CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020000100001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 20, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
k DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
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No. 0225/71
20 September 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
ISRAEL-EGYPT: The situation along the Suez Canal
is quiet. (Page 1)
UN - MIDDLE EAST: The Security Council is expected
to reconvene early this week to consider Israeli ac-
tions in Jerusalem. (Page 2)
EGYPT: The new cabinet should not bring about rad-
i lca policy change. (Page 4)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Agitation is growing, but the gov-
ernment seems capable of controlling demonstrations.
(Page 5)
INDONESIA-CHINA: Indonesia is searching for a way
to establish direct communications with Peking.
(Page 7)
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INDIA: Prime Minister Gandhi's dominance over her
Ruling Congress Party is growing. (Page 9)
CAMBODIA: Fuel tanks attacked (Page 10)
BRAZIL: Death of guerrilla leader (Page 10)
ARGENTINA: Elections scheduled (Page 11)
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/ISRAEL-EGYPT: The situation along the Suez
Cana is quiet in the wake of Israeli. air strikes
at Egyptian SAM sites on Saturday.
The Israelis have confirmed to US officials in
Tel Aviv that Israel initiated Saturday's action in
retaliation for. the shooting down of the Israeli
C-97 on Friday. Israeli aircraft first flew along
the southern half. of the canal to induce radar emis-
sions from seven preselected SAM sites located be-
tween.Ismailia and Suez city. Then eight Phantoms
launched a total of 12 Shrike missiles at the tar-
gets from the Israeli side of the canal. Apparently
none of the Shrikes scored a hit; all seven sites
remained operational, and none apparently required
repairs. Six or more Egyptian missiles were launched
at the Israeli planes, but the Israelis were out of
range and none came close.
Both sides appear willing to treat the inci-
dents as a. closed chapter.. The Israelis have re-
frained from publicly describing their action as
retaliation. The Egyptians have said that they
suffered no losses as a result of the Israeli ac-
tion, which indicates that .they may be satisf e
to allow the Israeli strike to go unanswered.
20 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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UN - MIDDLE EAST: The Security Council is ex
pect to reconvene early this week to consider Is-
raeli actions in Jerusalem, but intra-Arab agreement
on a draft resolution is not yet in sight.
After the second day of Council debate, on Fri-
day, the US Mission learned that the Arab group is
reviewing two markedly differing texts. A Syrian
draft would send a special Council mission to Jeru-
salem with instructions to report back within 15 days.
It also cites the possible need to apply UN sanctions
against Israel. The Soviets appear to be backing
this approach, because in the past they have prefer-
red that any mission be under the Council rather than
the secretariat.
The Jordanians have discarded the text worked
out with the US and have drafted a new one with
Egypt and Yemen (Sana). This draft does not refer
to UN sanctions and calls upon the Secretary General
to report within 30 days on the situation in Jeru-
salem. It could well provoke a Western veto, but the
Jordanians maintain it represents the "irreducible
minimum" that could obtain Arab support. A critical
problem for the Jordanians is the need to have a mem-
ber of the Council introduce the resolution they have
in mind. The only Arab state presently on the Coun-
cil is Syria.
There has been no clarification of Egyptian
President Sadat's statement on Thursday that he wanted
the Council to meet at the foreign minister level to
consider the entire Middle East imbroglio. Presum-
ably he is willing to wait for at least a few more
weeks before moving fully in that direction. The
Arabs are planning a full-scale Middle East debate
in the General Assembly commencing in mid-November.
This strategy is based on the parliamentary situation
in the Assembly--priority will probably be given the
Chinese representation issue--and a willingness to
hold off until the Organization of African Unity'`
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(OAU). peace, mission to Middle East capitals, sched-
uled for early November, has been completed. Last
year wide African support aided the Arabs in rolling
up a 57-16 majority in the Assembly f,or a contentious
resolution strongly" opposed by the US and Israel.
The Israelis hope to `convince the OAU mi sion to
'
a more alancedite;xt this fall all.
support
20 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C EGYPT: The new cabinet appointed yesterday
portends no radical shift in the formulation of for-
eign or domestic policy.
The retention of Prime Minister Fawzi, the min-
isters of foreign affairs, war, and interior, and
other cabinet members in politically sensitive posts
emphasizes continuity with the government that was
dissolved on 11 September. A number of ministries
were abolished and two new ones created, in keeping
with the government reorganization pledged by Presi-
dent Sadat in his address to the nation last Thurs-
day.
One appointment which has attracted the atten-
tion of political observers in Cairo is that of
Muhammad Ghalib,who has served during the last ten
years as ambassador to Moscow, as minister of state
for foreign affairs. The authoritative Al-Ahram
newspaper reported yesterday that Ghalib would have
"special responsibility" in his ministerial post
for overseeing Soviet-Egyptian rel
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SOH VIETNAM: Agitation continues to grow,
but e government still seems capable of controlling
protest demonstrations.
