CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020000110001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 21, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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No. 0226/71
21 September 1971
Central Intelligence .,bulletin
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: Ky and Big Minh said to be discuss-
ing roa opposition front, (Page 1)
PAKISTAN: Government's latest moves unlikely to
ease split between two wings. (Page 2)
MALTA-UK: Agreement on teps toward a new defense
arrangement. (Page 3)
UN-JORDAN: Problems in UN refugee assistance. (Page 5)
GABON: Murder of President's main tribal opponent.
Page 6)
IAEA-EURATOM: Negotiations on safeguards (Page 7)
GUYANA: ALCAN offer (Page 7)
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SOUTH VIETNAM: Vice President Ky and Big Minh
are %Mffrd to be discussing the formation of a broad
opposition front against President Thieu.
Minh met with Ky last weekend
land showed in 5eres
in the vice president's plan for a "United National
Front" of all opposition groups. While Minh refused
to give a firm commitment of support, he said he was
ready to oppose Thieu actively and to work closely
with Ky.
Although Minh has been reluctant to join in
opposition activities since his withdrawal from the
presidential election last month, he may have de-
cided that with overt opposition growing, he should
try to play an important role as an active antigov-
Rivalries among Ky, Minh, and other opposition
:Leaders could hamper the development of an opposition
front; such rivalries have blocked the creation of
similar coalitions in the past. Nevertheless, Minh
could bring into an opposition organization some
elements that probably would not join with Ky by
themselves.
Ky hopes his front would be able to coordinate
activities by all opposition groups against Thieu,
with its first goal to force cancellation of the
presidential election on 3 October by large-scale
demonstrations. The vice president has also been
discussing his plans with other antigovernment
groups.
If these diverse opposition interests do begin
to cooperate with one another, the political threat
to the Thieu government would be .snificaxltly^ _in- ;
creased.
21 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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PAKISTAN: Islamabad continues to take steps
to increase the role of civilians in governing the
country, but its efforts are unlikely to improve
the prospects for reconciliation between Pakistan's
two wings.
The military government has announced that by-
elections will be held from 25 November - 9 December
to fill East Pakistan's vacant seats in the national
and provincial assemblies. President Yahya Than has
also agreed that the new constitution to be drawn up
by the government will be submitted to the national
assembly for its consideration before being proclaimed
by the executive branch. These two new measures fol-
low the appointment on 17 September of a civilian
cabinet to administer East Pakistan.
The new procedures for approval of the constitu-
tion leave Yahya with a veto power over changes
recommended by the assembly. Moreover, if the as-
sembly fails to put forward its suggestions within
90 days, the government's draft automatically be-
comes final.
The seats being filled in the by-elections
became vacant last month when Pakistan's military
rulers disqualified 79 of the 167 Awami Leaguers
elected to the National Assembly and 195 of the
League's 288 provincial assembly members. In addi-
tion to the large percentage of disqualified members,
many of the "acceptable" legislators are likely to
decline to take their seats. These developments,
together with the limitations on the national as-
sembly's constitution-making role and the unimpres-
sive composition of East Pakistan's new cabinet,
leave little chance that Yahya's latest moves will
make much of an impression on either the East Pak-
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MALTA-UK: London and Valletta have agreed on
the cedures and timetable for negotiating a new
defense arrangement.
Prime Ministers Heath and Mintoff, in talks
last weekend in London, agreed that financial terms
should be worked out within three months and a de-
tailed agreement completed within six months.
Mintoff by implication accepted the NATO cash-aid
offer, which the British hope will rise to $24 mil-
lion, on the understanding that bilateral project
aid from individual NATO countries would be nego-
tiated promptly. London promised to pay half of
the annual UK-NATO package by 30 September, as-
;suming that NATO approves these arrangements.
Mintoff agreed to lift restrictions placed on
British forces on Malta and to restore the previous
arrangements--which gave London a veto over third-
country military use of Malta's airfields and har-
bors--pending completion of a new agreement. The
Maltese leader on 8 September had ordered a halt
to the distribution of "duty'-free fuel" to the
British forces on Malta.
Mintoff told Heath that regular visits of the
US Sixth Fleet would be acceptable, but with the
clear understanding that "very occasional" courtesy
visits by Soviet naval forces would be required to
maintain the island's neutrality. Malta suspended
Sixth Fleet visits in late June. According to
Mintoff, the Malta drydocks are being converted to
commercial use and will not be suitable in the fu-
ture for handling naval vessels.
