CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020400040001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 4, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 042
4 November 1971
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No. 0264/71
4 November 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Mrs. Gandhi probably will stress
need for early settlement in East Pakistan. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Government forces facing strong Communist
resistance on Route 6. (Page 3)
CHILE: Allende criticizes performance of his coali-
tion supporters. (Page 4)
EAST GERMANY: Honecker fails to resolve economic
problems. (Page 5)
IRELAND: Lynch government faces vote of confidence.
(Page 6)
ECUADOR-US: Further harassment of US fishing boats
likely. (Page 7)
ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest agrees to aid Iraqi oil in-
dustry. (Page 8)
UN - MIDDLE EAST: Reduction in food rations in
refugee camps. (Page 9)
YUGOSLAVIA-BULGARIA: Belgrade increases pressure
over Macedonia issue. (Page 10)
UN-PAKISTAN: Yahya agrees to UN personnel along
East wing border (Page 11)
TURKEY: Political crisis eases (Page 11)
SWEDEN: Opposition challenges Palme's reform bill
(Page 12)
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: Prime Minister Gandhi, during
her talks in Washington beginning today, will prob-
ably stress the need to exert more pressure on Is-
lamabad to negotiate an early political settlement
of the crisis in East Pakistan.
In Brussels, Vienna, and London, Mrs. Gandhi
did not deviate from her insistence that the only
solution lies in a political accommodation between
Islamabad and the elected representatives of the
East Bengalis. She has followed the line that India
is the innocent victim of Pakistan's internal con-
flict and that the continuing flow of refugees into
India has forced New Delhi to insist that the inter-
national community press West Pakistan to create
conditions conducive to the refugees' return. She
has dismissed as palliatives suggestions for Indo-
Pakistani discussions, troop withdrawals, or the
posting of UN observers on the frontiers.
She expects public pressure for forceful In ian
action to rise in coming weeks, particularly after
parliament convenes on 15 November and as frustra-
tion increases over the growing cost of refugee
care.
Mrs. Gandhi admitted she was not enthusiastic
about an independent Bangla Desh because it prob-
ably would be strongly leftist, but she neverthe-
less considers independence inevitable.
In Washington, Mrs. Gandhi. is likely to main-
tain that support for the government of West Paki-
stan only delays a political settlement, She may
also ask the US to use its influence to obtain the
release East Bengali leader Sheikh Mu'ibur Rah-
man.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area
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CAMBODIA: Government units trying to reopen
Route 6 are continuing to meet Communist resistance.
A Khmer Krom task force from Skoun, which had
moved up the highway past Prakham and Tang Kouk on
2 November, was ambushed yesterday shortly after it
began a two-pronged drive to clear the final four
miles of the road below the embattled village of
Rumlong. After suffering six killed and 50 wounded,
the Khmer Krom troops and their armored vehicles
pulled back to allow air strikes on suspected enemy
positions. Phnom Penh has ordered this force to
make an all-out effort to reach Rumlong today.
A second Khmer Krom relief force moving south
from Kompong Thmar apparently is still stalled on
the outskirts of Rumlong. In several days of sharp
fighting, these Khmer Krom units reportedly have
had 30 soldiers killed and another 200 wounded--
extremely heavy casualties for the Cambodian war.
The morale of government troops still appears to be
high, however, and the recent visit by Prime Minis-
ter Lon Nol to Baray probably had a salutary effect.
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CHILE: President Salvador Allende is increas-
ingly critical of his supporters and determined to
run his own show.
In a meeting with Popular Unity (UP) leaders on
25 October, Allende again deplored the performance
of his coalition and the overriding self-interest
of its member parties
e reiterated is earlier complaints a
the UP is losing public support. His annoyance also
reflects the growing criticism from leaders of both
dominant UP members, Allende's own hard-line Social-
ist Party and the orthodox Communist Party, that he
is too independent and personalistic in his exercise
of power. They consider Allende subordinate to the
coalition and resent what they reportedly see as his
"Caesar complex."
Allende has arrogated growing power to himself
following months of pressure from PS and PCCh leaders
quarreling over the handling of expropriation and
compensation of US copper interests in Chile. In
emphasizing his determination to assert himself more
strongly, Allende told UP leaders that he will han-
dle the copper matter without further guidance from
them and will extend this policy to the conduct of
international relations, particularly with the US.
The worsening of Chile's chronic economic prob-
lems and the onset of new ones under the current
government are increasingly burdensome to the gen-
eral public. Allende probably hopes to divorce him-
self from the adverse political reaction to these
problems by blaming those on whom he must depend to
govern the country. His persistent overtures to
non-Marxist political groups and to the armed forces
and his tolerance of the violent activities of the
Movement of the Revolutionary Left may be seen by
UP leaders as attempts by the President to broaden
his base of support to the left and right and to,
strengthen his hand to act independently.
