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December 14, 2016
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May 22, 2003
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December 3, 1971
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Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0206&t-6 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret No. 042 State Dept. review completed 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0206301foer 19 71 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Approved For Release 200ekff-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 'SE No. 0289/71 3 December 1971 Central Intelligence Bulletin CHILE: Uneasy truce follows government crackdown on opposition protests. (Page 1) 25X1 WEST GERMANY: Christian Democrats avoid commitment to oppose ratification of Moscow treaty. (Page 4) EAST GERMANY: Debate continues over future economic policy. Page 5) YUGOSLAVIA: Struggle between Tito and Croat leaders comes to a head. (Page 7) INDIA: West Bengal attempts to stimulate state's economy. (Page 8) WARSAW PACT: Foreign ministers' communique (Page 9) SUDAN-EGYPT: Relations cool (Page 9) Approved For Release 200~Vpj 1~4-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 200LR.E1-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 C CHILE: There is an uneasy truce in Santiago following the Allende government's sharp crackdown on opposition protests. The imposition of a state of emergency on 2 December will inhibit further opposition demonstra- tions that were planned and curtail critical press comment. Tensions are running high, however, and some incidents continue to occur. There is much resentment over.the treatment of several thousand women whose demonstration against the government set off the violence. The numbers and determina- tion of the female marchers apparently surprised the government, which provided only minimal police escort. This was inadequate to protect the women against stonings and other attacks by leftist goon squads. The police themselves caused many of the numerous injuries by using tear gas heavily against marchers and bystanders in downtown Santiago. Charges have been brought in Congress against In- terior Minister Toha as responsible for the police behavior. Toha has charged the outbreaks are part of a seditious plot. Aware that further repressive measures could trigger greater public disapproval, the government will now probably lean heavily on propaganda claims that the Christian Democrats, Chilean rightists, and the US are trying to bring down Allende. The women's march was the most recent evidence of mounting disgruntlement among students, workers, businessmen and other Chileans. One of the most serious disagreements continues to be the admin- istration's plans to reorganize and exert control over the University of Chile. After several weeks of violence, the rector has collected enough sig- natures to call a plebiscite on the issue on 21 December. Approval would greatly strengthen his hand against the administration-dominated governing council of the university. (continued) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3 Approved For Release 2003*91`~~-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/ C A DP79TOO975AO20600060001-6 Meanwhile, Army General Augusto Pinochet, who is in command of Santiago under the state of emer- gency, is attempting to get opposition students to vacate the university buildings they have held for some time in defiance of the government and attack- ing leftist students. Pinochet is reportedly in line to become commander in chief of the army soon and will probably heed Allende's instructions care- fully during this tense period. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/Oflff --DP79TOO975AO20600060001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/R(EkIRDP79T00975A020600060001-6 WEST GERMANY: Rainer Barzel, the opposition candidate for C ancellor, is not yet ready formally to commit his party to oppose ratification of the German-Soviet treaty. Barzel, chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has rejected an explicit statement to this effect proposed by the CDU's smaller Bavarian affiliate, the Christian Socialist Union (CSU), for inclusion in the new CDU/CSU joint program. Barzel has long fought to retain maneuverability on this question by blocking what he considered premature commitment to oppose ratification. There is little doubt, however, that Barzel shares the dislike of the treaty held by most Chris- tian Democrats and particularly by Franz Josef Strauss and his CSU. Barzel indicated that he might be will- ing to adopt a more forthright position once the inter-German talks have ended. In other respects, the CDU/CSU program is largely a rehash of their well-known views. Pro- moting Western unity is given highest priority while reconciliation with East, which Brandt has stressed, plays a secondary role. On domestic affairs, the program seeks support from a broad spectrum with its moderately progressive positions, but it also clearly appeals to the conservatives with such proposals as weeding out radicals from the civil service and uni- versities. The new program is a personal triumph for Bar- zel, who was formally confirmed as chancellor-candi- date on 29 November. He had the firm support of other CDU leaders and completely overshadowed Strauss in the drafting sessions. Barzel has publicly said, however, that Strauss will hold a prominent portfolio in his shadow cabinet. 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/bfifi PTRDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 200,fXFffiRZ&-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 EAST GERMANY: The specific goals of the five- year plan 1971-75) are apparently still under mod- ification and there are indications that debate about the future thrust of economic policy is continuing. Premier Stoph, in a recent address to the East German People's Chamber, promised that the draft plan for 1972, as well as for the five-year period, soon will be submitted for "discussion and approval." He said that all related problems and tasks will be explained in detail at that time. Draft goals were published last June, but the new regime apparently decided that it would replace clearly unattainable targets with more realistic ones. Stoph attributed present economic difficulties to imbalances in previous investment priorities. The regime is particularly concerned about serious agricultural failures. Three consecutive years of bad weather have struck a blow to the hope that alternative use could be made of the investment resources that have gone to agriculture. An offi- cial