CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020000070002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 16, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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'Aw Top Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C 197
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16 September 1971
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16 September 197-1
Central Intellzgence Bulletin
EAST PAKISTAN: Guerrilla activity expected to in-
crease. Page 1)
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GERMANY-USSR: Brandt to seek Brezhnev's help in
removing East German foot-dragging. (Page 5)
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EAST PAKISTAN: Guerrilla activity in East Pak-
istan is expected to increase with the ending of
the monsoon by early October.
E Mukti Bahini (East Pakistan
Liberation Fighters) are scheduled to begin infil-
trating into East Pakistan from India during the
first week of October 25X1
ITnis gro p o ?, -
crui a primari y rom ast Pakistani refugees, is
described as the third and largest contingent of
Bengali guerrillas to have received weapons and
training in India prior to infiltration across the
border. up to 10,000
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guerrillas are a rea y operating in as Pakistan
or staging cross-border raids.
The ending of the monsoon. will facilitate
counterguerrilla activities by the estimated 70,000
Pakistani troops in the East wing. On the other
hand, the end of the rains will also increase the
mobility.of the "liberation fighters," and the vir-
tual doubling of the number of active guerrilla
fighters would significantly increase difficulties
for the martial law administration in retaining
control over East Pakistan--both by permitting more
frequent attacks on troops, government installations, 25X1
and collaborators and by demonstrating to the popu-
lation the growing strength of the guerrilla move-
16 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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L GE_~NY-USSR: Continued East German footdrag-
ging in thesecond phase" of the Berlin talks will
be a major item on Chancellor Brandt's agenda in
his talks with Brezhnev in the Crimea beginning to-
day.
Despite Western approaches to the Soviets for
intercession last weekend, Pankow's negotiator Kohl
remained adamant on 14 September in denying that the
German-language text of the Berlin accord worked out
by East and West German representatives on 3 Septem-
ber can be the basis for the inter-German talks. On
the same day, West Berlin Senat negotiator Mueller
met with East Germany's representative Kohrt, but
made no progress on substance or procedures. The
next talks in both forums are set for 22 September,
after the Brandt-Brezhnev summit.
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Bonn is eager to conclude the inter-German
talks, but not at the cost of acknowledging GDR
legal pretensions leaving open obvious possibili-
ties for future obstructionism.
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(continued)
16 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Soviets will probably make a generally fa-
vorable response to Brandt's requests. East German
recalcitrance may be acceptable and even desirable
to the Soviets as a short-term tactic, but it is
doubtful that they will let it persist long enough
to threaten their broader aims in Europe. 25X1
the only agenda item proposed ny e
Soviets was a discussion of a Conference on Euro-
pean Security (CES)--further evidence of the impor-
tance they attach to this topic. Having come as
far as they already have on Berlin, it is unlikely
that the Soviets intend to let East German obstruc-
tionism impede the accelerating movement toward a
CES. 25X1
16 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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