CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019700110001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 25, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 13, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N? 42
13 August 1971
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No. 0193/71
13 August 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN-INDIA: Islamabad's concern over rising ten-
sion. (Page 1)
SYRIA-JORDAN: Break in relations. (Page 2)
SYRIA-USSR-SUDAN: Syrian attempt to mediate. (Page 3)
PHILIPPINES: Difficulties in coping with Muslim dis-
sidents. (Page 5)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: The former vice president may be
brought to trial. (Page 6)
TRINIDAD-TOBAGO: Assassination attempts. (Page 7)
PARAGUAY: Government attempt to improve its image.
Page 8)
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YUGOSLAVIA: Improved foreign investment climate.
(Page 10)
ARAB FEDERATION: Meeting (Page 11)
TURKEY: Trial of leftists (Page 11)
AUSTRALIA: Dismissal of defense minister (Page 12)
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PAKISTAN-INDIA: Islamabad is showing increased
concern over rising tensions on the subcontinent.
In a confidential letter to the current presi-
dent of the UN Security Council, Italian delegate
Vinci, the Pakistanis propose that a "good offices
committee" of Council members "visit both countries,
especially areas of present tension,. with a view to
defusing the threatening situation." Vinci has cir-
culated the letter to the other representatives on
the Council and will. soon begin consultations on the
proposal.
The Soviets in particular are likely to take
umbrage at the anti-Indian language in the Pakistani
letter and to oppose: the formation of such a commit-
tee. For its part, New Delhi has repeatedly taken
the position that any "even-handed" UN action--such
as a visit to both countries--would not be acceptable.
The Indians believe this would tend to emphasize the
bilateral nature of the dispute whereas, in their
eyes, the real dispute is between Islamabad and the
dissidents in East Pakistan.
13 Aug 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C SYRIA-JORDAN: Syria broke relations with Jor-
dan yesterday and closed its air space to Jordanian
.planes following cross-border clashes on 11 and 12
August..
The Syrians have charged that a. small Jordanian
patrol--two tracked vehicles and one jeep--crossed
less than a mile into Syrian territory on Wednesday
and killed a Syrian at an observation post. In ad-
dition, troops frora the two sides traded fire across
the border yesterday; the Syrians say they have de-
stroyed four Jordanian tanks, but this claim is very
likely an exaggeration. The Jordanians deny any
losses and claim to have-knocked out several Syrian
tanks.
Incidents across the border. are frequent.. Units
of the Palestine Liberation Army are. regularly sta-
tioned near the Syrian border town of Daraa, and some
Syrian Army units were moved to the border area last
month, possibly to keep the fedayeen troops under
control. The Jordanians, on their side, have con-
centrated troops as a defense against any fedayeen
incursions. Fedayeen firing across the border has
been met by Jordanian shelling in reprisal, and each
side has strayed into the other's territory on occa-
sion.
Syria's motives for publicizing the recent.in-
cidents and then using them as an excuse for stern
measures against Jordan are unclear. The Syrians
may be trying to refurbish their pro-Palestinian
credentials by taking a stronger. line against Jor-
dan,. particularly because Syria's previous attitude
of quiet cooperation with Jordan has become more
widely known. The -timing may be related to current
efforts to mediate between the Jordanian Government
and the fedayeen. A two-man Egyptian-Saudi nego-
tiating team is now in Amman with a six-point peace
plan--blessed by Cairo--that gives the fedayeen vir-
tually nothing, although it pays lip service to pre-
vious.agreements "guaranteeing" them some freedom
of activity. The Syrians may hope to one-up the
T om___ i 3 ___- 1 1
13 Aug 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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SYRIA-USSR-SUDAN: Syria is evidently attempting
to play a mediatory role between Sudan and the USSR.
The Syrian vice president and the foreign minis-
ter arrived in Khartoum on Wednesday after spending
two days in the USSR discussing the current situa-
tion. in the Middle East. The Syrian officials had
met with First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov and
with the Soviet party secretary responsible for re-
lations with the nonruling Communist parties. The
timing of the visits strongly suggests that the Syr-
ians, at Moscow's behest, are trying to dampen cur-
rent Soviet-Sudanese tensions that have threatened
.not only to rupture Khartoum's relations. with Moscow
but to sour Soviet relations throughout the Middle
East.
