CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020600100001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 8, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
8 December 1971
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No. 0293/71
8 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Fighting in the West reportedly
intensifies; Pakistanis continue resistance in the
East. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Communists continue to strengthen posi-
tions near Phnom Penh. (Page 5)
CHILE: Allende's hand may be temporarily strength-
ened against his opponents. (Page 6)
LIBYA-UK: Libya nationalizes BP oil company and
witT -hdraws Libyan assets from UK banks. (Page 7)
POLAND: Gierek outlines visions of affluence with-
out presenting specific programs. (Page 8)
NIGERIA-GUINEA: Lagos apparently shipping military
supplies to Conakry. (Page 9)
SPAIN: Reshuffle of bishops will permit the church
to push social reform. (Page 10)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Harassments of President's sus-
pected antagonists generate increasing political
discontent. (Page 11)
PERU-CUBA: Request for OAS review of sanctions on.
Cuba (Page 12)
TURKEY: Erim asked to form new government (Page 13)
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C INDIA-PAKISTAN: Fighting in the West report-
edly has intensified, while the Pakistanis continue
bitterly to contest Indian gains in the East.
Indian forces in East Pakistan continued to
gain ground yesterday. They captured the airfield
and military base at Jessore, but the town itself
was still being contested. The Indians also claimed
to have taken Sylhet town in the northeast and to
be moving on Jamalpur in the north. The Pakistanis
apparently are still holding out in Hilli and Comilla.
With the Mukti Bahini holding sway over much
of the countryside., particularly in the northwest
and to the south of. Dacca, the Indians and guerril-
las now probably control about half the province.
According to Indian radio reports, as areas are
"liberated" they are being turned over to the Mukti
Bahini for administration.
There is no good evidence yet, however, that
Pakistani forces in East Pakistan are falling into
disarray or abandoning military discipline. In fact,
the Indians have apparently suffered fairly heavy
casualties in some encounters as the Pakistanis con-
tinue to offer stubborn resistance.
In the West, Indian officials have indicated
some concern over the Pakistani offensive in Indian
Kashmir and have admitted the loss of the town of
Chhamb near the. border. The Pakistanis' other drive
into Kashmir has yet to take Poonch, however, and
their offensive toward Amritsar in India's Punjab
State reportedly has been halted. Indian forces in
turn have penetrated a few miles into West Pakistan
near Sialkot, but the Pakistanis claim to have
stopped this drive. In the Sind area there has been
little further progress by the Indian offensive that
reportedly was mounted to relieve the pressure on
Indian forces farther north. At last report this
drive had penetrated at least 15 miles into West
Pakistan. Both sides continue to make air strikes
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Kalat
*?e[ Indian attack
4-OK Pakistar,i attack
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_U I
AFGHANISTAN
\ * "..w;?T. Doe JAMIMU AND
fRawaIaind KASHMIR
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P K' STAl PUNJAB
~'! Fsiilka Amb
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Peshawar Islamabad P n h
INDIA
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SECRET
C on the western front, but neither has yet gained
the upper hand.
President Yahya Khan moved ahead yesterday
with his plan to establish a civilian coalition gov-
ernment in Pakistan. Islamabad announced that Nurul
Amin, an East Pakistani friendly to the Yahya gov-
ernment, will be prime minister. Leftist West Pak-
istani politician Z. A. Bhutto has been appointed
deputy prime minister and foreign minister.
Peking has denounced India's recognition of
Bangla Desh and has again criticized Moscow for its
role in the crisis, alleging that the Soviets en-
couraged the Indians to invade East Pakistan and
create a Bengali state. Moscow, however, has not
followed New Delhi's lead thus far in recognizing
Bangla Desh and probably will hold off doing so in
order to avoid a rupture in diplomatic relations
with Islamabad.
The UN General Assembly last night voted 104
to 11 to,accept a US-supported resolution calling
for both a-cease-fire and withdrawal of troops.
Despite the impressive margin of the vote, it is
likely to have little effect because India has in-
dicated it will disregard this type of resolution.
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CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area
?UAipong
Cittnang
26 E Suspected AA
Enemy tondications"
Tuol Leap. FUU110IzuIty < ''
Airfield 0,M P &H
Skoun
. Komp mongar
Th
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CAMBODIA: The Communists are continuing to
strengthen their positions west of Phnom Penh.
US aerial observers continue to note extensive
Communist fortification efforts. Fresh enemy trench-
ing and bunker construction has been observed along
Route 26 near the headquarters of the North Viet-
namese 101D Regiment, and several suspected 12.7-mm
antiaircraft positions have been located in the same
area. These measures indicate that the Communists
are trying to counter the tactical air support en-
joyed by government forces.
