred. Because of
these shortages the retail price of cereals, mostly
rice, jumped more than 11 percent during the first
quarter of 1971 and has continued to rise since then.
Although rice production increased substantially
in the late 1960's, Manila's earlier goal of long-
term self-sufficiency is far,from being attained.
The country has had trouble improving on earlier
output gains largely because most irrigated land is
already devoted to high-yielding varieties that ac-
counted for the initial boosts in production. Ty-
phoon damage last year has aggravated the situation
and added to import requirements. The need.to im-
port large quantities on a crash basis also reflects
the fact that at least some stocks purchased by the
government in recent years were illegally sold b
rice dealers who held them.
31 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ITALY: Prime Minister Colombo is pushing for
Senate action on housing and tax reforms in a situa-
tion which holds some perils for the government.
The vote on both bills is scheduled for 7 Au-
gust. The simultaneous Senate action is a compro-
mise between the relatively liberal proponents of
the housing bill and the more conservative backers
of tax reform. Each group had initially sought pri-
ority for its bill.
Colombo has worked out an amended draft of the
housing bill which is apparently acceptable to the
leaders of the three government parties--the Chris-
tian Democratic, the Socialist, and the Social Demo-
cratic. Nevertheless, as the vote is secret, an un-
determined number of conservative Christian Democrats
may vote against the bill.
Defeat of either bill might well force the gov-
ernment to resign. Italian press speculation sug-
gests that a government crisis at this time might
also lead President Saragat to resign to restore for-
ward momentum to the country's political activity.
A new presidential election would then be held within
15 days instead of next December, as presently sched-
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CEMA: The final communiq.u4 of the annual ses-
sion of CEMA contained something for everyone.
Soviet desire to focus attention on economic
interdependence among the members lies behind prom-
inent reference to the ultimate goal of economic
integration, the subject of a "complex program" that
soon is to be published. Its planned implementation
over only a 15- to 20-year period indicates that an
air of compromise pervaded the conference. The Hun-
garian delegation noted that the lack of participa-
tion of "one or two countries" in an integration
scheme would not be an obstacle to the cooperation
of other "interested" countries. They also made
clear that the target of "integration" did not rule
out development of economic relations with countries
having different social systems.
Romania, which had publicized its dim view of
integration plans prior to the conference, has not
as yet commented on the communique'. It presumably
found its interests adequately protected by a lib-
eral sprinkling of references to "equal and sover-
eign states," "noninterference in the internal af-
fairs" of members, and "complete equality and vol-
untariness." Although Bucharest characterized as
"cordial and comradely" conversations held concur-
rently with Soviet trade and planning ministers on
"deepening" of collaboration, specialization in pro-
duction, and the exchange of goods over the next
five years, Soviet officials may have used particu-
larly blunt language.
31 Jul 71
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CHILE: Leftist defections from the Christian
Democratic Party (PDC) will help the Allende govern-
ment's divide and conquer strategy.
A group of Christian Democrats called the "Chris-
tian Left," including youth leaders and as many as
ten deputies,.is leaving the parent party in protest
over PDC cooperation with conservative opposition
groups. The small faction has been a disruptive in-
fluence within the party and probably will not siphon
off many votes. However, the loss of some of its
most energetic members tarnishes the PDC victory in
a recent by-election and reduces the opposition's
majority in the legislature. Moderate PDC leaders
still hope to dissuade some of the rebels from an
open break.
The dissidents reportedly will join forces with
other leftist Christian Democrats who left the party
in May 1969. The latter were the nucleus of the
Unitary Popular Action Movement (MAPU), which is a
member of Allende's coalition, but are said to be
unhappy over the capture of the MAPU leadership by
radical extremists and reportedly will join the
Christian Left movement. Whether this group will
then join Allende's coalition or remain independent
is unclear.
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URUGUAY: The Tupamaros' spectacular jailbreak
on Thursday will spur further attacks on the vulner-
able Pacheco administration.
The Tupamaro operation made use of a block-long
underground tunnel to free 44 female terrorists--
almost all of the inmates in the women's prison. To
add to the government's chagrin, responsibility for
prison administration had been transferred earlier
this year from the Ministry of Culture to that of
Interior to improve security after the escape last
year of 13 women prisoners.
The escape comes at a, time when congressional-
executive relations have already reached a new low.
A resolution to impeach the President passed the
Chamber of Deputies but has apparently been blocked
in the Senate. Opposition factions, and especially
the new leftist Frente Amplio coalition, will seize
upon this latest government gaffe. A Frente request
for interpellation of the minister of interior seems
likely to succeed if he does not resign as a result
of the escape.
Even before the jailbreak, the terrorism prob-
lem, difficulties with the congress, and the threat
posed by the Communist-backed Frente in the November
elections had prompted rumors of a coup to be. led by
President Pacheco. Pacheco's tough policies and his
headstrong personality have fueled such speculation.
The evidence strongly suggests Pacheco will ignore
certain constitutional restraints if they interfere
with his concept of effective leadership. Actual
planning for a coup in democratically oriented Uru-
guay, however, will probably have to await either an
increase of violent terrorist activity or a clear
indication that the Frente has a strong chance of
winning the November elections.
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SIERRA LEONE - COMMUNIST CHINA: Sierra Leone
has become the eighteent African country having dip-
lomatic relations with Peking, and the fifth to es-
tablish them since last October. Taipei, which has
had diplomatic relations with Sierra Leone since
1963, was given no forewarning and has not yet re-
acted to Freetown's announcement that it recognizes
Peking as the sole representative of the Chinese
people. If Taipei severs its ties, it probably would
mean the end of its important economic assistance
program; however, an aid package was part of the
agreement with Peking. Since coming to power in
April 1968, President Siaka Stevens--under pressure
from leftists within the ruling party--has gradually
modified the pro-West foreign policy of previous gov-
ernments.
(continued)
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US Company Completes Seismic Survey in East China Sea
Tokyo
SOUTH
KOREA
Approximate area of
US seismic activity
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ZAMBIA: The government has retreated from its
decision of last November to merge all private com-
mercial banks into two state-controlled institutions.
The principal foreign-owned commercial banks--Bar-
clays, Standard, and National & Grindlays--will not
be nationalized as originally planned. Instead, in
an apparent attempt to make the three foreign banks
more vulnerable to future government action, Lusaka
will require that by 1972 they incorporate in Zambia,
have at least one half of their board of directors
reside in Zambia, and possess a minimum of $2.8 mil-
lion in paid up capital. These banks are virtually
the only major institutions that have escaped Zambia's
sweeping nationalizations.
YUGOSLAVIA: The selection of Krste Crvenkovski
to be vice president of the new collective presidency
means that for the next year he would substitute if
Tito is absent or incapacitated. The appointment of
Crvenkovski, a Macedonian, should serve to lessen
the possibility of clashes between Serb and Croat
interests while offering encouragement to other ol-
iticians from the smaller minority groups.
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EAST CHINA SEA: At least one US company is ex-
tremely bullish a out finding oil in commercially
exploitable quantities in the East China Sea north
of the disputed Senkaku Islands. Company officials
are encouraged by the results of recently completed
seismic surveys and compare the potential for find-
ing oil to that of the area, offshore of Indonesia.
The company tentatively plans to begin drilling in
the mid-1973 to mid-1974 period despite what they
see as a potentially high risk because of conflict-
ing claims of Tokyo Taipei, and Peking to the area.
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