Sudanese Prime Minister Numayri is sensitive
over the Syrian visit and has denied that it consti-
tutes "mediation" between the USSR and the Sudan.
After the first Sudanese-Syrian discussions yester-
day, however, the Sudanese deputy premier said that
Khartoum is "prepared to take positive steps" to im-
prove relations with the USSR, and. praised the So-
viet stand supporting the Arab states against Israel.
A Soviet Government minister in Moscow recently,
told an Arab visitor that the USSR is also looking
to Egypt to play a role in improving Soviet relations
with the Sudan. The Egyptian. press recently has
started to follow the Soviet lead that Soviet-Suda-
nese tensions can only divide the Arab world and re-
sult in a lessening of Soviet aid.
13 Aug 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Government Confronts
Muslim Dissidents
:BABUYAN
ISLANDS
LUZON
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PANAY
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v r Treaty Limits of the PMllppines
L
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PULAU
MIANGAS L..
(Indonesia)
.
PULAU KARAKELONG,*
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PHILIPPINES: The government's increasing dif-
ficulties in coping with Muslim dissidents on the
southern island of Mindanao could create significant
domestic and international problems for Manila.
Long-standing communal tensions between Filipino
Muslims and Christian settlers have been particularly
acute this year in Cotabato Province on Mindanao.
The situation has taken on a new dimension with a
confrontation between government troops and dissi-
dents associated with the separatist Mindanao Inde-
pendence Movement. Government forces have been un-
able to dislodge a sizable dissident force occupying
a major provincial town.
Manila has moved in artillery and augmented its
forces for a possible all-out push, but it might
still be at a disadvantage in view of the outlaws'
familiarity with the terrain. In hopes of avoiding
a showdown, the rebels have been given until Sunday
to surrender, and the government has suspended mili-
tary operations to encourage them to lay down their
arms.
President Marcos planned to fly to Cotabato yes-
terday, presumably to accept the rebels' surrender
personally. This would be a political boost for him
and his Nacionalista Party in November's congres-
sional elections, as he has committed himself to
calming tensions in Cotabato. These particular dis-
sidents appear to be an unusually obstreperous lot,
however, and it remains to be seen whether they will
come to terms.
A worsening of the situation could cause com-
plications in Manila's relations with Muslim coun-
tries.
13 Aug 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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MALAGASY REPU]3LIC: President Tsiranana may bring
former vice president Resampa to trial on charges of
"espionage and subversion."
In a speech this week in Resampa's home region
in the south, Tsiranana openly charged him with com-
plicity in fomenting the bloody revolt that erupted
in that part of the island-last April. It now ap-
pears that Resampa, who has been detained since June
on another charge, will be tried together with Monja
.Jaona, the leader of the insurgents.. The new charge
against Resampa enables Tsiranana to save face by
pinning the embarrassing revolt on the discredited
vice president, although it was in fact largely the
result of government neglect and exploitation of the
people of the south.
Tsiranana may now be inclined to drop or play
down the earlier charge that Resampa had plotted
against the government in concert with an unnamed for-
eign power. Tsiranana barely mentioned this in his
speech. He may believe that he cannot afford to per-
mit Resampa to be brought to trial and present a pub-
lic defense against an allegation that the President
has so far not been willing to substantiate.
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TRINIDAD-TOBAGO: Attempts have been made this
week on the lives of two key figures in government
action against mutineers of the local military regi-
ment.
Captain David Bloom, commander of the Trinidad
and Tobago Coast Guard, was shot and seriously
wounded on 10 August. Police believe the attack is
directly related to the prominent role Bloom played
in the suppression of the mutiny in the Trinidad and
Tobago Regiment in April 1970. A private from the
regiment, whom police suspect of having ties to the
black power movement in the regiment and to the ci-
vilian black radical movement as well, has been de-
tained.
A few hours after the attack on Bloom, Theodore
Roosevelt Guerra, a barrister who has been promi-
nently involved in the prosecution in three court-
martials that have dealt with the regiment's muti-
neers, was also wounded. Prime Minister Eric Wil-
liams has taken a personal interest in the affair
and informed the Ministry of National Security and
the police that he expects an early solution.
While it is uncertain what effect these shoot-
ings will have over the long term, local nervousness
has been heightened and additional pressure has been
heaped upon a police force already beset by an up-
surge in crime recent weeks.