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EAST GERMANY: Erich Honecker has been unable
to resolve long-standing economic problems that he
inherited upon assuming the party leadership last
May.
The regime reportedly has admitted that the
five-year plan goals approved by last June's party
congress for 1971c-7.5 cannot be achieved and that
annual goals set for the remainder of 1971 and for
1972 will, in effect, be scrapped. In the late
1960s the East German leadership pushed for too
rapid economic growth which led to widespread
shortages and foreign trade deficits. Nevertheless,
the Ulbricht regime trumpeted Pankow's "developed
system of socialism" as a model for other Communist
states.
With Ulbricht's exit, some reordering of pri-
orities has been under way, if only in piecemeal
fashion, particularly in favor of the consumer.
The regime, having learned the political lesson of
Poland, will attempt to avoid a recurrence of the
chronic winter shortages of food, power, and heat-
ing supplies. Honecker has turned off the rhetoric
about East German economic "successes."
Although there reportedly have been high-level
discussions on the "mistaken" economic decisions
made by former party chief Walter Ulbricht and his
top economic adviser Guenter Mittag, the new lead-
ership has not attempted explicitly to blame pub-
licly the serious economic situation on the actions
of the previous regime. Moreover, officials will
be anxious to avoid extensive discussion of Pankow's
economic weaknesses while the Berlin talks are go-
ing on.
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IRELAND: Prime Minister Lynch's government
faces a vote of confidence next week that could
bring it down and lead to new elections.
The opposition Fine Gael party has presented
a motion of no-confidence in Agricultural Minister
James Gibbons, who was implicated in a scandal last
year involving the smuggling of arms and ammunition
to Ulster. The question of Gibbons' integrity pro-
vides the ostensible issue for a vote of confidence
scheduled for 10 November, but Lynch's whole policy
toward Northern Ireland will be the real issue.
The vote will be very close. Lynch's Fianna
Fail party has 72 of the 144 seats in the Dail and
one or two independents may join to provide the nec-
essary majority. Several of the hard-line dissidents
in the Fianna Fail could decide to vote against the
government, however. They may be constrained by
their fear of expulsion from the party and their re-
alization that their chances of re-election would
be slim.
Because the government could have delayed the
no-confidence vote through parliamentary maneuver,
the decision to permit the motion may reflect
Lynch's view that elections at this juncture could
be useful. If the prime minister were to win a new
mandate from the electorate, he would have a much
freer hand. Lynch also is aware that the Dail will
be forced to redistrict when the latest census re-
sults become available in a few months, with the
Fianna Fail losing two or three rural constituen-
cies. Moreover, both the extremist Sinn Fein party
and the newly organized Aontacht Eireann party will
present a much more serious electoral challenge at
a later date.
Although pressure for a radical, anti-British
line is far stronger than it was a year ago, a ma-
jority in the Fianna Fail as well as in the prin-
cipal opposition parties oppose reunification of
the two Irelands by force.
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ECUADOR-US: The coming tuna season promises
to produce further harassment of US fishing boats
in waters claimed by Ecuador.
Foreign Minister Garcia Velasco has informed
the US ambassador that Ecuador intends to continue
its policy of seizing and fining foreign ships op-
erating within its claimed 200-mile territorial
limit. During the first three months of 1971 the
Ecuadoran Navy picked up 26 American boats and col-
lected fines of more than $1 million. As a result,
provisions of the 'US Foreign Military Sales Act
were invoked suspending sales and hampering the
armed forces' efforts to replace their obsolescent
equipment. Ecuador took the issue before the Or-
ganization of American States, but a compromise was
worked out that avoided condemnation of the US for
economic coercion. The government, however, ex-
pelled the US military group in retaliation.
Garcia stated that if events followed a similar
pattern during the coming tuna season, he would make
the "largest and noisiest possible issue" of the
matter. He added that these protests would not be
limited to the OAS but would be made in the UN and
any other forum available. He indicated that he
expected support from a large number of underdevel-
oped countries. Ecuador's previous actions in this
field suggest that the government will follow through
on these threats.
President Velasco now is ruling with dictato-
rial powers but is committed to holding elections
in June 1972. Should he decide to cancel the elec-
tions, a dispute with the US could provide a useful
distraction for the general public.
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest's first economic as-
sistance to Iraq marks a significant improvement in
bilateral relations, which have been poor since
June 1967 when Romania refused to condemn Israel
during the six-day war.
The agreement calls for Romania to provide $35
million for the development of the Iraqi petroleum
industry in exchange for future deliveries of oil.
The Romanians are to undertake surveys, to give
technical assistance, and to provide various kinds
of machinery and equipment. Because transportation
costs would be very high, Romania apparently will
not import Iraqi oil as long as the Suez Canal re-
mains closed. In the interim Bucharest may sell or
barter the oil to third countries, but only at
prices agreed upon with the Iraq National Oil Com-
pany.
