CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020100030001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 28, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 24, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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No. 0229/71
24. September 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
COMMUNIST CHINA: 25X1
leadership crisis in Peking. age
EUROPEAN SPACE DEVELOPMENTS: France and West Ger-
many to push ahead with independent development of
space vehicle. (Page 3)
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CEYLON: Authorities expect trouble from detained
insurgents (Page 5)
MALAWI-MOZAMBIQUE: Malawi President begins visit
(Page 5)
SWEDEN: Bank merger (Page 6)
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*COMMUNIST CHINA:
Peking is in
the midst of a leadership crisis.
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some sort
of major leadership conclave in the capital began
on 12 September and apparently continued for several
days, since Premier Chou En-lai postponed scheduled
meetings with foreign visitors through 15 September.
Trade Office officials
hey were being confined to their offices
because something serious had happened "in Mao's
circle."
The obvious implication is
that Mao Tse-tung has been physically i capacitated.
belittled rumors that Mao is dead, but added a
in any case each individual should know his respon-
sibilities and carry them out.
A Ministry of Foreign Affairs official, how-
ever, reportedly stated at an embassy reception in
Peking on 22 September that Mao is in excellent
health. Nevertheless, neither his statement nor
the appearance of Madame Mao at a banquet on 20
September can be taken as authoritative confirma-
tion that Mao is not ailing. They could be easily
interpreted to mean the reverse.
If Mao is dead or incapacitated, China's un-
settled leadership coalition may have difficulty in
immediately rallying around Defense Minister Lin
24 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Piao. Despite Lin's unprecedented affirmation as
Mao's personal successor, there are serious questions
about the extent and depth of support for him in im-
portant military and civilian circles. Although
Lin's position as head of the military establishment
is a vital one, his ultimate source of authority has
always been Mao. In Mao's absence, Lin would have
to adjust his working relationships with top central
and regional military leaders who are powerful fig-
ures in their own right. Although Lin's efforts to-
ward this end have been under way for some time, the
process probably has involved considerable political
bargaining and the future role of these leaders vis-
a-vis Lin may well have been the subject of the re-
cent discussions in Peking.
Lin's health has also been poor over the years
and the possibility cannot be excluded that his phys-
ical condition, rather than Mao's, is behind the
confusion at the top. Since the formal line of suc-
cession does not extend beyond Lin, his incapacita-
tion would initiate further jockeying for position
in China's ruling hierarchy.
At this stage, there is no evidence of a de-
terioration of security in the capital or elsewhere
in the nation.
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*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item. the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
24 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EUROPEAN SPACE DEVELOPMENTS: France and West
Germany intend to continue, though at a slower pace,
development of an independent European launch ve-
hicle--Europa III--despite US offers of assistance.
Washington has offered both the use of space
launchers for European satellites and the possibility
of participation in US post-Apollo space projects.
The Europeans in general are interested in the US
offers, and believe they are very forthcoming, but
France and Germany--the major stockholders in the
Europa III project--are reluctant to abandon an
independent European effort.
Both apparently are concerned that the use of
US launchers would in effect give Washington a veto
over the launching of a European communications
satellite. Moreover, they do not consider the sep-
arate post-Apollo offer definite enough to terminate
independent research and development. The Germans,
in particular, believe they have to stick with the
European program at least until it is clear that
cooperation with the US would provide them access
to highly advanced technology that they want. More-
over, they are concerned about. upsetting relations
with France, which wants an independent launch ca-
pability primarily as a means of establishing _a
regional European communications capability.
24 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
CEYLON: Military authorities are expecting
trouble, possibly beginning tomorrow, at rehabili-
tation camps housing some 14,000 young people ar-
rested in connection with the insurgency last spring.
All the detainees, whom Prime Minister Bandaranaike
has described as "misguided youths," reportedly ex-
pect to be pardoned and released in connection with
a national holiday on Sunday. Government plans,
however, call for the release of only 3,000 insur-
gents. The army is preparing to station armored cars
at all camps to thwart escape attempts. The possi-
bility of serious clashes exists--especially if rebel
groups still at large try to aid in a jail break.
The army, however, should be able to contain such
clashes; there is little likelihood that they would
endanger overall island security. F__ I
MALAWI-MOZAMBIQUE: President Banda begins an
official three- ay visit to Portuguese Mozambique
today. The visit---Banda's first--follows his trip
to South Africa last month and represents his latest
effort to broaden Malawi's contacts with white-
ruled southern Africa. The President is expected
to visit the controversial Cabora Bassa hydroelectric
project, a symbol of Portuguese colonialism to much
of black Africa and the target of insurgent efforts
by anti-Portuguese guerrillas. Banda can be ex-
pected to use the trip to stimulate further the
nascent interest among some moderate African states
in a dialogue with southern Africa.
(continued)
24 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
SWEDEN: In probably the biggest financial deal
in Swedish history, two of Sweden's five largest com-
mercial banks have announced their intention to merge
on 1 January 1972. The two, Svenska Handelsbanken
and Stockholm's Enskilda Bank, have combined assets
of more than $4.5 billion. This move, certain to be
approved by the government, will concentrate control
and ownership of Swedish banking and industry to an
unprecedented degree in the hands of the Wallenberg
family, which has a good working relationship with
the Social Democratic Party. Through their existing
ownership of the Enskilda Bank, the Wallenbergs now
control nine of Sweden's 12 largest industrial firms.
Their controlling interest in the new Skandinaviska
Enskilda Banken will give them control of approxi-
mately 39 percent of Sweden's commercial banking
activity. A larger combined resource base will en-
able the new bank better to meet the credit needs
r'1-,--
2 4 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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