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PARAGUAY: The government is reportedly consid-
ering several moves, including a prisoner exchange
with Cuba, to improve its image.
President Stroessner, already looking forward
to an easy re-election in 1973, apparently will at-
tempt to play down his regime's repressive reputation.
A deal for the exchange of about 40 political prison-
ers--some of whom have been held for more than ten
years--for a like number of Cuban political prisoners
awaits only final agreement from the Castro govern-
ment. Earlier exchange attempts, usually initiated
by Cuban exiles, have failed. Castro, however,. may
see the Paraguayan offer as an opportunity to display
a more reasonable posture and so encourage efforts by
Chile and others to normalize Cuba's relations in
Latin America.
As a follow-up to an exchange the administration
is also considering lifting the state of siege that
has been in force in Paraguay since 1940. Another
possible move toward liberalization would be the rec-
ognition of the. small Christian Democratic Party,
whose application for inscription has previously
been turned down.
The opposition represents no threat to the en-
trenched Stroessner government, which has been in
power since 1954, and the measures under considera-
tion would involve little political cost and could
provide tangible political gain. The lifting of the
state of siege would deprive the opposition of a
highly visible target for its charges of repression.
In addition, the Church, whose relations with the
government have been strained by a series of inci-
dents over the past year, would probably have to ap-
plaud such action and some improvement in relations
might result. Whatever "democratization" occurs,
however, politics will still be conducted on Stroess-
ner's terms and there will be little leeway for ef-
fective opposition.
13 Aug 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA: Amended joint investment laws,
which go into effect. today, will significantly im-
prove the climate for foreign investment.
The key amendment is the abolition of the re-
quirement that the foreign partner reinvest 20 per-
cent of annual profits after taxes. Other amendments
should also prove attractive to prospective foreign
investors. They include explicit guarantees of the
right to expatriate capital if a contract expires or
is mutually canceled and the guarantee that no sub-
sequent laws or regulations can alter joint invest-
ment contracts. The government still retains the
right, however, to apply certain restrictive guide-
lines in approving or rejecting these contracts.
Although the amendments remove most of the legal
deterrents.to joint investments, the main obstacle
is Yugoslavia's chronic economic instability. The
current atmosphere--rampant inflation coupled with
ineffective government efforts to restore economic
order--may incline prospective investors to wait for
improved economic conditions. Furthermore, foreign
investors may continue to find the large measure of
worker participation in factory management a bar to
concluding contracts.
13 Aug 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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NOTES
ARAB FEDERATION: A Sudanese delegation report-
edly will join the leaders of Egypt, Libya, and
'Syria at a planning meeting of the proposed Federa-
tion of Arab Republics (FAR) now scheduled for next
Wednesday. These sessions are intended to iron out
the provisions of the constitution and the basic
principles of the planned grouping. Although Suda-
nese observers have attended previous FAR planning
meetings, the attendance of high-level officials
would suggest that the prospects for Sudanese par-
ticipation in the federation have improved.
TURKEY: Martial law authorities have put 83
persons, including 159 from the military, on trial
for plotting a leftist revolution last spring. The
prosecutor's brief alleged that leftists had planned
to bomb strategic sites in Ankara, establish a "Red
Guard," and "had time been ripe, would have turned
Turkey into another Vietnam." Forty-one of the ac-
cused face a possible death penalty, while the oth-
ers could receive jail sentences up to 15 years if
convicted. The initial reaction in Istanbul, where
the large number of military personnel among the
accused has caused deep concern, is that the trial
may become a "showcase" and drag on for months,
even years. It is probably designed largely to
lend credence to military claims last March that
intervention was necessar in part to forestall a
leftist-oriented coup.
(continued)
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AUSTRALIA: Prime Minister McMahon's removal
of the controversial defense minister, John Gorton,
should further strengthen his hold on both the cab-
inet and the Liberal Party. Gorton's dismissal,
however, closely follows the ouster of former for-
eign minister Bury and thus projects a public image
of party divisiveness which could redound to the
benefit of the opposition Labor Party. Gorton,, one
of McMahon's chief political rivals, largely pre-
cipitated the action against himself by publishing
a highly critical article concerning cabinet minis-
ters past and present
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