Fighting in most of the Phnom Penh area has
been relatively light in the past few days. Gov-
ernment efforts to counter the Communist presence
continue to be ineffectual. Phnom Penh was shelled
on 7 December. Only three mortar or rocket rounds
fell on the city, and casualties and damage were
light. Pochentong-airfield was also hit but re-
mains open to both military and civil air traffic.
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Opposition criticism of the armed
forces is likely to strengthen President Allende's
hand at least temporarily against his critics.
Allende quickly took offense over taunts by a
conservative newspaper that the Chilean military has
been bought off by the government. The paper has
been closed under the state of emergency decreed
on 2 December, and Allende says that legal charges
will be brought against those responsible for the
defamation. More important, his attack on the
"besmirchers of the armed forces' historic tradi-
tion" will help to drive a wedge between the newly
aggressive Chilean opposition groups and the mili-
tary, whose support is one of Allende's top prior-
ities. A Christian Democratic spokesman's demand
that the commandant of the national police resign
because his men attacked women marchers instead of
their leftist assailants at the demonstration on 1
December may also prove counterproductive, in that
it diverts attention from attempts to lay the blame
for police conduct on the administration.
Communist Party chief Corvalan has announced
that, since the governing Popular Unity coalition
has thus far been too lenient, the government will
take the offensive against "fascist bands." His
tough tone, however, is belied by an overture to
leftist elements of the opposition and by cautious
Communist tactics on the unsettled labor front.
Allende and the Communists still appear to prefer
to depend on harsh words, on legal restraints in-
volving the armed forces, and on their opponents'
own miscalculations and divisions. They shy away
from the more violent repression advocated by ex-
treme leftists.
Allende carefully is leaving announcement of
any measures taken under the state of emergency to
the military commander, Major General Agusto
Pinochet. The curfew was lifted on 7 December, but
the state of emergency is still in effect in Santi-
ago Province and, according to Pinochet, may last
for six months.
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LIBYA-UK: The Libyan Government announced yes-
terday that it has decided to withdraw its assets
from the UK in retaliation for British complicity
in Iran's occupation of three Arab islands in the
Persian Gulf. The subsequent nationalization of
British Petroleum (BP) Exploration Company in Libya
probably is a further expression of Libyan pique.
BP accounts for eight percent of Libyan oil
production, which in turn is five percent of BP's
world-wide production. The Libyan announcement did
not indicate what, if any, compensation would be
offered.
Libya's financial assets in the UK probably
are no more than $400 to $500 million. The UK could
pay out this amount with little difficulty at this
time. As a result of speculation on international
exchange rate realignments, the Bank of England
added about $400 million, and possibly more, to its
reserves in November alone. Moreover, the bank
probably would welcome an outflow of funds, the
effect of which would be some depreciation of the
pound.
Although Libya's action will not have any sig-
nificant monetary effect on the UK at this time, the
West faces a potential for serious financial impact.
of such irrational acts. Reserves of the Arab oil-
producing countries are expected by the mid-1970s
to amount to some $25 billion, about one quarter of
which will be held by Libya.
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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POLAND: First secretary Edward Gierek's re-
port to the party congress outlines visions of af-
fluence without revealing a specific program to
make them a reality.
Gierek said the management and policy errors
that led to the worker riots last year had been
overcome and that the party must now increase the
autonomy of government and economic agencies. He
also said, however, that the party is providing
more instruments to control these bodies. Gierek
was purposely vague because "the leading role of
the party" has been jealously guarded by the mid-
dle and lower levels of the party apparatus and
carefully monitored by Moscow.
Although Gierek's personal position seems
strong, his ill-defined programs suggest that he
does not feel free to go very far in introducing
innovations in Polish society. Even through elec-
tions to top party bodies at the end of the con-
gress will provide Gierek with more supporters, he
probably will continue his gradual approach to the
problems of the Polish consumer, since this is the
only prudent course open to him.
There is no guarantee the populace will be as
patient. It has been lulled with some minor im-
provements in the standard of living, promises of
a brighter future, and appeals to Polish national-
ism. However, signs of tension persist in the Bal-
tic coast cities. According to one report, dock-
yard workers in Gdansk are organizing a march next
week to commemorate those who lost their lives dur-
ing the civil disorders last year. If Gierek fol-
lows previous patterns, he will send a regime
spokesman to Gdansk to keep the affair in proper
channels..
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NIGERIA-GUINEA: Lagos apparently has been
shipping military supplies to Conakry since at
least last September.
the materiel consists mainly of uniforms
and obsolete Soviet small arms and ammunition no
longer needed by the Nigerian Army. The shipments,
which are gifts from Nigeria, are expected to con-
tinue at monthly intervals.
