CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020600090001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 7, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 42
7 December 1971
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No. 0292/71
7 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: India is trying to win quickly in
East Pakistan while fighting a holding action on
the western front. (Page 1)
ITALY: Assessment of presidential election pros-
pects. (Page 3)
LAOS: North Vietnamese capture Saravane. (Page 5)
BURMA: New Communist offensive in northeast.
Page 7)
JAPAN: Export surge continues (Page 8)
CONGO: Political showdown (Page 8)
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C INDIA-PAKISTAN: India is trying to win quickly
in East ., Pakistan while fighting a holding action on
the western front.
Indian forces have met stiff resistance
at several points and have not yet taken any of East
Pakistan's main cities, but the Indians appear to be
generally gaining ground and are not known to have
suffered any significant setbacks. They have made
sizable inroads in the northwestern portion of the
province, and they claim to have captured or sur-
rounded a number of important towns and key loca-
tions elsewhere.
The Pakistanis have indicated that they will
try hard to prevent the loss of major East Pakistani
centers such as Dacca or Jessore. However, with
India dominating air and sea routes, the Pakistani
troops in the East have little hope of receiving
supplies or reinforcements. They also have no ap-
parent means of escaping from the province. Their
resistance to India's advancing forces has probably
been partly due to their fear of falling into the
hands of the Bengali guerrillas, many of whom un-
doubtedly want revenge for Pakistani atrocities
against the Ben ali populace.
he Indian Army is seeking to
counter is problem by broadcasting to Pakistani
troops that all prisoners will remain under Indian
control and receive good treatment. East Pakistan's
minority Biharis, or non-Bengali Muslims, are also
in. danger of Bengali reprisals because of the as-
sistance many Biharis have given to the Pakistani
Army.
On the India - West Pakistan front.,.. Pakistani.
forces have advanced a few miles into Indian Kash-
mir and Punjab State, and may still be planning
7 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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E stronger thrusts. The Indians in turn have made
some encroachments in Sind Province, but they claim
they are not seeking any permanent territorial gains
in West Pakistan. Mrs. Gandhi has indicated that
additional troops will be transferred to the western
front once Indian objectives have been achieved in
the East, but it is not clear whether the Indians
then intend to step up their offensive efforts in
the West.
In the air war, India has apparently established
domination of the skies over East Pakistan. How-
ever, Pakistan continues to vie with the Indians for
air superiority on the western front. India con-
tinues to bomb and strafe assorted military targets
in and around Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, while
Pakistani planes yesterday attacked two air bases
in western India and reportedly strafed Bombay.
At the UN, with the USSR expected to continue
blocking any Security Council efforts to halt the
fighting before East Pakistan falls, several coun-
tries have joined the US in proposing that the Gen-
eral Assembly take up the matter this morning. How-
ever, any resolution adopted there would be merely
a recommendation. China, meanwhile, is stepping up
its condemnations of Indian and Soviet actions in
the crisis, but there are no indications that Peking
intends to swerve from its policy of avoiding direct
involvement. Chinese media now appear to be pre-
paring their readers for an eventual Pakistani de-
feat; Peking's recent accounts of the fighting have
painted a gloomy picture, omitting all reports of
Pakistani military successes
7 Dec 71 Central tntelli;ence Bulletin
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ITALY: None of the prospective candidates in
the presidential election that begins on 9 December
appears to have an unshakeable lead.
Senate President Fanfani has been the most ac-
tive candidate in seeking vote commitments from the
1,009 members of the Electoral College consisting
of Parliament and 58 regional electors. 25X1
Fanfani is counting on
winning with a most solid Christian Democratic,
neofascist, and monarchist support, plus backing
from electors closely tied to the government cor-
porations, in which he exerts strong influence.
In fact, a split in the Christian Democratic
vote is likely and this would preclude Fanfani's
victory unless he wins support from the left.I
The PCI ontinues to favor the
candidacy of Foreign Minister Aldo Moro, a Christian
Democrat, although it has agreed publicly to support
a Socialist on the first ballot.
