CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020600080001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 6, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
On file DOC release instructions apply.
DIA review(s) completed.
Secret
N2 042
6 December 1971
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No. 0291/71
6 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian forces continue to advance
in East Pakistan. (Page 1)
SOUTH KOREA: President Pak is moving to increase
his personal power. (Page 5)
CAMBODIA: The Communists are maintaining pressure
in the Phnom Penh area. (Page 7)
URUGUAY: By latest count, the Colorados have barely
won the presidency. (Page 8)
POLAND-US: The Poles were forthcoming on economic
matters during Secretary Stans' visit. (Page 9)
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: The foreign ministers will try
to solve bilateral problems. (Page 11)
WEST GERMANY -- EAST GERMANY: Delay in agreements
(Page 12)
ARAB STATES - FEDAYEEN: Libyan "commandos" in
Syria (Page 12)
CHILE: Calm under emergency regulations (Page 13)
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EL SALVADOR: Accused plotters fired (Page 13)
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I N D I A
Shillongo
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian forces continue to ad-
vance in East Pakistan, while both sides claim some
progress on the western front.
In East Pakistan, major Indian thrusts are con-
tinuing in the northwestern districts of Dinajpur
and Rangpur, where the Indians outnumber Pakistani
troops by at least two to one. Elsewhere in the
province, the Indians say they have captured Kamal-
pur in Mymensingh District. They also claim they
have cut the rail and road networks south of Comilla
and have taken the town of Akhaura, and that they
are continuing to make progress in the S lhet and
Jessore areas.
India's objective in a as is to -
plete.liberation of Bangla Desh and the total sur-
render of the Pakistani forces in the province.
Although ground action on the India - West Pak-
istan front has been increasing, it is not as wide-
spread as in. the East and neither side appears to
be making clear-cut major gains. The Pakistanis
claim to have made some inroads in two arpn- of Kash-
mir, and they are
planning for assault in the Kargil region. In
the Punjab area the Pakistanis have launched offen-
sives toward Amritsar, Ferozepur, and Fazilka.
India has admitted some loss of territory but says
it has halted the advances. The Indians claim they
are advancing in two sectors in West Pakistan's
Sind Province, and that they have captured the town
of Gadra after repulsing a Pakistani tank attack.
However, Indian spokesmen assert that their side
has not launched a major invasion of West Pakistan
In the air war, Pakistan now claims to have
shot down or damaged 61 Indian aircraft while New
Delhi says it has destroyed 47 Pakistani planes.
Neither claim can be substantiated. On the eastern
front, New Delhi apparently has achieved complete j
6 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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AFGH04ISTAN
WEST
PAKISTAN
Kalat
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Sarpodpa
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Gujranwata
INDIA
New Bel
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air superiority and is using its air force to sup-
port its ground offensive.
The Indians continue to bomb and strafe mili-
tary targets in major cities in both East and West
Pakistan. Fuel storage tanks in the Dacca and Chit-
tagong areas of East Pakistan and in the West Pak-
istani port of Karachi are being hard hit.
The navies of both countries have also been
active, a departure from the two previous Indo-Pak-
istani wars when naval forces kept out of the ac-
tion. The Indian Navy is blockading ports in both
East and West Pakistan. In a naval engagement off
the Karachi coast on 5 December, the Indians claim
to have sunk two Pakistani destroyers and subse-
quently to have shelled the Karachi port. Pakistan
has admitted. the loss of one destroyer to an Osa-
class cruise missile boat, one of eight the Indians
have obtained from the Soviets. The numerical
superiority of India's fleet should give it a de-
cided advantage in any further naval combat.
The Soviet Union continues to give. India its
full public support and to hold itself aloof from
any attempts to end the hostilities. Moscow's ad-
herence to the line that Pakistan is to blame for
the situation--and that resolution of the conflict
can come only with a political settlement in East
Pakistan--has been reaffirmed in public statements
by Premier Kosygin in Denmark, in the Soviet veto
of cease-fire proposals at the UN, and in a state-
ment released by TASS in Moscow on 5 December.
An official in Kosygin's party stated-that
this situation was different from the 1965 conflict
which the Soviets mediated at Tashkent, and that
this time the Soviets could do nothing themselves
to halt the war. The TASS statement warned all
governments to refrain from taking steps that might
involve them in the conflict and lead to further ag-
gravation of the situation. The warning was prob-
ably aimed primarily at China, which has accused
6 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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India of instigating "large-scale aggression"
against Pakistan. Although the governments of India
and the USSR are keeping in close contact, the So-
viet leadership is maintaining a relaxed appearance.
Kosygin is continuing his visits to Denmark and
Norway, and party chief Brezhnev left Moscow by
train on 4 December as head of a delegation to the
Polish party congress opening in Warsaw on 6 December.