Guinea's President Toure fears another Portu-
guese-led attack on Conakry because of his backing
for the insurgents in neighboring Portuguese Guinea,
and he repeatedly.has requested. Nigerian assistance.
Nigeria's increased involvement with Guinea over the
past year is in keeping with General Gowon's ambi-
tions for his country. to play a leading role in.
Africa and .-n hA counted among its "Progressive"
elements.
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SPAIN: The reshuffle of bishops announced last
weekend will permit the church to move forward on
its program of social reform.
The government, which has a voice in ecclesias-
tical appointments in Spain, appears to have con-
ceded more than the church did in the designation
of a majority of liberal bishops to head seven dio-
ceses. The most significant change was the appoint-
ment of Cardinal Enrique y Tarancon as bishop of
Madrid-Alcala, Spain's most important diocese. An
advocate of an active church social policy which
conflicts with the government's conservative labor
policy, Tarancon replaces a supporter of the status
quo who died last May.
The principal victory for the government was
the transfer of the liberal Bishop Cirarda from
Santander, where he also had responsibility for
Bilbao and the Basque area, to the deep southern
province of Cordoba. Cirarda sympathized with the
nationalism and labor grievances of his fellow
Basques. His removal represents a concession to
government hard-liners, who have been demanding
Cirarda's transfer ever since he expressed disap-
proval of the government's tactics in the trial of
Basque nationalists at Burgos a year ago.
With relatively liberal men now occupying the
principal ecclesiastical posts, the church is in a
better position to work with those political groups
both within and outside the government who want a
stronger role for labor in Spain. As part of the
price for the government's concurrence in these
liberal appointments, the church may have reached
an understanding that it will confine its push for
reforms to the social rather than the political
field.
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MALAGASY REPUBLIC: President Tsiranana's at-
tempts to root out suspected antagonists are gen-
erating increasing political discontent.
Security authorities are continuing their in
vestigation into an "anti-government plot" allegedly
uncovered in October, when officials arrested 30
persons accused of being members of a "Maoist-in-
spired." revolutionary movement with cells through-
out the island. Searches recently carried out at
the University of Tananarive have resulted in the
arrest of two--possibly three--professors. These
actions,.which have prompted vigorous protests from
both students and professors, may bring renewed stu-
dent disorders.
Two army. lieutenants have also been arrested,
and General.Andriamahazo, generally considered next
in line for the post of commanding general of the
armed forces, is said to be under suspicion because
he did; not report-the plot immediately to Tsiranana.
Widespread arrests and searches have also been car-
ried out against Catholic priests, members of the
small opposition party,. and French citizens.
The Maoist plot, according to the government,
is separate from the case of former vice president
Andre Resampa, which brought about the expulsion of
the-US ambassador.. Resampa, Tsiranana's one-time
heir apparent, was arrested in June on charges of
plotting. Tsiranana's purge of Resampa supporters
in the ruling SocialDemocratic Party had already
resulted in arrests of government and party offi-
cials.
The relative secrecy and general lack of legal-
ities that have characterized these operations have
created considerable uncertainty about Tsiranana's
judgments. None of the persons involved is likely
to pose any serious threat to Tsiranana, whose eas-
ily aroused suspicions in part led him to institute
these harassments.
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PERU-CUBA: Peru intends to request that the
OAS meet next week to discuss the economic and dip-
lomatic sanctions imposed on Cuba. The matter would
be examined informally by the general committee of
the Permanent Council on Monday- then a resolution
would be submitted on 17 December giving "freedom
of action" to OAS members to lift sanctions if they
so desire. The Peruvian ambassador assumes that
the council itself would not meet on the question
before January, at which time--under a rotating
system--Chile will be in the chair. Whatever the
outcome, Peru is expected to resume diplomatic re-
lations with Cuba after the OAS concludes its con-
sideration of the matter, since the Peruvian Gov-
ernment considers such action to be in its own best
interests. A majority favoring the resolution is
possible. In any event, other countries such as
Ecuador are likely to follow Peru's example.I
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TURKEY: President Sunay again has turned to
Prime Minister Erim to form a new government. The
previous government collapsed last Friday following
the resignation of most of the non-political mem-
bers of the cabinet, which took Erim and the mili-
tary leaders by surprise. The technocrats probably
resigned because they realized that the government
as then constituted could not push the pending re-
form program through Parliament over conservative
opposition. The new cabinet probably will reflect.
more closely the political make-up of Parliament
and may also offer the politicians a last opportun-
ity to institute military-backed political and eco-
nomic reforms before the armed forces decide they
have to take over.
8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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