Romania joins the USSR and several other East
European countries in helping to develop the Iraqi
oil industry. Most of the assistance these coun-
tries are providing also will be repaid with oil
from the North Rumaila field, which Iraq expects to
begin exporting early next year.
At present Bucharest obtains nearly all of its
Middle East oil from Iran via the Trans-Israeli pipe-
line. Romania, however, would take delivery of the
Iraqi oil the Persian Gulf for shipment to other
countries
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UN - MIDDLE EAST: A sharp reduction in rations
in the Middle East refugee camps is raising new prob-
lems for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and
the host governments.
A number of logistical difficulties, including
the US dock strike, have contributed to severe short-
ages, which may not be eased before late January.
The problem is especially acute in Jordan, where
UNRWA and the government were forced to reduce the
daily ration of flour by about 35 percent on Monday.
The refugees have refused to accept the reduction
and have sent 60 of their leaders to meet with UNRWA
officials and the Jordanian prime minister.
UNRWA flour supplies in the camps of Syria and
Lebanon appear barely adequate to meet anticipated
needs in those areas. The Gaza Strip and West Bank
refugee camps in Israeli-occupied territory are
worse off, and in Gaza some ration reductions have
started. CARE may provide temporary supplies from
its current surplus in the Middle East now that the
Israeli Government has agreed to replenish its
stocks if necessary.
The US Embassy in Amman has cautioned that a
complete cutoff of flour rations would create an
"intolerable political problem" for the Husayn gov-
ernment. The General Assembly will soon begin meet-
ing at the committee level to consider whether to
extend UNRWA's mandate which expires next June. Be-
fore the mandate is extended, the agency's chronic
fiscal deficits and recent Israeli security measures
against the population the Gaza Strip camps are
certain to be raised,
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YUGOSLAVIA-BULGARIA: Belgrade appears to be
increasing pressure on Bulgaria over the Macedonia
issue.
Relations, strained by Yugoslav reaction to ir-
redentist propaganda in Bulgaria, worsened last Sun-
day when it was announced that a Bulgarian citizen
in the Yugoslav Macedonian Republic had been sen-
tenced to five years' hard labor for espionage.
Newspapers in Macedonia have taken up the cry by
attacking Bulgaria for "unconcealed territorial"
claims.
The Tito regime suspects Moscow has encouraged
past Bulgarian agitation on the Macedonian issue.
The Yugoslavs claim Brezhnev agreed to curtail hos-
tile clandestine activities during his visit in Sep-
tember. That Belgrade appears willing to use the
Bulgarian spy case to test Moscow's real intentions
may indicate the influence of those highly placed
Yugoslavs who are dissatisfied with the limited com-
promises Brezhnev made during his talks with Tito.
Last week Sofia decided--possibly at Soviet
behest--to sack an editor guilty of advancing Bul-
garian irredentist attitudes. This action may have
been a sop to Yugoslav sensitivities, but Belgrade
now senses a tactical advantage and is probably
oing to push for more substantive concessions.
I
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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UN-PAKISTAN: In a conversation with the US
ambassador on Tuesday, Pakistani President Yahya
Khan agreed in principle to the stationing of UN
relief personnel in East Pakistan along the border
with India. The 1UN teams would be located in more
than 20 reception centers for Bengali refugees seek-
ing to return home after fleeing to India. The Pak-
istani Government had resisted such an arrangement
for months, noting that New Delhi refused to permit
any posting of UN personnel in its border areas.
In late October Yahya wrote Secretary?General Thant
.offering to accept a UN observer mission along the
frontier if India also would do so. Yahya's coop-
erative attitude on this and other subjects raised
by the ambassador reflects Pakistan's desire to
demonstrate its flexibility to the detriment of In-
dia. F 25X1
?k ~c 9r at
TURKEY: The threat of military intervention
has forced the Justice Party to suspend its decision
to withdraw from Prime Minister Erim's cabinet,
easing the month-long political crisis. Both Pres-
ident Sunay and armed forces chief General Tagmac
made strong public statements of support for Erim
and his reforms, and top military officers report-
edly have agreed that the continuation of Erim in
office was the only alternative to a military take-
over. Erim's chances of pushing his reforms through
the Justice Party - dominated parliament have been
improved by this strong show of support. I- I
(continued)
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SWEDEN: Sweden's three non-Socialist opposition
parties have managed to agree on a ,draft economic re-
form program directly challenging Prime'Minister
Palme's own reform bill in parliament. Paime's stop-
gap efforts last month to check a recessionary trend
evoked widespread criticism that they were ineffec-
tive and clearly provided the impetus, heretofore
lacking, for the usually divergent opposition par-
ties to band together. Although the opposition par-
ties' program has not been submitted to parliament,
their joint action could bode ill for Palme. His
Social Democrats control only 163 of parliament's
350 seats, and have depended upon a divided cppos-i-
tion to maintain themselves in power.
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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