Peking has predictably condemned Indian and
Soviet actions in the crisis but has given no indi-
cation of any change in its policy of avoiding di-
rect involvement while maintaining cautious politi-
cal and military assistance to the Pakistani Govern-
ment. Although it has characterized the situation
as "grave," China's commentary has not adopted a
menacing tone but has focused instead on demands
for an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of
Indian forces. Chinese officials in Peking and at
the UN have continued to place prime responsibility
for the current hostilities on Moscow, characteriz-
ing the USSR as the chief instigator of New Delhi's
"aggressive" policy. All Chinese statements have
reaffirmed "firm support" for Islamabad but have
been no more specific about the actual nature of
Chinese assistance than other recent announcements
from Peking.
The UN Security Council adjourned late last
night, having been stymied for the second time this
weekend by a Soviet veto of a US-supported draft
resolution calling for both a cease-fire and with-
drawal of troops. A separate Soviet resolution,
blaming the crisis situation solely on Pakistan,
received only Poland's backing. The only text that
remains formally before the Council is a Chinese
draft focusing on Indian incursions; because of
the certainty that it would fail, the Chinese have
asked that it not be voted on pending further de-
velopments. Only a simple cease-fire resolution
has not been tried, and even such a text would prob-
ably encounter a Soviet veto at this time. The
Council will reconvene this afternoon.
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SOUTH KOREA: President Pak has initiated a
series of moves that will increase his personal
power.
In a statement to the nation yesterday Pak
declared a "state of national emergency"--just
short of martial law--and will reportedly call for
legislation to give him powers to strengthen the
defenses of Seoul and further restrict the press.
Some ma-ior personnel changes may also follow.!
I The announced purpose of Pak's action is
tive measures on the grounds that there is an in-
creasingly serious possibility of North Korean
aggression.
These moves are the culmination of a two-month-
long government campaign in which the threat from
the North has been given extensive play in the press
as well as in official statements and documents.
There is no evidence suggesting such an attack is
imminent. These new measures, therefore, seem
motivated by domestic political considerations.
Concern over the state of the economy as well
as the general great-power realignments in East
Asia are undoubtedly factors in Pak's desire for a
tighter grip on affairs. This desire has probably
been reinforced by his success through decisive
action in quashing student disorders and recent
factionalism within his own party. None of these
issues seems sufficient, however, to cause Pak to
take a major political step that risks serious
domestic and international criticism. It may be,
therefore, that the new measures represent the
start of a longer-range plan to curb political in-
trigues already unleashed by Pak's pledge to retire
in 1975, and to prepare a case for prolonging his
tenure in office.
6 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: The Communists are maintaining
pressure in the Phnom Penh area.
Several government positions around the capi-
tal were attacked over the weekend with the sharp-
est fighting west of the city. C The heaviest losses
have been reported at Bat Dong, where there were some
50 casualties among government forces. 3 These ac-
tions probably are the work of elements from the
enemy's Phuoc Long Front that remain close to Phnom
Penh. US aerial observers continue to report enemy
fortifications and trenching near major Front unit
locations.
In eastern Kompong Cham Province near Dambe,
the South Vietnamese continue to meet.scattered,
light Communist opposition in their two-week old
dry season campaign. Recent sharp mortar attacks
in the Dambe area suggest that the Communists may
increase their resistance to future South Vietnamese
operations in this area.
The government's Chenla II campaign has been
officially terminated, but an accurate account of
losses is likely to take considerable time. Prime
Minister Lon Nol has ordered a formal investigation
to determine "what went wrong" during the operation,
especially the rout of government troops from Baray.
Remnants of the northern task force, meanwhile, are
still straggling into Tang Kouk and Kompong Thom.
A large influx of soldiers, dependents, and refugees
into Kompong Thom has severely aggravated the supply
situation there. The US defense attache reports
that the situation is now generally calm elsewhere
along Route 6.
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URUGUAY: The Interior Ministry's "final pre-
liminary" results of the elections on 28 November
give the Colorados the presidency by less than
10,000 votes over the major opposition Blanco Party,
but the definitive tally may not be: known until late
January.
Absentee and challenged ballots, still un-
counted, are estimated at about 160,000 and the of-
ficial recount including these ballots will require
some weeks to complete. Some confusion already ex-
ists over the ministry's count to date, because its
figure for the total valid vote is 25,000 less than
the combined total of the votes of all the individual
parties it has announced thus far.
In past elections, absentee and challenged bal-
lots have not significantly altered the percentage
results of the preliminary count, and most observers
apparently feel that the conservative Colorado, Juan
Maria Bordaberry, will be the next president. If
the uncounted ballots--most of which were probably
cast in Montevideo by residents of interior depart-
ments--are split along the lines of the interior
vote which favored the Blancos, the final result
will be exceedingly close.
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POLAND-US: The Poles were forthcoming in sev-
eral bilateral economic areas during Commerce Secre-
tary Stans' brief stopover in Warsaw.