noted that this year imports valued at almost $180 million were necessary to make up for the short- fall in grain production alone. The prospect of organizational changes was sug- gested by repeated references to the need to perfect management and to strengthen centralized control over the economy. The regime also promised to cut the size of the administrative bureaucracy and to shift technical skills now allocated to the admin- istrative sphere to production. New jobs are not to be created unless the same amount of labor is economized elsewhere. The East German worker once again will be called upon to increase production rates without increased resources. In anticipation of another winter of chronic food, power, and fuel supply shortages, vague state- ments were made about the plan's aim to improve further the standard of living. It is clear, how- ever, that the first order of business will be to 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 200$XA-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003 IBIT RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 attempt to solve the broader economic problems that Pankow has faced over a period of years and to at- tempt to placate the people with promises of a better future if they work harder now. 3 Dec 7l Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003' ?k'iE-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/91 3 kGlA,-.R DP79T00975A020600060001-6 YUGOSLAVIA: The climax of a sharp intra-party strugg e etween an angry Tito and Croat leaders could come during today's second session of a fed- eral party presidium meeting. In a speech at the first session yesterday, Tito accused some members of the Croat party leader- ship of "rotten liberalism, levity and lack of vigilance," and called for the federal party to take the strongest action against them. Tito blamed the student strike in Zagreb on "counter-revolution- ary forces" flourishing under the loose rein of the republic party leadership. He said there are only a few hundred chauvinists in Croatia but that they have created a wide base of support. Tito has differed with the liberal Croats be- fore and it remains to be seen whether or how he will settle accounts this time. Tito said that he had met with the Croat party leaders for over 20 hours--probably late last week after he returned several days early from his annual meeting with Ceausescu--trying to convince them of their errors. Earlier this week Croat party leaders Mrs. Savka Dabcevie-Kucar and Mika Tripalo referred vaguely during radio and television appearances to criticism of their leadership and made an all-out attempt to convince students to drop their strike. Ironically, Tito's attack comes at a time when the strike is losin momentum and a return to order seems imminent. 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0.7ft RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003/0733 A- RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 INDIA: The state government of West Bengal reportedly is granting a new round cf concessions to industry in order to boost the state's economy. Industrial units will be exempt from payment of sales tax for six years and will be eligible for interest-free loans equivalent to 30 percent of working capital. Loans would not have to be re- paid until the firms become profitable. In addi- tion, the state government is proposing a ten- percent capital subsidy for small industrial units in selected backward areas. West Bengal has been hit hard by political instability, an inadequate supply of raw materials, massive labor disruptions, and a lack of finances. Although the state government is dealing firmly with labor problems and there has been some im- provement in the law and order situation, almost three quarters of the state's industrial units are operating below 50 percent of capacity and over 300 firms remain closed. The state's plight is aggravated by the massive influx of refugees from Pakistan. The central government, apparently prompted by the failure of earlier efforts to revive in- dustry, announced a 16-point progran to spur in- dustrial production in the state three months ago. This program, however, has not been implemented. 25X1 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003Q /31A tRDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Approved For Release 200$I1,.E3A-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 NOTES WARSAW PACT: The communique issued following this week's conference of the Pact foreign ministers is aimed at increasing pressure on the West on the eve of the NATO ministerial meeting for a more forth- coming attitude toward early convocation of a Confer- ence on European Security and Cooperation. It says that the bloc governments plan to name plenipoten- tiary representatives for multilateral preparatory talks, and it calls on other interested states to follow suit and to initiate practical preparations to permit convening of a conference during 1972. The. statement does not mention mutual force reduc- tions in Europe. SUDAN-EGYPT: Su an s relations with Egypt have become markedly cool as a result of President Numa ri's effort to improve re- lations with the West. Ithe deterioration in relations resulted in part rom the fact that Sadat visited Moscow while Sudan's relations with the USSR were at a low point as a result of the unsuccessful Communist-backed coup last July in the Sudan. According to the US Inter- ests Section, recent public statements by Numayri, in contrast to past months, have not touched on the Confederation of Arab Republics or on general ties binding Egypt and the Sudan, but have instead merely emphasized Sudanese support for the Arab mission in the "battle of destiny." According to a rumor cir- culating in Khartoum, a high-level Egyptian emissary recently visited the Sudan, but was not received by Numayri. Numayri cannot permit relations with Egypt to deteriorate too far, and the US Interests Section believes that to prevent such a deterioration Numayri may hold off on the anticipated resumption in rela- tions with the US. 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 20OWECWA-RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Approved For Release 2003ekm,RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 The United States Intelligence Board on 2 De- cember 1971 approved the following national intelli- gence estimate: NIE 29.2-71 "Turkey's Prospects" 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/RFUR RDP79T00975A020600060001-6 Secretproved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6 Secret Approved For Release 2003/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO20600060001-6