Mintoff apparently has decided that a continua-
tion of tough bargaining tactics would not result in
a bigger Western offer. He also was probably im-
pelled toward a settlement with the UK by his concern
over the possible quid pro quo that Libya or the USSR
might ask in return for substantial aid, and by his
realization that the Maltese remain basically pro-
European. He doubtless will concentrate now on
striking the best bargain possible in bilateral aid
nacrmi- i at-ions with indiyiduQJ,,NATO countries. I
21 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Latakia
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UN- ORDAN: Two new problems are hindering the
refugee assistance ance efforts of the UN Relief and Works
Agency (UNRWA) in Jordan.
Syria's protracted closure of its border with
Jordan has put severe strains on UNRWA's effort to
provide adequate supplies, which generally arrive
at Lebanese ports for overland transshipment. Da-
mascus recently "relented" and allowed UNRWA to ship
via a roundabout route through Iraq, thus adding
more than 550 miles to the trip. UNRWA officials
believe the refugees' flour supplies will run out
this week, for at least a short period, and have
alerted Jordanian security personnel to the poten-
tial for trouble. Flour is essential to the refu-
gees' diet and is also used by them to barter for
other necessities of life.
Meanwhile, UNRWA remains beset by its own
:fiscal crisis. With US support, it had hoped to
convince Amman to take over some of UNRWA'.s services
in the refugee areas. An opportunity to do this
seemed possible this summer in connection with the,
substantial movement of refugees from the Jordanian
plateau into the East Ghor valley. Jordan, how-
ever, refused to take over any programs, and in.
fact asked UNRWA to provide assistance'in the valley.
Amman maintained that UNRWA could do this without
increasing costs, since some refugee camps on the
plateau could be closed.
The fiscal crisis has permitted UNRWA to sup-
ply only food in East Ghor, and a number of refugee
families have now returned to the plateau, where
they can obtain UNRWA's educational and medical
services. This development has increased the refu-
gee camp population and the potential for another
explosive situation. The camps on the plateau have
provided a fertile base for fedayeen recruitment,
It would cost Jordan about $400,000 to assume UNRWA's
functions in East Ghor and induce erha s 30,000-
40,000 refugeqs__i,-o settle there.-
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GABON: President Bongo's main tribal opponent,
Germain Nba, was murdered late last week following
the recent surfacing of rumors of a tribal plot
against the government.
According to the local rumor mill, Bongo had
Mba assassinated after the latter--who had been in
the Gabon Embassy in Bonn--refused a new diplomatic
assignment and returned instead to Gabon to work
against the President. The government attributes
the death of Mba, who was allegedly shot by three
white men, to unspecified "foreign powers" intent
on disrupting Gabon's stability and progress. It
has denied that Mba was his op-
position activity
Mba rallied o the government three years a o
aftuccessful opposition in exile, but Bongo
has always suspected him of continued plotting on
behalf of Gabon's largest tribe. Mba's death may
give other tribal enemies of President Bongo pause,
at least for the moment.
It is also possible that the US, long mistrusted
by some Gabonese leaders, could become a convenient
scapegoat in the affair, even though US relations
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NOTES
IAEA-EURATOM: Yesterday's announcement of
EU s ecision to open safeguards negotiations
with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
markedly improves the climate for ratification of
the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The EURATOM non-
nuclear-weapon states have signed the NPT, but have
not ratified it pending completion of the negotia-
tions--expected to be lengthy--with the IAEA, the
treaty-designated enforcement agency. Japan, an-
other key state that has signed but not ratified
the NPT, has said it would be willing to enter ne-
gotiations once the terms of an IAEA-EURATOM agree-
ment are known. The EURATOM decision should give
a major boost to the IAEA's campaign to complete
agreements with NPT adherents; to date only two of
the 69 parties to the treaty have completed safe-
GUYANA: The Aluminum Company of Canada's
(ALC Kneed for bauxite has caused it to offer to
act as sales and shipping agent for part of the out-
put of Guybau, the government firm now operating
ALCAN's former bauxite holding. The offer, ini-
tially for a two-year period, follows settlement
of outstanding compensation issues on terms satis-
factory to ALCAN. Even if Guyana accepts ALCAN's
offer it still would face major difficulties in
marketing the remainder of the output. The company
fears, however, that its operations in nearby Ja-
maica would be threatened by a more generous offer
of assistance to Guybau. For this reason ALCAN
also refused, at least temporarily, to meet Guyana's
demands for technical assistance to expand calcined
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