The Social Democrats will vote for incumbent
Giuseppe Sara at on the initial ballots and
F I will be joins y
the business-oriented Liberals. The Socialists
will back Chamber President Pertini initially and
the Republicans will probably cast blank ballots
at first
The first three rounds of balloting, during
which a two-thirds majority is required, are likely
to show party inclinations but unlikely to produce
a winner. After the third ballot, a majority is
sufficient for election. Real horse-trading among
the parties and party factions will probably begin
this weekend.
7 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
LAOS: The North Vietnamese have captured Sara-
vane in suth Laos and appear to be setting the stage
for renewed action in the north.
A North Vietnamese force estimated at three to
five battalions yesterday overwhelmed a Lao Army
battalion defending Saravane and forced it to with-
draw westward. The size of the Communist force, how-
ever, tends to confirm earlier indications that new
enemy units--probably elements of the 2nd Division--
are moving into south Laos for the dry season offen-
sive.
Two irregular task forces are still keeping the
enemy off balance along the northern edge of the
Bolovens Plateau. Irregular patrols have turned up
several small caches and put nine trucks out of ac-
tion, but enemy resistance has been increasing during
the past few days. If elements of the 2nd NVA Di
vision are now around Saravane and turn south, they
could pose a significant threat to the government's
ability to operate in the Thateng area.
In north Laos, pilots and ground observers have
reported improvements in the North Vietnamese road-
net east of the Plaine des Jarres during the past
week. Pilots report that a new road now links Route
7 in the north with Route 4 in the south. If true
it would permit supplies to be trucked along the
eastern edges of the Plaine. In addition, the Com-
munists are improving Route 72, a main road between
the North Vietnamese border and the southern Plaine.
Pilots have also noted increasing numbers of enemy
troo s in the theast of the Plaine.
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AREA
OF MAP
Myitkyin*.
$ong S
Com nisi '
in rgent
~tivity
CH1!A
LAOS
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BURMA: Communist insurgents have launched
what appears to be a sharp new offensive in north-
east Burma.
The district town of Kunlong in northern Shan
State has been under virtual siege since 20 Novem-
ber, according to recently available information.
The Communists have interdicted roads into the town
and have overrun nearby Burmese Army camps. Kunlong
itself has been under mortar attack, and civilians
are fleeing the town. The Kunlong area is being
defended by about 1,000 government troops, and is
receiving air support. The government is organizing
relief columns. Prime Minister Ne Win, who is ex
pected to return this week from a two-month medical
leave in London, has been kept informed daily on
the Kunlong situation.
The offensive against Kunlong seems to run
counter to the Communists' strategy of de-emphasizing
large-scale military actions, but it is too early to
tell whether it portends an aggressive dry season
campaign. The some 4,000 Communists along the Chi-
nese border until the latest outbreak have confined
themselves to attacks on less strategic targets.
Burmese leaders apparently interpreted the Communists'
unusually restrained 1970-71 campaign as evidence
that Peking had reduced its support to the insurgents
or was otherwise reining them in. If so, Rangoon
may now have second thoughts about assuming that
the rapprochement with China will solve the insur-
gency problem, but the Burmese will be reluctant to
interpret insurgent actions as evidence of Chinese
bad faith.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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SECRET
JAPAN: Despite the US surcharge and apprecia-
tion of the yen, the number of export letters of
credit opened last month--a leading indicator of ex-
ports--was up 26 percent over the November 1970
level. Actual exports to the US reportedly were 22
percent higher than during November 1970. Tokyo is
becoming increasingly concerned that its continued
export surge could lead to demands for more export
restraints. Meanwhile, imports continue to increase
slowly because of the country's economic slowdown.
The over-all trade surplus this year could easily
exceed $7 billion, the largest recorded by any coun-
CONGO: A showdown between President Ngouabi
and his radical opponents within the regime could
occur at a meeting of the ruling Congolese Workers
Party now under way in Brazzaville. In the wake
of a student strike late last month, Ngouabi pub-
licly announced that he would seek party approval
for the dismissal of certain high-level "opportun-
ists." Political maneuvering within the regime re-
portedly has intensified in recent weeks. 1 :1
suggest army strongman Ngouabi
really is serious this time but leave in doubt his
ability to pull off a sweeping purge in what has
been a standoff contest. The outcome probably rests
on the amount of dissension Ngouabi's proposed
changes evoke in the military where the radicals
also enjoy some support. Meanwhile, the students
have been promised more social services and all
schools are open again.
7 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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