A Ministry of Foreign Trade official said Po-
land would like to double US-Polish trade from its
current level of about $160 million "in a few years."
He provided a list of capital equipment with an ap-
proximate value of $350 million that Warsaw wants
to buy from the US; preliminary estimates are that
more than $300 million worth of these purchases
will not present licensing problems.
Of potentially greater significance than an in-
crease in commodity trade were Polish overtures in
the investment field. Although Premier Jaroszewicz
initially adhered to last month's decision by Warsaw
to permit joint ventures with Western firms on the
basis of 51-49 percent participation, after consul-
tation with an attending party economic official
he agreed it would be proper to consider a variant
providing for 50-50 shares. At the Ministry of For-
eign Trade the Stans party was told that US invest-
ment would be welcome in the development of Poland's
copper, zinc, and soda ash industries. As a final
gesture, the Poles at the last minute dropped their
objections to the establishment of a US trade center
in Warsaw.
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Northern Segment of the COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA Boundary
Venezuelan
claim Colombia
claim
1
NETHERLANDS
_ ANTILLES
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VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: The two governments have
decided to make an "earnest effort" to solve bilat-
eral problems during Venezuelan Foreign Minister
Calvani's visit to Bogota next week.
Calvani and Colombian Foreign Minister Vazquez
hope to find some agreement that might represent a
breakthrough on the thorny dispute over the Gulf of
Venezuela, on which working negotiations are to re-
sume in February. During recent talks in Rome, both
sides held rigidly to their widely divergent posi-
tions. Venezuela maintains the entire gulf is not
territorial sea but its inland water, straight north-
east to the northern point of the Paraguana penin-
sula. Colombia insists that the boundary line be
at a right angle to the shore, southeastward to a
point equidistant from both shores and thence north.
Both sides have serious doubt that a formula
taking account of military and political exigencies
in both countries can be found. Some pessimism has
been dissolved, however, by the euphoria over the
close coincidence of the views of the two countries
on law of the sea matters during the Caribbean for-
eign ministers conference two weeks ago.
With the continuing cordiality established over
the past few months, the foreign ministers can prob-
ably make progress at least on other issues. On the
agenda are problems of contraband and of the hun-
dreds of thousands of Colombians living and working
illegally in Venezuela. Possibilities for economic
cooperation will also be discussed. The intense
friendly activity should serve also to keep down
the war fever that raged between the two neighbors
last spring.
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NOTES
WEST GERMANY - EAST GERMANY: The inter-German
and inner-Berlin agreements probably will not be
initialed before 7 December. The delay in the in-
itialing, which had been expected to take place on
4 December, was ordered by the West Berlin Senat
partly in order to permit its negotiator to seek
further improvements on a few technical problems
in the inner-Berlin agreement. More important,
however, the delay will also allow Social Demo-
cratic (SPD) leaders in West Berlin and Bonn to
try to head off last-minute criticism from the
Free Democrats over the quota provided in the draft
agreement for visits of West Berliners to East Ber-
lin. The SPD will hope to settle this disagreement
as quickly and quietly as possible, for its hopes
to ratify the Eastern treaties next year hinge upon
the support of the Free Democrats.
ARAB STATES - FEDAYEEN: A contingent of
Libyan
"commandos" arrived in Syria recently for the
an-
nounced
purpose of reinforcing the Palestinian
guer-
rillas
in that country. The force is believed
to
number
about 300, but there is no information
on
where the unit will be stationed. If it joins
fedayeen forces near the Jordanian border, it could
add to the instability in that area and complicate
the reopening of the border to commercial traffic.
Libyan Prime Minister Qadhafi has long sought to
station troops in Syria but Damascus had been re-
luctant to go along. Qadhafi most likely brought
the Syrians around by promising them increased
financial support.
(continued)
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CHILE: Santiago continues relatively calm
under the emergency regulations decreed last Thurs-
day after the street violence caused by attacks on
antigovernment demonstrators. An opposition move
to impeach Allende's interior minister has been
deferred by a scheduled congressional recess of
several days thus giving the government time to
work out a "compromise" with the divided Christian
Democratic Party. President Allende is facing
strong pressures from within his coalition for
harsher policies against opposition "provocateurs,"
but his clear concern over the reactions of Chilean
military leaders will argue for a cautious balance
in his tactics.
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EL SALVADOR: President Fidel Sanchez, in a
surprise move, has fired five important military of-
ficers because of their involvement in coup plotting.
This action is probably intended as a warning to the
others who may be involved. There have been vague
rumors of discontent among the middle grade officers
recently. The sudden firing of some of the plotters
will no doubt increase tensions between the Presi-
dent and the military, and Sanchez will have to be
very persuasive in dealing with the military if he
is to maintain a calm atmosphere as the February
elections approach.
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