The antigovernment demonstrations in Saigon over
the weekend were the most violent in more than a year.
They were conducted principally by small groups of
radical students and. were broken up by forceful po-
lice action.
The protests followed several weeks of scattered
student disorders both in Saigon and in Hue. Presi-
dent Thieu's election policy has been the target of
most of the agitation, but the students also are
raising traditional grievances against the govern-
ment, such as summer military training. Although
most of the groups involved in the agitation remain
small and divided, their leaders probably hope that
by continuing their protest: campaign they can per-
suade the government to accede to some of their de-
mands. They also hope to improve their own positions
within the student community.
(continued)
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The government appears to be well aware of the
planne protest activities, and it probably hopes
that strong police measures can break up and dis-
courage demonstrations as effectively as they did
during student protests last year. Nevertheless,
heavy-handed tactics could create additional sympa-
thy for the demonstrators. In addition, strong-arm
measures such as those used over the weekend to break
up a rally of opposition legislators--a more influ-
ential group than the students--could backfire
against the government.
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INDONESIA-CHINA: Indonesia continues to search
for 4e;--~to establish direct communications with
Peking.
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Djakarta, which suspended relations with China
in 1967, has been divided on the wisdom of resuming
ties. The Foreign Department has favored resumption
but the army, which is the dominant force in the
government, has been opposed. This year, however,
President Suharto and a highly influential group of
generals have moved toward a foreign policy that
would balance Western financial assistance by an
improvement in relations with Communist countries,
including China. President Nixon's announcement
in July of his intended visit to Peking presumably
has had the effect of further underscoring the need
for a policy shift.
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trade as the best way to begin normalization. The 25X1
full resumption of relations probably w'll
slow process.
20 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INDIA: Prime Minister Gandhi's dominance over
her Ruling Congress Party is becoming even more ap-
parent.
. On 11 September she forced a resignation agree-
ment from Brahmananda Reddi, chief minister of the
southern state of Andhra Pradesh and a man whose
domination of Andhra politics had marked him as one
of the most powerful figures in the Ruling Congress
Party. With his resignation and the earlier maneu-
vered resignation of Mohan Lal Sukhadia, the long-
time chief minister of the northern state of Raja-
sthan, Mrs. Gandhi has struck decisive blows against
old-guard party leaders with personal bases of power.
Few of the party "barons" responsible for placing
her in office in 1966 remain in power positions to-
day, and Mrs. Gandhi appears to have the strength
to continue with a successful campaign to downgrade
those who do.
The recent resignations will give her a free
hand to ensure that candidates of her own choosing,
and therefore beholden to her, are nomimated by state
party organizations to represent the Ruling Congress
in state electoral contests scheduled to take place
by March 1972. Moreover, with the success of her
recent maneuvers, she may have gained the necessary
strength to effect a smooth reorganization of her
cabinet. The New Delhi rumor mill is already dis-
cussing the possibility of imminent cabinet changes.
Such long-awaited changes could displace other in-
dependent-minded party barons, upgrade the "progres-
sive" image of her government, and make it still
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more responsive to her dictates.
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NOTES
C CAMBODIA: An attack by Communist sappers early
today on the Esso and Shell companies' fuel storage
facilities on the northern outskirts of Phnom Penh
apparently caused extensive damage. This raid marked
the most significant enemy action in the capital area
since the strike last January on the city's airfield.
The storage tanks attacked are the only sizable pe-
troleum facilities in central Cambodia. Although
their destruction would cause a serious disruption
to civilian consumers in the Phnom Penh area, mil-
tar o erations are not x ec d be of ected
j BRAZIL: Government forces killed renegade army
capt"Th" Carlos Lamarca on 17 September after track-
ing him through the interior of the state of Bahia
for several weeks. The death of Lamarca, the most
prominent and experienced Brazilian guerrilla leader,
is a severe blow to the nation's revolutionary forces.
Lamarca had broken with the urban terrorist movement
last March following several setbacks and apparently
was trying to establish a rural guerrilla force at
the time of his death. His death is likely to have
a demoralizing affect on the advocates of both urban
and rural guerrilla warfare, although initially a
desire for vengeance could result in an ungurccP of
(continued)
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ARGENTINA: President Lanusse's announcement
that national elections will be held on 25 March
1973 comes amid a notable increase in rumors of mil-
itary dissension. There are also stirrings of labor
discontent, and a "passive" general strike has been
called for 29 September to protest the government's
economic policies. Lanusse's election announcement
was made nearly a month earlier than originally
planned, probably in the hope of sidetracking his
critics and gaining more.time to devise measures to
slow the high rate of inflation and to stimulate the
sagging economy. The President reportedly is also
in the process of moving his most loyal military
supporters into key troop commands to frustrate any
coup plotting.
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